Oklahoma State 42-28 UCF (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: UCF · Oklahoma State

UCF3-328

No. 18 Oklahoma State4-142Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla. · Crowd 52,168

No. 18 Oklahoma State beat UCF 42-28.

We had UCF favored. Oklahoma State won.

Next: UCF vs BYU, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · UCF underdog by 6.5

Next: Oklahoma State lost to Houston 35-32, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

Can't let us within the 5 yard line, Jenkins can complete it from that close

Q2 0:42 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Jenkins fumbles, Jackson returns it for a TD, Oklahoma State leads 35-21 (Q4, 10:32). Oklahoma State went from 80% to 98% to win. Fans right then: “I remember when Oklahoma State had “the biggest upset in College Football history” but now 4 weeks later Nebraska is looking for “the…” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma State a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma State was a 10.5-point favorite) put it at 80%.

Favored the whole way: Oklahoma State never fell below 56%.

UCF never had better than a 44% chance.

FinalOklahoma State 42-28 UCFOklahoma State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:08Jenkins 1-yd TD pass to Brousseau, UCF goes ahead 7-0Oklahoma State 74% → 62% (−12)
2Q4 10:32FumbleJenkins fumbles, Jackson returns it for a TD, Oklahoma State leads 35-21Oklahoma State 80% → 98% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:08Jenkins 1-yd TD pass to Brousseau, UCF goes ahead 7-0UCF 26% → 38% (+12)
2Q4 10:32FumbleJenkins fumbles, Jackson returns it for a TD, Oklahoma State leads 35-21UCF 20% → 2% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 4:06Mestemaker throws touchdown pass to Bowick, giving Oklahoma State the leadDrew Mestemaker passes bring a tear to my eye.r/CFB game threadMestemaker is so gone after this year. Dude has poise in the pocket and every physical trait you're looking for in a QB.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:42Quoted at the top of the page.damn why do the knights gotta do this to me every weekr/CFB game thread
Q4 11:11Jenkins fumbles, OSU recovers for touchdown, fans debate backward pass rulingBackwards pass lmao refs can't save everything for your/CFB game thread
Q4 8:55Oklahoma State fans celebrate Mestemaker's touchdown and mock Scott FrostI remember when Oklahoma State had “the biggest upset in College Football history” but now 4 weeks later Nebraska is looking for “the biggest upset of the season”r/CFB game threadMestemaker is gonna be a first rounder ALONE on his RPO fake handoff, it fools everyone, every time.r/CFB game thread

Oklahoma State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Oklahoma State -10.5), at 84% for Oklahoma State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oklahoma State or UCF flair (437 and 344); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Oklahoma State scored on 6 of its 10 drives; UCF on 4 of its 11.

Oklahoma State’s drives are teal, UCF’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From UCF’s side

UCF’s best moment: Jenkins 1-yd TD pass to Brousseau, UCF goes ahead 7-0 (Q1 10:08). It lifted UCF’s win chance by 12 points.

How UCF fans took it: “Bit of both?” r/CFB game thread

“That's behind by half a foot. Super close.”

An Oklahoma State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

UCF fans

frost“Frost must get some kind of perverse pleasure in calling a draw on 3rd and 10, there is no other explanation.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: half, ball, need, don.

What it cost

UCF’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

UCF · lost1% → ▼0%

Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

UCF · lost1% → ▼0%

Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

UCF plays vs BYU on Sat Oct 24 with a 0% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Oklahoma State 42, UCF 28

Oklahoma State covered −10.5 by 3.5. The total, 70, went over 53.5.

Team totals	UCF	Oklahoma State
Total yards	375	414
Passing	30 of 42, 265 yds	19 of 28, 304 yds
Rushing	41 for 110 yds	32 for 110 yds
First downs	27	22
Third down	7 of 16	4 of 9
Fourth down	4 of 5	1 of 2
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	4 for 33 yds	3 for 35 yds
Time of possession	35:15	24:45

UCF leaders

Passing Keyone Jenkins 30 of 42, 265 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Duke Watson 21 for 79 yds; Taevion Swint 7 for 27 yds
Receiving Joshua Derry 11 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Caden Piening 7 for 60 yds, 1 TD

Oklahoma State leaders

Passing Drew Mestemaker 19 of 28, 304 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Caleb Hawkins 23 for 83 yds; Ayo Adeyi 4 for 21 yds
Receiving Justin Bowick 6 for 98 yds, 1 TD; Miles Coleman 4 for 69 yds

No rain, gusts to 25 mph

79° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 12 mph from the south-southwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 25

A 25 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 87% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 65 other games played at Boone Pickens Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 71°, with about 7 in 10 games between 60° and 85°.

October game-day temperatures at Boone Pickens Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 10:32 left1:44 p.m.

UCF 21, Oklahoma State 35 · Oklahoma State 98% to win

no rain · wind 13 mph from the south-southwest, mostly across the field, gusts to 22 · 89°

Jenkins fumbles, Jackson returns it for a TD, Oklahoma State leads 35-21

Measured at Stillwater Muni airport, 2.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

UCF · 3-2

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 67th now, up 36 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 8-point win over TCU as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 17-27 @ HoustonTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 10 as a 10.5-point underdog

W 21-13 vs TCU #49 of 668

won by 8 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 44-30 vs Georgia State #128 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 #48 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 73-6 vs Bethune-Cookman #184 of 668

won by 67 as a 43.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Oklahoma State · 3-1

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 142nd now, up 120 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, capped by a 17-point win over West Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 41-24 @ West Virginia #150 of 668

won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-0 vs Murray State #260 of 668

won by 59 as a 56.5-point favorite

W 39-31 vs OregonTop 25 #5 of 668

won by 8 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 10-24 @ Tulsa #113 of 668

lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

Week by week

Oklahoma State

Wk 1Lat Tulsa10-24
Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0
Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24

UCF

Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6
Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12
Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30
Wk 4Wvs TCU21-13
Wk 5Lat Houston17-27

Power rating by week

UCF is rated 5.6 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against UCF, 69 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 13th percentile · UCF defense, 82nd
Oklahoma State’s success rate against UCF’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 95th percentile · UCF defense, 55th
Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against UCF’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 93rd percentile · UCF defense, 56th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UCFOklahoma State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCF leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2023 · UCF has won the last 2

2025UCF 17-14
2023UCF 45-3

Each line is Oklahoma State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oklahoma State fans are in a better mood than UCF fans (76th vs 29th among FBS fanbases), even with UCF favored.

Oklahoma State favored by 10.5 · Total 53.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma State by 10.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Oklahoma State.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oklahoma State is worth +4.3 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.

65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,060 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

UCF 45, Oklahoma State 3Nov 11, 2023

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Oklahoma State5th1-0
UCF6th1-1

Full Big 12 standings

No. 18 Oklahoma State beats UCF 42-28