UCF 21-13 TCU (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: TCU · UCF

TCU2-213

UCF3-121Final

Sat, Sep 26 · FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Fla. · Crowd 43,212

UCF beat TCU 21-13.

We had TCU favored. UCF won.

Next: TCU lost to BYU 17-10, Sat Oct 3

Next: UCF lost to Houston 27-17, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

I’ll be damned. They got it done.

Q2 7:12 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Jenkins 19-yd TD pass to Piening, UCF goes ahead 14-10 (Q2, 4:58). UCF went from 41% to 63% to win. Fans right then: “I’ll be damned. They got it done.” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCF a 40% chance, and the closing betting line (UCF was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.

A tight one: UCF bottomed out at 34% and won.

Up to 66% in the second quarter, then TCU lost it.

FinalUCF 21-13 TCUUCF wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 6:48Payne 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7UCF 62% → 45% (−17)
2Q2 4:58Jenkins 19-yd TD pass to Piening, UCF goes ahead 14-10UCF 41% → 63% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 6:48Payne 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7TCU 38% → 55% (+17)
2Q2 4:58Jenkins 19-yd TD pass to Piening, UCF goes ahead 14-10TCU 59% → 37% (−22)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:43UCF fans blame Jenkins after his rush causes a turnover on downs3 possessions in a row are Keyone Jenkins fault not converting. Get him out of here.r/CFB game thread
Q2 7:12UCF fans celebrate Jenkins touchdown pass to Piening and TCU penaltyQuoted at the top of the page.Getting close to last call for your unlimited hot diggity dogs, so be sure you get on that. 5 minutes of game time is maybe 10 more dogs if you're hustlingr/CFB game thread
Q2 4:11UCF fans mock Craig's interception and criticize Jenkins' running decisionsDid you see how much the ball was moving around away from his body while he was running? There's a reason the ball was punched out beforer/CFB game thread
Q2 1:24UCF fans roast Jenkins after he fumbles on a sackLooks like the Jenkins doomers like me were right AGAINr/CFB game threadPocket collapsing and bro LITERALLY did a statute of liberty pose.r/CFB game thread
Q4 12:25Chambers scores touchdown, UCF leads 21-13, fans debate going for twoOur line isn’t good enough to get a push in those obvious situations, but Chambers isr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:15UCF defense intercepts Craig, sparking Grinch praise and Dykes criticismALEX GRINCH REDEMPTION ARCr/CFB game threadEXTEND SONNY DYKES NOWr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:08UCF punts with eight seconds left to secure the 21-13 victoryDecided to not risk a TO of injury so we did some nonsense to punt with 10 secs left and it worked outr/CFB game thread

UCF’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (TCU -3.5), at 49% for UCF (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCF or TCU flair (477 and 70); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCF’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCF scored on 3 of its 10 drives; TCU on 3 of its 11.

UCF’s drives are teal, TCU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From TCU’s side

TCU’s best moment: Payne 1-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q1 6:48). It lifted TCU’s win chance by 17 points.

How TCU fans took it: “i hate this program but more importantly i hate myself” r/CFB game thread

“Disney currently getting a whole video and annual pass holder segment during the break. They may have given us some GOOD money”

A UCF fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

TCU fans

craig“Harvard about to send a cease and desist for calling Jaden Craig an alum given the lack of IQ on display”

fire“All the undisciplined penalties, right on Sonny’s lap. Fire him in Orlando”

Too close to call on 57% of plays.

What it cost

TCU’s chance to make the playoff fell from 5% to 3%.

Make the playoff

TCU · lost5% → ▼3%

UCF · won1% → ▲2%

Win the conference

TCU · lost5% → ▼2%

UCF · won1% → ▲2%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UCF 21, TCU 13

UCF covered +3.5 by 11.5. The total, 34, stayed under 48.5.

Team totals	TCU	UCF
Total yards	343	266
Passing	25 of 40, 310 yds	19 of 20, 160 yds
Rushing	27 for 33 yds	33 for 106 yds
First downs	18	17
Third down	7 of 16	3 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 1
Turnovers	4	2
Penalties	11 for 86 yds	4 for 45 yds
Time of possession	32:49	27:11

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 25 of 40, 310 yds, 2 INT
Rushing Jeremy Payne 15 for 48 yds, 1 TD; Amante Martin 3 for 8 yds
Receiving Jordan Dwyer 5 for 100 yds; Jeremy Scott 5 for 80 yds

UCF leaders

Passing Keyone Jenkins 19 of 20, 160 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Duke Watson 13 for 57 yds; Taevion Swint 7 for 29 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Joshua Derry 3 for 41 yds; Caden Piening 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

83° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the northeast, gusts to 20

September game-day temperatures at FBC Mortgage Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 4:58 left4:41 p.m.

TCU 10, UCF 14 · UCF 63% to win

no rain · wind 1 mph from the southwest · 83°

Jenkins 19-yd TD pass to Piening, UCF goes ahead 14-10

Measured at Orlando/herndon airport, 9.5 miles away, and Sanford/orlando airport, 12 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

TCU · 2-1

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 46th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 31-7 vs Arkansas State #151 of 668

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Grambling #184 of 668

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

L 10-15 vs North Carolina #127 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Last three games

UCF · 2-1

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 94th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 44-30 vs Georgia State #128 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 #48 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 73-6 vs Bethune-Cookman #184 of 668

won by 67 as a 43.5-point favorite

Week by week

UCF

Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6
Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12
Wk 3Wvs Georgia State44-30

TCU

Wk 1Lvs North Carolina10-15
Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7
Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7

Power rating by week

TCU is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: TCU’s rushing EPA against UCF, 75 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

TCU’s rushing EPA against UCF’s defense
TCU offense, 9th percentile · UCF defense, 84th
UCF’s EPA/play against TCU’s defense
UCF offense, 42nd percentile · TCU defense, 95th
TCU’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
TCU offense, 66th percentile · UCF defense, 82nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TCUUCF

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

UCF leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2024 · UCF won the last meeting

2024UCF 35-34

Each line is UCF’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

UCF fans are in a better mood than TCU fans (56th vs 3rd among FBS fanbases), even with TCU favored.

TCU favored by 3.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

TCU by 3.5, on the usual path until Q3 3:25

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward TCU.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.

TCU at UCF · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando

82°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
81weather score, Mixed
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At FBC Mortgage Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 81 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 85, Mixed
12:45 pm: 82, Mixed
2 pm: 80, Mixed
3:30 pm: 81, Mixed (this game)
4 pm: 83, Mixed
5 pm: 91, Comfortable
6 pm: 97, Comfortable
7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

UCF is worth +6.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 87th percentile.

74% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (35-12 home, 19-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 1,001 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

UCF5th0-0
TCU7th0-0

Full Big 12 standings

UCF beats TCU 21-13