2coordinators
TCU: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Sonny Dykes enters his fourth season with a 9-4 record, but TCU's uneasy fanbase questions if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain the 2022 national title-game legacy.
TCU9-4AP #24Latest
TCU's faithful can't agree on where this is headed.
belief cooled ↓ 4.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
51/100 · 111 mentions
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
4% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 25 pts
~ our readThe model
#37
CFB Zeitgeist · +5.5
✓ measured2Hope-Doping·Offseason
TCU got abandoned when the Southwest Conference died, wandered three leagues for two decades, then walked into the national title game in 2022 — and now treats every purple Saturday like a debt the sport still owes Fort Worth.
AP Top 25#24 AP
The chip is the SWC breakup itself: the in-state powers grabbed the conference seats and left Fort Worth out in the cold, and fans believe TCU has spent thirty years proving the schools that abandoned…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - TCU
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production61%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#32 nationally247 composite 745.0
Portal Additions12Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses14Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss3NFL Draft departures (3)
Recruiting Reload#47Development class
CBin 2 - Teon Parksout 3 - Cam JamersonDowngrade
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Cheta Ofiliout 2 - Paul OyewaleEven
current room: 242 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Jeremy Scottout 2 - Gekyle BakerDowngrade
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 1 - Landon Walkerout 2 - Nate PalmerEven
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 2 - Noah McKinneyout 0Need Filled
current room: 307 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 0out 2 - Rasheed JacksonStarter Risk
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs North Carolina · Sat Aug 29 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
TCU is the program that made a national title-game appearance in 2022 and proved Big 12 outlier status is a feature, not a bug.
Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Solid
TCU Faces Roster Challenges but Maintains Bowl Eligibility Path
Despite losing three NFL draft picks and facing significant portal churn, TCU remains on track for a bowl-eligible season with moderate continuity and a balanced transfer profile.
- Roster reloadTCU lost three NFL draft picks and experienced a net loss of two transfers, but the team added 12 incoming transfers, including key additions at IOL and OT positions.
- ScheduleTCU's base scenario projects a 9-4 record with four losses, keeping the team bowl eligible despite challenges from portal departures and draft losses.
Data as of 2026-08-04
·
Validated against program evidence
SuperFrog is in stasis.
TCU · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What TCU's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
TCU enters 2026 — the 12-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Sonny Dykes’ 4th season sustain the 9-4 winning record that made a national title game appearance feel possible?
what happenedTCU enters 2026 rated No. 37 in 2025 SP+ (+8.3), down 12 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
recruitingthis cycle~readnew
Chad Woodfork (EDGE, #101 nationally) headlines TCU's top-24 class in a 61% production return year after a 9-4 season — Dykes' fourth straight elite Big 12 haul.
what happenedTCU signed a top-24 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 recruiting class in the Big 12
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Eric McAlister is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle✓ factnew
Jon Denman gets meaningfully MORE work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games -- not just mop-up snaps.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Sonny Dykes enters his fourth season with a 9-4 record, but TCU's uneasy fanbase questions if the coordinator-driven reshaping can sustain the 2022 national title-game legacy.
what happenedTCU: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Jon Denman sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Joseph Manjack is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
Died downTCU's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The Offseason Ledger · TCU
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Recruiting
Hunter Black commits to TCU
OT pressure flagged, three draft departures bleeding the front — Black's edge commit hits a structural gap in a class that needs the trenches to hold if the Big 12 title talk is real.
- Recruiting
3-star LB commits to TCU
Class sitting at #24 nationally and Dykes keeps stacking linebackers — three draft departures opened real snaps, and this is how you build depth before the Big 12 schedule punishes you for not having it.
Transfer portal snapshot
-5.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: -5.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)IOL+7.4
need not filled
OT-7.2
starter risk
TE-4.3
low confidence
LB+3.6
low confidence
WR-3.6
CB-3.5
S+2.4
P+1.0
low confidence
RB-1.0
QB-0.7
EDGE-0.1
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Carter Buck
#317 national
★★★★☆
Jesse Ford
#364 national
★★★★☆
Vincent Johnson Jr.
#469 national
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
36th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market≈
36th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#40 in field+25000
Big 12 title#9 in market+1700
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
TCU · Next-Season Outcome Band
TCU · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · TCU · Season outlook Confidence
TCU enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
TCU enters 2026 rated No. 37 in 2025 SP+ (+8.3), down 12 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
skeptical — but there's a bull case
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers1 bull take
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 45% volume · mostly neutral
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
TCU enters 2026 — the 12-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Sonny Dykes’ 4th season sustain the 9-4 winning record that made a national title game appearance feel possible?
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: TCU enters 2026 rated No. 37 in 2025 SP+ (+8.3), down 12 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Former TCU Star Sends Powerful Message to USC Trojans Linemen Ab” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Former TCU Star Sends Powerful Message to USC Trojans Linemen About Gary Patterson”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Din-Mbuh, Taylor-Whitfield Named to Outland Trophy Preseason Watch List”
TCU Athletics · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“These five TCU football players have stood out so far in fall camp - Fort Worth Star-Telegram”
news · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“2026 TCU Countdown to Kickoff: 24 Days Until Horned Frog Football”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“4 Horned Frogs Under Massive Pressure Could Have a MASSIVE Impac” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“4 Horned Frogs Under Massive Pressure Could Have a MASSIVE Impact on TCU Offense”
localmemphis.com · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Ranking TCU Football's 2026 Opponents From Easiest to Toughest”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
💬The boards45% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (60%).›
This event was in 127 of 283 board posts (45%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Which TCU Horned Frogs made the Sporting News All-America teams? By Lawrence Dow The Sporting News, celebrating 140 years of publishing, has re-released its All-America team"
Killer Frogs ~ fan take
"These five TCU football players have stood out so far in fall camp By Steven Johnson Fort Worth Star-Telegram With the completion of its first full padded practice Tuesday, TCU foo"
Killer Frogs ~ fan take
Board health this week (121 posts): 17% positive · 56% neutral · 27% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · TCU · Recruiting Confidence
TCU signed the top-24 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.
TCU signed a top-24 recruiting class. It is the No. 1 recruiting class in the Big 12. A class in the top 25 means the program competed nationally. Attrition and development are the next story. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers19 bull takes
💬 fans: 9% volume · mostly neutral
Developing2 new this week
6 days agoJudge grants injunction for Class of 2022 to play fifth season — FootballScoop.com
6 days agoLincoln Riley Shares a Classic Mike Leach Story — news
last weekTCU Making Major Move to Become a Big 12 Powerhouse and Elite Tier Recruiter — 13newsnow.com
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Caris Sela Recruit
“Football: 2027 RB Caris Sela commits to TCU” — MSN · 2026-06-22
Rontrae Carter Recruit
“Football: 2027 3-star DB Rontrae Carter commits to TCU” — Frogs O' War · 2026-06-30
Aer Lingus
“TG4 Secures Free-to-Air Broadcast of 2026 Aer Lingus College Football Classic” — Sport for Business · 2026-07-22
Deion Sanders Recruit
“Deion Sanders’ Recruiting Surge Puts TCU Horned Frogs on Red Alert” — roundtable.io · 2026-07-15
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Chad Woodfork (EDGE, #101 nationally) headlines TCU's top-24 class in a 61% production return year after a 9-4 season — Dykes' fourth straight elite Big 12 haul.
Next · what to watch
The obvious read is 'more talent.' The non-obvious one: a big class intensifies the depth-chart squeeze, which is itself a portal pressure the signing-day headline never mentions. Watch attrition and portal balance once camp opens — early enrollees and portal departures will tell you which of these names actually stick.
Source of record: TCU signed a top-24 recruiting class — the No. 1 recruiting class in the Big 12.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers19 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
“Judge grants injunction for Class of 2022 to play fifth season”
FootballScoop.com · 2026-07-31 · read ↗
“Lincoln Riley Shares a Classic Mike Leach Story”
Heartland College Sports · 2026-07-31 · read ↗
“TCU Making Major Move to Become a Big 12 Powerhouse and Elite Tier Recruiter”
13newsnow.com · 2026-07-28 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“2027 CB Jewellz Tapp commits to TCU: 'I felt the love and how ba” — the real counter.›
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
“2027 CB Jewellz Tapp commits to TCU: 'I felt the love and how bad they wanted me there'”
On3 · 2026-07-07 · read ↗
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (60%).›
This event was in 25 of 283 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Angosta, Swathwood Primed for U.S. Amateur Championship - TCU Athletics FORT WORTH – Two TCU upperclassmen will soon tee it up in a showcase of the sport's aspiring profession"
Killer Frogs ~ fan take
"NCAA plans to appeal federal judge's injunction granting fifth year of eligibility to Class of 2022 student-athletes Ian Casselberry The chief legal officer for the NCA"
Killer Frogs ~ fan take
Board health this week (121 posts): 17% positive · 56% neutral · 27% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs North Carolina · neutral site
Season line6.5 winsover -155
StrongPass-first, spreadSolid
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Baylor
Hopeful+5
Revivalry
SMU
Hopeful+12
Battle for the Iron Skillet
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
24
TX · 22CA · 1GA · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 22 commits. National footprint reaching 3 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
98 signees across 7 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats USC 30-27 (OT)
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats SMU 35-24
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats TCU 44-13
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Voter spread
32 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #16, Spencer Ripchik (The Dominion Post), to #25, Zach Klein (WSB). 34 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 6 national broadcast, 5 ESPN
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 4 afternoon, 5 primetime
Fumble luck
55% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~51% league baseline.
6 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 15 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
26% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
12 interceptions of 47 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 12 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
88 penalties committed, 64 drawn on opponents — ceding 241 yards of field position.
806 penalty yards committed vs. 565 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on TCU
51
Δ -4.5 vs last wk
111
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Hypnotoad"
— TCU fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence0 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
CCampus paper
KKiller Frogs
BBluesky
YYouTube
What little we hear
Only 7 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
Bettors+0.04
Millennials+0.04
Analytics crowd+0.04
Gen Z+0.04
National take+0.04
Die-hards+0.04
Casuals+0.04
How TCU fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
209 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readTCU fans are leaning negative, but it's more feel than fact right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 121 posts from TCU fans this week.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
program directionLimited signal that season
fans believe the team's performance is disappointing
Frogs aren’t just losing, they’re losing in boring ways. The coaching carousel is too wild this year, but next year has to be make or break for Sonny.
This is the worst ST unit the Frogs have had in 25 years, minimum. Can't kick, punt, return, or stop returns. It's brutally bad.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Nov 9, 2025–Nov 16, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 3
“This game is a sicko's dream, midnight ET start time and a terrible call short of a 2-0 halftime”— r/CFB
Week 5
“Gosh TCU is so frusterating sometimes. I love this team but they need to get better at alot of things to be able to compete for a big 12 championship. Offensive line has looked bad and no running game. Last week with our McAllister in the game our offense wasnt able to do anyt…”— r/CFB
Week 7
Week 8
Week 18
“Most nuts game I’ve been to this postseason THE GAME IS NOT OVER THE GAME IS NOT OVER …the game is over…. I lowkey robbed myself because I didn’t celebrate. I was convinced he was out”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via Killer Frogs
- FWST: Which TCU Horned Frogs made the Sporting News All-America teams?
- FWST: These five TCU football players have stood out so far in fall camp
- GoFrogs: Din-Mbuh, Taylor-Whitfield Named to Outland Trophy Preseason Watch List
- GoFrogs: Johnson Added to Bronko Nagurski Trophy Preseason Watch List
- SB Nation: 2026 TCU Football Season Preview: Cornerbacks
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial8 posts
Diehard fan boards15 posts
News & campus coverage11 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
TCU fans this offseason 25% of posts bring up another team#28 of 43 saltiest · mostly about Texas
Who TCU fans can’t stop bringing up
- Texas9%
- Baylor4%
- Texas Tech4%
- SMU2%
- North Texas2%
share of TCU’s football posts that mention each team
Fanbase Health Index · TCU · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · TCU · high confidenceGrowing (63)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 9-4 (69% win rate)68
Volume — 539 effective signal-N85
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.00 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
267 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
frogs
×437.9 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
frogs×437.9n=19
hoover×133.2n=13
horned×479.3n=13
horned frogs×553.1n=12
worth×17.4n=10
Characteristic — 3–10×
commits×5.5n=26
lands×6.8n=20
Mild — <3×
offensive×2.8n=15
line×2.3n=18
big×2.1n=21
“GoFrogs: Holaday Returns; Joins Coaching Staff”
board · fan post, verbatim
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#33 / 138 · 77th pct30.7
Pts allowed/game#69 / 138 · 51st pct25.3
Total yards/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct421.8
Rush yards/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct131.8
Pass yards/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct290.1
Yards allowed/gm#89 / 136 · 35th pct379.2
Rush yds allowed/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct133.5
Sacks#76 / 136 · 45th pct24
Interceptions#22 / 136 · 85th pct14
3rd-down conv#14 / 136 · 90th pct47.4%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5484421.8/gm6.14/play#32 / 136 · 77th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp4929379.2/gm5.56/play#89 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Rush yards
Team1713131.8/gm1.92/play#88 / 136 · 36th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp1736133.5/gm1.96/play#44 / 136 · 68th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Rush carries
Team43333.3/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp46235.5/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush TDs
Team201.5/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp100.8/gm#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Net pass yards
Team3771290.1/gm4.22/play#14 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp3193245.6/gm3.60/play#121 / 136 · 12th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Pass attempts
Team46035.4/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp42432.6/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Completions
Team30623.5/gm#19 / 136 · 87th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp26120.1/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Pass TDs
Team302.3/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp251.9/gm#120 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Passer rating
Team150.8150.8#21 / 136 · 85th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp137.2137.2#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team151.2/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp141.1/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Sacks (def)
Team241.8/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp221.7/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Tackles for loss
Team685.2/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp725.5/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team28822.2/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp26320.2/gm#96 / 136 · 30th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team826.3/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp735.6/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
3rd-down att
Team17313.3/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp18314.1/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
4th-down conv
Team161.2/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp161.2/gm#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
4th-down att
Team251.9/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp302.3/gm#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Time of possession
Team375:1528:52/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp404:4531:08/gm#109 / 136 · 21st pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#53 / 135 · 61st pct12/15 (80.0%)
Extra points51/51
Punting#110 / 136 · 20th pct41.2 avg · 47 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team201.5/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp211.6/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Fumbles lost
Team50.4/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp70.5/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
INT return yards
Team14611.2/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp1239.5/gm#77 / 136 · 44th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Punt ret yds
Team775.9/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp1138.7/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Kick ret yds
Team47036.2/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp51839.8/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team80662.0/gm#23 / 136 · 84th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp56543.5/gm#34 / 136 · 76th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Other
Interceptions (def)#22 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct141.1/gm
Recruiting rating#24 / 138 · 83rd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct229.817.7/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct50.4/gm
Penalties (opp)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct644.9/gm
H1 epa per play#25 / 162 · 85th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct0.30.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#27 / 138 · 81st pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.50.0/gm
Penalties#37 / 136 · 74th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct886.8/gm
Punt ret (opp)#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct110.8/gm
First down pass rate#43 / 215 · 80th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.50.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#49 / 136 · 65th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct70.5/gm
Red zone pass rate#49 / 154 · 69th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.40.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#60 / 143 · 59th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play#66 / 142 · 54th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick returns#68 / 136 · 51st pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct211.6/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#71 / 167 · 58th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#97 / 136 · 29th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct262.0/gm
Punt returns#124 / 136 · 10th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct80.6/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#126 / 136 · 8th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct151.2/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off47.4%#14 / 136 · 90th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def39.9%#74 / 136 · 46th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conversion
Off64.0%#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def53.3%#73 / 136 · 47th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Turnover margin#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct+0.08/gm
Sack rate (def)#96 / 136 · 30th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct5.7%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team544.2/gm#28 / 167 · 84th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp393.0/gm#78 / 166 · 54th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Red zone score %
Team75.9%75.9%#99 / 167 · 41st pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp84.6%84.6%#125 / 166 · 25th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Points / drive
Team2.40.2/gm#35 / 167 · 80th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp1.90.1/gm#69 / 166 · 59th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / drive
Team41.03.2/gm#74 / 167 · 56th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp40.33.1/gm#70 / 166 · 58th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.70.5/gm#69 / 167 · 59th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp6.90.5/gm#136 / 166 · 19th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team8.5%8.5%#29 / 167 · 83rd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp12.3%12.3%#101 / 166 · 40th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#115 / 145 · 21st pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct-5.5%-5.5%
Havoc rate
Team15.5%15.5%#74 / 140 · 48th pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Opp15.5%15.5%#74 / 140 · 48th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct
Standard-downs success
Team49.5%49.5%#56 / 154 · 64th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Opp44.3%44.3%#28 / 172 · 84th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Passing-downs success
Team35.7%35.7%#27 / 153 · 83rd pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Opp32.8%32.8%#106 / 149 · 30th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.72.7#117 / 143 · 19th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Opp2.82.8#63 / 155 · 60th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Stuff rate
Team22.0%22.0%#121 / 143 · 16th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Opp17.4%17.4%#92 / 155 · 41st pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct
Power success rate
Team72.2%72.2%#56 / 137 · 60th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Opp54.5%54.5%#9 / 141 · 94th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off66.5%#23 / 136 · 84th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Def61.6%#64 / 136 · 54th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Yards / attempt
Off8.2#27 / 136 · 81st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def7.5#96 / 136 · 30th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Yards / completion
Off12.3#43 / 136 · 69th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def12.2#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / carry#96 / 136 · 30th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct4.0
Yards / play#32 / 136 · 77th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct6.14
Scoring margin#55 / 136 · 60th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct+5.4/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.41 EPA/play | 10 | 12 | 272 / 413 | 65.9 | 3472 #16 FBS | 8.4 | 29 #9 FBS | 13 | 153.4 | 70.7 | 7.8 | 3.7 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Passer· Money-downBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. saves his best for the money downs Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.1 86th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage11.8% bottom 17th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josh Hoover's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.18 EPA/play | 9 | 3 | 33 / 46 | 71.7 | 282 | 6.1 | 1 | 2 | 121.7 | 23.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.23 EPA/play | 26 | 11 | 110 | 623 | 5.7 | 5 | 51 | 10.3 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.1% (26/425) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share16.7% 78th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 31st to 82nd percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.00 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 97 | 443 | 4.6 | 3 | 75 | 12.2 | 17.6 | 15.2 | 9.1 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Kevorian Barnes's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.19 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 64 | 349 | 5.5 | 6 | 65 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 27.0 | 17.5 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.0 bottom 30th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.4% 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Trent Battle's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.25 EPA/play | 13 | 9 | 50 | 178 | 3.6 | 3 | 16 | 5.8 | 2.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.3 bottom 17th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.7% bottom 18th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jon Denman's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 21 | 7 | 30 | 139 | 4.6 | 0 | 26 | 3.8 | 4.1 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.74 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 72 | 1190 #7 FBS | 16.5 | 10 #12 FBS | 85 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 24.9% (106/425) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.2 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume72 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 79th percentile to the 99th among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.61 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 54 | 730 | 13.5 | 7 #38 FBS | 69 | 12.4 | 12.2 | 18.8% (80/425) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume54 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jordan Dwyer's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.55 EPA/play | 14 | 11 | 44 | 579 | 13.2 | 3 | 51 | 9 | 10.6 | 14.6% (62/425) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 39th percentile to the 71st among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.67 EPA/play | — | 12 | 34 | 319 | 9.4 | 2 | 39 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 9.4% (40/425) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 36th percentile among FBS TEs to the 75th | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.64 EPA/play | 18 | 5 | 16 | 186 | 11.6 | 2 | 41 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 5.4% (23/425) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.2 bottom 39th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ed Small's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.45 EPA/play | 81 | 8 | 13 | 167 | 12.8 | 2 | 27 | 6.7 | 4.8 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.4 bottom 45th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.5 100th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chase Curtis's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 14 | 149 | 10.6 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 2.6 | 4.5% (19/425) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.6 bottom 20th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Major Everhart's full player page | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 12 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 53rd percentile among FBS IDLs to the 80th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 92 | 11 | 24 | 14 | 6.5 | 2 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.1% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ansel Din-Mbuh's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 35 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.8% bottom 27th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tristan Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 34 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 99 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 13 | 130 | 60 | 70 | 11 #74 FBS | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume130 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.5% bottom 36th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 86th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 38th, now back up to 94th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 13 | 88 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume88 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.5% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Namdi Obiazor's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 13 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 4-star, 2023 class View Devean Deal's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 33 | 13 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Max Carroll's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 97 | 12 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 7.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Paul Oyewale's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | — | 11 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2023 class View Zachary Chapman's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 139 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.9% bottom 44th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Bax's full player page | |||||||||
| 27 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 2 | 13 | 96 | 3 | 5 #6 FBS | 3 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.1% bottom 26th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Box Safety to Rover, his CFB Index score moved from the 58th to 99th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Rover | 21 | 11 | 56 | 7 | 4 #23 FBS | 1.5 | 1 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bud Clark's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 26 | 12 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 80th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Vernon Glover's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 7th percentile to the 35th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 4-star, 2023 class View Channing Canada's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 19 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 | 2.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 22th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kylin Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 20 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Jevon McIver Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jordan Lester's full player page | |||||||
| 31 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | |
| 18 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 38 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 11 | 9/12 | 75 | 42/42 | 69 | 41 |
| 34 | 2 | 3/3 | 100 | 9/9 | 18 | 33 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 31 | 13 | 46 | 1907 | 41.5 | 69 | 12 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 9 | 197 | 21.9 | 0 | 30 |
| Balanced Back · -0.25 EPA/play | 13 | 9 | 6 | 147 | 24.5 | 0 | 40 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.61 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 7 | 77 | 11 | 0 | 53 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Eric McAlister
WR
1,190 yds (rec)
2.
Jamel Johnson
S
96.0 tot (def)
3.
Josh Hoover
QB
3,472 yds (pass)
4.
Jordan Dwyer
WR
730 yds (rec)
5.
Devean Deal
EDGE
53.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
26
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Jamel Johnson
S
#5 of 544
Eric McAlister
WR
#7 of 485
Bud Clark
S
#19 of 544
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
LB
#39 of 583
Josh Hoover
QB
#16 of 146
Namdi Obiazor
LB
#80 of 583
+20 more
TCU · 2025 schedule & results9-4Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 56% · 8 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | #36 | #129 | -3.5 | @North Carolina | W 48–14 121 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #45 | #136 | -42 | Abilene Christian | W 42–21 134 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #39 | #18 | -6.5 | SMU | W 35–24 141 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #35 | #23 | +3 | @Arizona State | L 24–27 138 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #30 | #77 | -14.5 | Colorado | W 35–21 132 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #34 | #39 | -2.5 | @Kansas State | L 28–41 138 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #36 | #30 | -3.5 | Baylor | W 42–36 158 | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #35 | #128 | -16.5 | @West Virginia | W 23–17 145 | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #36 | #45 | -7.5 | Iowa State | L 17–20 145 | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #36 | #24 | +3 | @BYU | L 13–44 129 | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #48 | #61 | -1.5 | @HoustonTop 25 win | W 17–14 138 | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #45 | #49 | -3 | Cincinnati | W 45–23 126 | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 31 | #42 | #19 | +4.5 | USC (N) | W 30–27 | 9-4 | 5-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | USC | W 30–27 | — | — | — | +0.299 | 44.6% | 125.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 29 | Cincinnati | W 45–23 | 544 | 0 | 37:55 | +0.338 | 50.0% | 123.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | @Houston | W 17–14 | 426 | 4 | 27:32 | +0.040 | 45.7% | 88.9% | One-score win |
| Nov 16 | @BYU | L 13–44 | 298 | 2 | 23:55 | -0.035 | 35.1% | 132.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | Iowa State | L 17–20 | 432 | 3 | 32:36 | +0.030 | 42.2% | 103.1% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @West Virginia | W 23–17 | 343 | 0 | 34:03 | +0.025 | 32.9% | 143.8% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Baylor | W 42–36 | 427 | 1 | 28:12 | +0.124 | 48.6% | 109.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 11 | @Kansas State | L 28–41 | 448 | 3 | 23:41 | +0.178 | 44.1% | 142.1% | |
| Oct 4 | Colorado | W 35–21 | 369 | 0 | 28:28 | +0.272 | 45.6% | 122.8% | |
| Sep 27 | @Arizona State | L 24–27 | 271 | 3 | 24:13 | +0.116 | 34.5% | 151.7% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | SMU | W 35–24 | 519 | 1 | 31:06 | +0.289 | 39.0% | 170.9% | Most explosive |
| Sep 14 | Abilene Christian | W 42–21 | 490 | 1 | 23:17 | +0.493 | 57.4% | 137.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 2 | @North Carolina | W 48–14 | 542 | 1 | 32:09 | +0.394 | 58.3% | 117.6% | Best success rate |
| Season average (13 games) | 426 | 1.6 | +0.197 | 44.5% | 128.4% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025TCU fields a strong pass-first offense behind a solid defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How TCU actually scores
72nd percentile quality, 35th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
TCU's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 25th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 47th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does TCU hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
63rd percentile success on standard downs, 82nd on passing downs — a 19-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
TCU by half
1st-half offense ranks 85th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 54th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of TCU's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 76th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.44 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
TCU reads strongest in passing epa (top 23%) and rushing epa allowed (top 27%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where TCU sits at the 25th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · TCU
Most Similar Programs · TCUReads Like
BYUTier 3 · Prestige T4 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontMinnesotaTier 3 · Prestige T4 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontOklahoma StateTier 3 · Prestige T4 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · TCU · 2018-present
Strong
66% home win rate vs 50% on the road. margin runs +13.9 better at home. Amon G. Carter Stadium seats 46,000, averaging 99% full (45,529 attendance, 25 games reported).
Home33-17Away21-21
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Eric McAlister (WR) and D'Andre Rogers (TE) split the targets (99/138 vs 39/138) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Eric McAlisterD'Andre Rogers
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
TCU’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: co-A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley (2022) → co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles (2023–2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 17 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Joe Gillespie (2022–2023) → Andy Avalos (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 5 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How TCU’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles (2023–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 57% → 2025: 50% · 7-pt range · #111 of 171 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 51% → 2025: 41% · 10-pt range · #114 of 171 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2023: 49% → 2025: 48% · 5-pt range · #161 of 171 · less than most
Defense: Andy Avalos (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 57% → 2025: 50% · 7-pt range · #135 of 189 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 51% → 2025: 41% · 10-pt range · #135 of 189 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 43% → 2025: 48% · 4-pt range · #184 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, TCU’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.0% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 154-play sample) — mid-pack, 51 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=154 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 64.3%
Venue texture
76°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
TCU's 2014–2025 record is 99-54. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
684-565-50
since 1903 · 122 seasons · .526 win rate
HOME
361-211-25
AWAY
300-333-24
NEUTRAL
23-21-1
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program résumé
1CFP apps
The program, in full — read the essay
TCU was left out when the SWC died in 1996 — no Big 12 seat, no invitation, just the WAC. Twenty-six years later the Horned Frogs played for the national championship. Sonny Dykes just got extended through 2028. Back-to-back 9-4 seasons are the new question.
The 2022 run is the franchise moment, but it lives on a foundation built from grievance. When the Southwest Conference collapsed, Texas and Texas A&M took the Big 12 seats and TCU was left to wander — the WAC, then Conference USA, then the Mountain West — a decade and a half of conference exile that the fanbase in Fort Worth never quite forgot. The 2012 Big 12 invite was vindication of sorts; the 2022 national title-game appearance, in Sonny Dykes's very first season, was a verdict. The sport owed Fort Worth, and Fort Worth collected.
The two seasons after have been 9-4, 9-4 — Alamo Bowl wins, a No. 25 finish, a contract extension for Dykes in April 2026, and now a quarterback question. Josh Hoover transferred to Indiana; Dykes replaced him with Harvard's Jaden Craig, who threw for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns in the Ivy League in 2025. The Big 12 and the Ivy League are different sports, and Craig will be the most-scrutinized transfer-portal experiment in Fort Worth in some time.
The 2026 season answers the question the title-game run left open: is TCU a 13-2 program that had two quiet years, or a 9-4 program that had one transcendent one? The Davey O'Brien Award goes to a quarterback every year, named for the Heisman winner who played in Fort Worth in 1938. The Horned Frogs produce history; what Craig produces is what 2026 is about.
How they play
Fort Worth pragmatic — opportunistic, defense-rooted, and allergic to being underestimated. Dykes's system is spread-RPO with enough tempo to stress zone coverages, and the defensive identity under his staff has been bend-without-breaking rather than pure aggression. Amon G. Carter Stadium is intimate and loud, and the fanbase carries the chip of a program that survived four conference moves and reached a title game. The identity is earned stubbornness.
Steady
TCU 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.06 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 4.
CFP Era · TCU
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · AP #24
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4 · AP #24Ranked (25-16)
TCU: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big 12 Standing · 2025
9th in the Big 12
TCU is 9th of 16 in the Big 12 at 5-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · TCU
Coaching Era · TCUSonny Dykes
Sonny Dykes has held the program for 5 seasons — the era is established.
Era Sonny Dykes · 2022–presentPrev: Gary Patterson (2014–2021)OC: co-A. J. Ricker / Gordon SammisPrev OC: co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles (2023–2025)DC: Andy AvalosPrev DC: Joe Gillespie (2022–2023)
5
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Riff Ram Bah Zoo
since 1939
The fight chant: 'Riff Ram Bah Zoo, Lickety Lickety Zoo Zoo!' Nonsense syllables that became iconic, sung in unison by 50,000 purple-shirted fans. The most-cited 'how do you cheer for a horned frog' answer.
Horned Frog Mascot
since 1897
The Texas horned lizard (a real animal that 'cries blood' as defense) is one of the most-mocked mascots in CFB — and TCU fans embrace that. The 2010s 'Hypnotoad' meme became unironically the fan-voice; SuperFrog the actual mascot is gold.
Helmet Logo Vegetation
since 2010s
TCU has worn helmet decals featuring real Texas vegetation — bluebonnets, prickly pear, Texas Sage. The state-flora-in-helmet tradition expanded the program's regional identity beyond the horned frog.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1938
Dutch Meyer's title
An 11-0 season under Dutch Meyer brought TCU the 1938 national title
1996
The SWC collapse
The conference dissolves and TCU is left out of the Big 12, beginning the exile years
Wound
The 2011 Rose Bowl
TCU caps a perfect season with a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin
The 2022 title-game run
Sonny Dykes's first team reaches the national championship game
Moment of the Year · TCU · 2025
Moment of the Year · TCU · 2025Postseason · Won 30-27 vs USC
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 7-2
Most recent: 2025 — win 30-27 (home). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
20252024202220222018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2023–2026
NFL Draft PipelineStrong
16 picks last 5 cycles. 1 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
16
picks · 1 R1
#21
Quentin Johnston
Wide Receiver · 2023 · Los Angeles · #34/488 final season
#36
Steve Avila
Offensive Guard · 2023 · Los Angeles
#58
Jack Bech
Wide Receiver · 2025 · Las Vegas · #26/466 final season
#42 all-time · 17 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
TCU’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2016 · co-Doug Meacham / co-Sonny Cumbie2017–2019 · co-Curtis Luper / co-Sonny Cumbie2020 · Sonny Cumbie2021 · Doug Meacham2022 · co-A. J. Ricker / Garrett Riley2023–2025 · co-A. J. Ricker / Kendal Briles
Hired for 2026: co-A. J. Ricker / Gordon Sammis — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · Dick Bumpas2015 · co-Chad Glasgow / co-DeMontie Cross2016–2021 · Chad Glasgow2022–2023 · Joe Gillespie2024–2025 (ongoing) · Andy Avalos
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 61% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the IOL room but opened a hole at TE.
3 players drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
TCU sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
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[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats USC 30-27 (OT)
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