CFB Zeitgeist Score
69
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 79th percentile.
Jeremy Payne
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Jeremy Payne is a cornerstone for TCU — measured against the line he joined.
623RUSH YDS5RUSH TD110CARRIES
RUSHING VALUE · WEPA
+0.18
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 103 plays
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to TCU for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · TCU
Returning around him
- 61% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 3 TCU players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -2 net (12 in / 14 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
TCU · Last season: 9-4 (AP #24) · Talent rank #32 · 2026 recruiting class #24
RB · TCU · BIG 12
Jeremy Payne
- 2
- #26
- 5-10 | 180 lb
- Missouri City, TX
Heisman Heat
#357
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+161%
Up 161% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
TCU
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.8957 | No. 404 recruit | HighSchool | TCU |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (623).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to TCU
Composite
0.8957
#404 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jeremy Payne
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=4
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jeremy Payne
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.180
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #23 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 66th
Why it matters
#23 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.180 EPA/carry on 103 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.180 (66th)
MODERATE · n=103 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#14 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#37 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 11g
623Rush yards
110Carries
5Rush TDs
Per game
56.6Rush yards
10Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
736.3Rush yards
130Carries
6Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 623): needs 63.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 623): needs 188.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 623): needs 438.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 5): needs 7.5/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jeremy Payne's story is about how role and output meet each other. For TCU, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
110 81st
YDS
623 85th
YPC
5.7 79th
TD
5 85th
Receiving
REC
22 89th
YDS
207 91st
YPR
9.4 73rd
TD
2 97th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 48-14@ North Carolina | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 3 | W 42-21vs Abilene Christian | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 4 | W 35-24vs SMU | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 5 | L 24-27@ Arizona State | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 1 | 11 | |
| Wk 7 | L 28-41@ Kansas State | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wk 8 | W 42-36vs Baylor | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 11 | L 17-20vs Iowa State | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 12 | L 13-44@ BYU | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 13 | W 17-14@ Houston | 18 | 103 | 5.7 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 14 | W 45-23vs Cincinnati | 26 | 174 | 6.7 | 2 | 51 | Season-high 174 yds |
| Bowl | W 30-27vs USC | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 | 22 | |
| Total | 110 | 623 | 5.1 | 5 | 51 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024TCU9-4HC: Sonny Dykes · Pass-leaning
2025TCU9-4HC: Sonny Dykes · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 623 | #110/735 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 5 | #115/739 | 85th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.7 | #152/735 | 79th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 22 | #63/552 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 207 | #52/548 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.18 | #84/362 | 77th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 103 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 17.2% | #126/738 | 83rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 110 | #138/739 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 51 | #155/733 | 79th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 44 | #57/540 | 90th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.4 | #150/548 | 73rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #20/552 | 97th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 29.8% | #123/738 | 83rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 19.4% | #154/738 | 79th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 19.4% | #103/738 | 86th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 18.9% | #150/738 | 80th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 13.4% | #101/738 | 86th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 10.3% | #190/738 | 74th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.8% | #88/738 | 88th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 69.2 | 6.0 | 0.5 |
| Road5g | 41.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 67.9 | 5.2 | 0.4 |
| Losses4g | 37.0 | 4.8 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 34.2 | 4.3 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 83.6 | 6.1 | 0.4 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
69Solid starter
Elite: rec yards (85th). Strength: receptions (80th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.18Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jeremy PayneTCUDaylan SmothersNC State· 85% simBo JacksonOhio State· 85% simJevon JacksonUAB· 84% sim
Rec yards
Receptions
Yards / carry
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Carries
Long run
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to J'Koby Williams’s 2025 season.
J'Koby Williams
85%match
#2
Dominic Knicely
76%
#3
Raheem Blackshear
74%
#4
Ja'Quez Cross
74%
#5
Devon Achane
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 21
74%
Matches J'Koby on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Receiving share
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Calvin Turner’s path through Hawai'i.
Calvin Turner
98%match
All-Mountain West
#2
Asim Rose
95%
#3
Damon Bankston
All-Mountain West
89%
#4
Chad Alexander
87%
#5
Rhamondre Stevenson
NFL Rd 4
85%
Matches Calvin on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to J'Koby Williams's sophomore season at Texas Tech (2025).
J'Koby Williams
86%match
#2
Will Henderson III
74%
#3
Keaton Mitchell
All-AAC
69%
#4
Henry Parrish Jr.
All-ACC
67%
#5
Calvin Camp
65%
Matches J'Koby on
Yards / carry
Rush TD rate
Receiving share
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sonny Dykes
Pass share
51.9%
460 pass / 426 run
Plays / game
68.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.6%
340 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Sonny Dykes
TCU
2025
Sonny Dykes
TCU
Played his entire career under Sonny Dykes.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMissouri City, TX
Height5'10"
Weight180 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey26
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTCU
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | TCU | RB2 | #357 | #452 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.