6′3″ · 225 lb · Montclair, NJ · Seton Hall Prep
He had 391 passing yards in the 63-7 win over Grambling, 2nd in FBS that week.
TCU is 3-3 in his six games. A balanced passer.
Weakest: sacked on 9% of dropbacks, 19th worst of 145 starters.
Plays most like Layne ’25, New Mexico 2025.
Passing yards
1,694
129 of 193, 67%
TD–INT
10–5
8.8 per throw
NCAA rating
152.5
36th of 103
ZPR
55
41st of 103
Solid or better in 4 of 6.
Best by our grade: Arkansas State. Worst: North Carolina, sacked 3 times.
Tap a game for its plays
North Carolina
L 10–15·Unranked
Shaky
175 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 1 for -1 · Sacked 3
Biggest swing: his Q2 incompletion cost his team 18 points of win chance. It flipped the game against his team: 66% to 48%.
Grambling
W 63–7·FCS
Great
391 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT · Rush 5 for 25 · Sacked 1
Biggest swing: his Q1 completion added 10 points of win chance. Win chance: 69% to 79%.
Arkansas State
W 31–7·Unranked
Great
337 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT · Rush 6 for 23 · Sacked 1
Biggest swing: his Q1 completion added 19 points of win chance. It flipped the game for his team: 49% to 68%.
at UCF
L 13–21·Unranked
Shaky
310 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT · Rush 2 for 7 · Sacked 4
Biggest swing: his Q4 interception cost his team 13 points of win chance. Win chance: 15% to 2%.
BYU
L 10–17·Ranked #10
Solid
Steady all game · 187 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · Rush 3 for 3 · Sacked 4
Biggest swing: his Q2 interception cost his team 18 points of win chance. It flipped the game against his team: 61% to 43%.
at Baylor
W 17–6·Unranked
Solid
294 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · Rush 4 for 19 · Sacked 4
Biggest swing: his Q3 completion added 27 points of win chance. Win chance: 53% to 80%.
Season
Gets better after halftime
Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for him, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming him. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of his plays, up helped his team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.
The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as his season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense he faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.
Balanced
The dot is where he sits among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.
Throws at a middling depth and runs some. 3.3 carries a game. Closest matches: Layne ’25, Nelson, Shapen ’25, Owens.
Where his throws go
Runs 3.3 times a game; 60% of starters run more.
Who he is like
Nearer to him means more alike.
Compared with the 145 FBS starters this season for his throws and running, and with 207 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.
“I never ever ever want to hear about how Jaden Craig is smart because he's from Harvard ever again”
6 stories this week, from 4 outlets.
Jaden Craig’s Revivalry Breakthrough and TCU’s Offensive Game Plan in Waco
Sports Illustrated Oct 21
Jaden Craig
Jaden Craig steps into Josh Hoover's shoes — the gap is the story.
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-25
perception vs production percentile · 2026
Fans see a 66th-percentile name; the tape grades at the 41st — is the buzz ahead of the production?
AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-10-23
Play style
Pushes it downfield on every look.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
71.4% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 32.4% conversion-per-dropback — 45.0% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Season | Team | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TCU | 129 | 193 | 66.8% | 1,694 | 8.8 | 10 | 5 | 152.5 | 55 |
| Career | 129 | 193 | 66.8% | 1,694 | 8.8 | 10 | 5 | 152.5 | 55 |
| Season | Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TCU | 40 | −4 | −0.1 | 0 |
| Career | 40 | −4 | −0.1 | 0 |
Last game (Wk 7): 294 passing yards, 2 passing TD, 1 interception.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 6 games
Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 10-15vs North Carolina | 20/32 | 175 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 46.0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 63-7vs Grambling | 24/31 | 391 | 4 | 0 | 12.6 | 70.9 | Season-high 391 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 31-7vs Arkansas State | 21/29 | 337 | 3 | 1 | 11.6 | 67.6 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | L 13-21@ UCF | 25/40 | 310 | 0 | 2 | 7.8 | 73.8 | |
| Wk 5 | L 10-17vs No. 10 BYU | 18/25 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 7.5 | 35.0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 17-6@ Baylor | 21/36 | 294 | 2 | 1 | 8.2 | 71.7 | |
| Total | 129/193 | 1694 | 10 | 5 | 8.8 | — |
Oct. 17 · W 17-6 at Baylor
21 of 36 for 294 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception.
18 of 25 for 187 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He was 4 of 12 on third and fourth down.
10-yard completion to Jacobe Hayes on 3rd and 5. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
Sacked for a 8-yard loss on 3rd and 15. First quarter, tied 0-0.
Intercepted on 4th and 4. Second quarter, tied 0-0. Picked off by BYU’s Faletau Satuala.
30-yard completion to Kari Ashley on 3rd and 5. Second quarter, down 7-0. Converted.
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
25 of 40 for 310 yards and 2 interceptions. He was 6 of 13 on third and fourth down.
14-yard completion to Ed Small on 3rd and 8. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
43-yard completion to Jordan Dwyer. First quarter, down 7-0.
Intercepted. Second quarter, down 14-10. Picked off by UCF’s Jayden Bellamy.
Intercepted on 3rd and 17. Fourth quarter, down 21-13. Picked off by UCF’s Antoine Jackson.
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
21 of 29 for 337 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. He ran 6 times for 23 yards, after 15 runs in his other five games combined.
4-yard completion to Jeremy Scott on 3rd and 2. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
52-yard completion to Ed Small on 4th and 13. First quarter, tied 0-0. Converted.
Intercepted. First quarter, up 7-0. Picked off by Arkansas State’s Kyle Williams.
No gain on 4th and 3. Second quarter, up 7-0. Turnover on downs.
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
24 of 31 for 391 yards and 4 touchdowns; 12.6 yards an attempt, 10th-best in FBS that week.
Not drawn: the play-by-play doesn’t add up to the box score.
20 of 32 for 175 yards. Two drives ended on his fourth-down plays: an incompletion and an incompletion.
40-yard completion to Ka'Morreun Pimpton. First quarter, tied 10-10.
Incomplete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton on 4th and 10. Second quarter, tied 10-10. Turnover on downs. Broken up by North Carolina’s G. Smith III.
Incomplete to Jeremy Scott on 3rd and 4. Second quarter, down 12-10. Fans named him again and again right after.
“Craig is legit ASS”North Carolina fan, r/CFB game thread
Incomplete to Jeremy Scott on 4th and 2. Fourth quarter, down 15-10. Turnover on downs. Fans named him again and again right after: the most-talked-about moment of his game.
“Craig 100% would have gotten that if he kept going”Arizona State fan, r/CFB game thread
Each pass sits where it was caught or thrown to, in yards past the line. The play text only says left, middle or right, so inside a lane marks are sorted, not placed.
Week 3 · 2026
W 31-7
337 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT · QBR 67.6 · 20 rush yds (7 car)
Dominant 24-point win at home against Arkansas State.
With J. Hoyet Chance — 52.7 yards per punt · 3 punts · 2 inside the 20 · E. Small — 7 rec · 164 yds · 1 TD
The plays that mattered most
22nd in passing yards, among all 431 FBS players with a passing row this season, any position
Conference ranks count every player in the conference with a row in that stat, any position. Career ranks count current FBS players, from the games in our log.
Ratings of the games shown run from -7 to +21 points against an average team (SP+ rating of each opponent).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.4063 of 170 QBsSack rate
8.1%141 of 170 QBsSacked on 8.1% of dropbacks (141 of 170) — and still 63 of 170 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 66.8% completion on 193 attempts · 50% completion on 28 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2026 baseline
No situation moves him more than 31 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 6 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 305 | 2.7 | 10.6 | 0.7 |
| Road2g | 302 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 1.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 282 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 0.8 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sonny Dykes
Pass share
49.5%
194 pass / 198 run
Plays / game
65.3
6 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2026
193 pass attempts and 41 carries in 6 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.
Recognition
Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score
Unranked recruit. Now #68 at the position.
from 4 outlets
Jaden Craig’s Revivalry Breakthrough and TCU’s Offensive Game Plan in Waco
Sports Illustrated Oct 21 · 2 outlets
Talk is up: 6 stories this week, from 1 the week before.
from 23 outlets
Jaden Craig's 3-TD night boosts TCU over Arkansas State
Charlotte Observer +2 Sep 19 · 3 outlets
Yahoo SportsTCU Football Mailbag: Can Jaden Craig and the Horned Frogs Bounce Back?Sep 8
RoundtableJaden Craig Surging, Emerging As Serious Threat For TCUSep 24
Locked OnHow Jaden Craig Can Make TCU One of the Big 12’s Best OffensesAug 25
CBS Sports +1Jaden Craig throws 4 TDs as TCU crushes Grambling State 63-7Sep 13CBS SportsJaden Craig throws 3 TDs to lead TCU past Arkansas StateSep 20Locked OnWould You Rather Jaden Craig Throw Under 7 Interceptions or TCU Has a 7+ Sack Player?Aug 11
RotoBallerTCU Quarterback Jaden Craig Has Exceeded Expectations - College Football News | Fantasy CFBAug 16Yahoo SportsTCU's Next Two Games Are About More Than Wins for Jaden CraigSep 12
CT InsiderJaden Craig leads TCU to bounceback win over Grambling State 63-7Sep 13
The Dallas Morning News4 takeaways from TCU's win over Grambling State: Jaden Craig sharp in second startSep 13Yahoo SportsTCU's Jaden Craig Racking Up Yards, But Not Wins For Horned FrogsOct 2
National Football PostJaden Craig, TCU bounce back with throttling of GramblingSep 13
The Fayetteville Observer +1Bill Belichick reveals what makes TCU QB Jaden Craig a 'problem' for UNC footballAug 24Yahoo SportsTCU Horned Frogs discuss quarterback Jaden Craig's progressAug 17
Orlando SentinelHow can the Knights contain tcu’s Jaden Craig?Sep 22Yahoo SportsTCU head coach Sonny Dykes on Jaden Craig, biggest surprises at fall campAug 16Sports IllustratedYahoo SportsCBS Sports +1Yahoo SportsCBS SportsYahoo SportsEach week: his team’s game, the stories about him that week, and the week’s biggest news headline.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
Fans first named him vs North Carolina.
Aura™ · Him Watch
Aura compares how much fans talk about him with how well he plays, each ranked among QBs.
+25aura tax
41st percentile our passing-value metric (weighted expected points added) ranked among 358 QBs
— more hype than the tape.His career
