West Virginia at TCU
TCU (3‑3) hosts West Virginia (4‑3). The market has TCU favored by 10.5. The model gives TCU a 72% shot. TCU’s passing offense is at the 55th percentile; West Virginia’s pass defense is at the 0th.
How they got here
Last three games
West Virginia · 4-3
Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 147th now, up 35 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
TCU · 3-3
Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 35th now, up 14 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over Baylor as a 3.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: TCU’s passing EPA against West Virginia, 55 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
TCU’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 55th percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th
TCU’s explosive plays against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 66th percentile · West Virginia defense, 18th
TCU’s success rate against West Virginia’s defense
TCU offense, 47th percentile · West Virginia defense, 6th
What’s at stake
West Virginia
- West Virginia needs 2 more wins in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 76% to get there with a win here, 33% with a loss.
- Rich Rodriguez is 2-1 all-time against Sonny Dykes.
TCU
- TCU needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 77% to get there with a win here, 44% with a loss.
- Sonny Dykes is 1-2 all-time against Rich Rodriguez.
The series
West Virginia leads the series 8-6
14 meetings since 1984 · TCU won the last meeting
- 2025TCU 23-17
- 2023West Virginia 24-21
- 2022TCU 41-31
- 2021West Virginia 29-17
- 2020West Virginia 24-6
Each line is TCU’s chance to win through that meeting. TCU is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
West Virginia
The chip · vs the national mediaMountaineer fans are tired of their state's only major team being treated as an afterthought, a hard place to recruit, a name from the past. They say Morgantown is the loudest Saturday nobody outside the state bothers to watch — and they wear the slight like armor.
What this game touches
The 2007 Backyard Brawl. Ranked No. 2 and a home win over 4-7 Pitt from the BCS title game, West Virginia lost 13-9 in the season's biggest stunner — and two weeks later Rich Rodriguez left for Michigan. The closest the program ever came to the summit became its deepest scar, and the man at the center of it is now the head coach again.
TCU
The chip · vs the blue bloodsThe chip is the SWC breakup itself: the in-state powers grabbed the conference seats and left Fort Worth out in the cold, and fans believe TCU has spent thirty years proving the schools that abandoned it picked wrong. The 2022 run wasn't a fluke to them — it was a verdict.
What this game touches
Left behind when the SWC collapsed. When the Southwest Conference dissolved in 1996, Texas and Texas A&M went to the Big 12 and TCU was cast into the WAC, then Conference USA, then the Mountain West — a wandering exile the fanbase never forgot, even after the 2012 Big 12 invite and the 2022 title-game run.
Best players
West Virginia
- Cam Cook (RB) · 833 rushing yards
- DJ Epps (WR) · 556 receiving yards
- Isaiah Patterson (LB) · 44 tackles
TCU
- Jaden Craig (QB) · 1,694 passing yards — Heisman odds: 90th (+35000)
- Ed Small (WR) · 494 receiving yards
- Kari Ashley (TE) · 392 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Jaden Craig (QB) — TCU’s leading passer (1,694 passing yards) takes on West Virginia’s pass defense (0th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 3.5 points toward TCU since opening (−7 → −10.5).
The betting line, and the fans
West Virginia fans are in a better mood than TCU fans (99th vs 16th among FBS fanbases), even with TCU favored.
- Model · 72%
- Line · 80%
- TCU fans · 16th
- West Virginia fans · 99th
TCU favored by 10.5 · Total 57.5
TCU by 10.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
TCU’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
West Virginia at TCU · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · ESPN2 · Amon G. Carter Stadium.
- 77°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 17 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Amon G. Carter Stadium: noon Saturdays score 81, 3:30 pm 79, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 81, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 79, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
TCU is worth +4.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 61st percentile.
60% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (27-18 home, 22-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,081 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
TCU
- Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7
- Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7
- Wk 4Lat UCF13-21
- Wk 5Lvs BYU10-17
- Wk 7Wat Baylor17-6
West Virginia
- Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27
- Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41
- Wk 5Lat Iowa State42-45
- Wk 6Lvs Arizona31-52
- Wk 7Wvs Cincinnati45-42
Power rating by week
TCU is rated 11.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3.5 points toward TCU.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −7 → −10.5 · Total: 58.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- TCU9th1-2
- West Virginia14th1-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- West Virginia 24, TCU 21Sep 30, 2023