Grambling at TCU
Fan take
Grambling fans
TCU fans
How they got here
Last two games
Grambling · 2-0
Picked #171 in the preseason · now #246.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 48–26 vs Central State #370 of 669
W 49–7 vs Clark Atlanta #358 of 669
Last three games · 2025 season
TCU · 9-4
Picked #50 in the preseason · now #62 — worse than expected.
Three straight wins, capped by a 3-point win over USC as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 30–27 vs USCTop 25 #22 of 668
won by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 45–23 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #57 of 668
won by 22 as a 3-point favorite
W 17–14 @ HoustonTop 25 #62 of 668
won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 13–44 @ BYUTop 25 #17 of 668
lost by 31 as a 3-point underdog
L 17–20 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #42 of 668
lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 23–17 @ West Virginia #118 of 668
won by 6 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 42–36 vs Baylor #31 of 668
won by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 28–41 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #39 of 668
lost by 13 as a 2.5-point favorite
W 35–21 vs Colorado #81 of 668
won by 14 as a 14.5-point favorite
L 24–27 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #25 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3-point underdog
W 35–24 vs SMUTop 25 #20 of 668
won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 42–21 vs Abilene Christian #123 of 668
won by 21 as a 42-point favorite
W 48–14 @ North Carolina #108 of 668
won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Grambling
- Grambling needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility — 32% to get there with a win here, 8% with a loss.
- Grambling is still shaking off a 56-point loss.
TCU
- TCU sits at 2% to make the CFP field — 2% with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- TCU is coming off a 56-point win.
The series
TCU leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2012 · TCU has won the last 2
- 2026TCU 63–7
- 2012TCU 56–0
Best players
TCU
- Jeremy Payne (RB) · 221 rushing yards
- Jaden Craig (QB) · 566 passing yards — Heisman odds: 105th (+25000)
- Ed Small (WR) · 166 receiving yards
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on TCU’s chances here.
Home −44.5 · O/U 56.5
Conditions
97°F · 10 mph wind · Fair
TCU is worth +4.8 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
60% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (26–17 home, 21–21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.0 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 271 miles to get here.
Grambling 7 – TCU 63
Called it — picked TCU to win.
Recent games
TCU
- Wk 1Lvs North Carolina10-15
Grambling
- Wk 1Wvs Clark Atlanta49-7
- Wk 1Wvs Central State48-26
Trajectory
TCU beat Grambling 63-7 — exactly what the pregame pick had.