BYU12-2CFP #12

Cautious optimism is building around BYU.

belief cooled ↓ 7.4vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
55/100 · 264 mentions
~ our read
Grounding
about average
8% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 30 pts
~ our read
The model
#21
CFB Zeitgeist · +8.1
✓ measured
Explore all 12 corners of the fanbase ↓
3
dynasty move

BYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 17% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 34% a year ago.

Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season.

Hope-Doping·Offseason

BYU is the program that won a national title in 1984, spent four decades in the wilderness waiting for a seat at the table, and in 2025 came within a Big 12 title game of cashing in the patience.

AP Poll#12 AP

Cougar fans have heard for years that the schedule was soft, that the faith makes the program a curiosity, that the wins came against nobody — and they say the 2025 Big 12 run answered all of it at on…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - BYU

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production87%High continuity
Talent Composite#70 nationally247 composite 649.4
Portal Additions9Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses13Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#21Top-25 recruiting class
OTin 1 - Jr Sia3.50out 3 - Jake Griffin3.50Starter Risk
TEin 2 - Roger Saleapaga II4.12out 1 - Tucker Kelleher3.50Upgrade
current room: 249 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Cade Uluave4.50out 1 - Max Alford3.60Upgrade
current room: 233 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 1 - Jayven Williams3.50out 2 - Tayvion Beasley3.49Downgrade
current room: 181 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Kyler Kasper3.60out 2 - Dominique McKenzie3.49Downgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 2 - Paki Finau3.70out 0Need Filled
current room: 309 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
TE · departedCarsen Ryan4★ · Rd 7, Pk 32
nowRyner Swanson4★ · FR
Next man up
Belief EKG
2023 season2022 season2021 seasonW 41-13 vs Southern Illinois (Wk 1)W 38-9 vs Kansas State (Wk 4)W 34-28 vs Baylor (Wk 5)W 41-19 vs Arizona (Wk 7)W 38-35 vs Oklahoma State (Wk 8)W 37-24 vs UCF (Wk 9)W 22-21 vs Utah (Wk 11)L 13-17 vs Kansas (Wk 12)L 23-28 vs Arizona State (Wk 13)W 30-18 vs Houston (Wk 14)W 36-14 vs Colorado (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2024 season2022 season2021 seasonW 14-0 vs Sam Houston (Wk 1)W 41-16 vs Southern Utah (Wk 2)W 38-31 vs Arkansas (Wk 3)L 27-38 vs Kansas (Wk 4)W 35-27 vs Cincinnati (Wk 5)L 11-44 vs TCU (Wk 7)W 27-14 vs Texas Tech (Wk 8)L 6-35 vs Texas (Wk 9)L 7-37 vs West Virginia (Wk 10)L 13-45 vs Iowa State (Wk 11)L 24-31 vs Oklahoma (Wk 12)L 34-40 vs Oklahoma State (Wk 13)HIGHLOW
2024 season2023 season2021 seasonW 50-21 vs South Florida (Wk 1)W 26-20 vs Baylor (Wk 2)L 20-41 vs Oregon (Wk 3)W 38-24 vs Wyoming (Wk 4)W 38-26 vs Utah State (Wk 5)L 20-28 vs Notre Dame (Wk 6)L 35-52 vs Arkansas (Wk 7)L 14-41 vs Liberty (Wk 8)L 24-27 vs East Carolina (Wk 9)W 31-28 vs Boise State (Wk 10)W 35-26 vs Stanford (Wk 13)W 24-23 vs SMU (Wk 16)HIGHLOW
2024 season2023 season2022 seasonW 24-16 vs Arizona (Wk 1)W 26-17 vs Utah (Wk 2)W 27-17 vs Arizona State (Wk 3)W 35-27 vs South Florida (Wk 4)W 34-20 vs Utah State (Wk 5)L 17-26 vs Boise State (Wk 6)L 24-38 vs Baylor (Wk 7)W 21-19 vs Washington State (Wk 8)W 66-49 vs Virginia (Wk 9)W 59-14 vs Idaho State (Wk 10)W 34-17 vs Georgia Southern (Wk 12)W 35-31 vs USC (Wk 13)L 28-31 vs UAB (Wk 16)HIGHLOW
2020 offseason2019 offseasonWire: Two OTs gone to the draft and class sitting at #55 — Sitake needs bodies who can develop into…Wire: SP+ jumped 15 spots and the WR pipeline keeps feeding it — a 4-star add to a receiver room that's…Story arc: NFL denies supplemental draft for Texas Tech quarterback Brendan SorsbyStory arc: BYU wins battle for 4-star Uhila Wolfgramm over new in-state recruiting…Story arc: Parker Kingston's rape case dismissed, but charges may be refiledWk 37Wk 4465th3th
2024 season · 11W-2L2023 season · 5W-7L2022 season · 8W-5L2021 season · 10W-3L2025 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc

Approaching

31 days

until kickoff · vs Utah Tech · Sun Sep 6 · 00:00 UTC

The experience

BYU is the program with a national title, a religious identity, and the longest patience in college football.

Offense: StrongTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Elite
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

BYU's 2026 College Football Team Preview: High Continuity and #25 Recruiting Class

BYU enters the 2026 season with a high continuity roster, returning 87% of its players, and a #25 recruiting class ranked #21. The team's balanced portal churn and strong transfer additions position it for a competitive campaign.

  • Roster reloadBYU has a high continuity roster with 87% of its players returning, as indicated by the returning_total_pct value of 87.
  • RecruitingBYU's recruiting class is ranked #21, with a recruiting_score of 237.33, reflecting its strong performance in attracting talent.
  • Transfer portalBYU has a balanced portal churn with 9 transfers coming in and 13 leaving, as reflected by the transfer_in_total of 9 and transfer_out_total of 13.
Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

Cosmo is studying scripture.

BYU · the story right now 7 storylines developing

What BYU's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

BYU enters 2025 at No. 18 in SP+ — the 12-2 record under Kalani Sitake raises the question of whether top-quintile returning production can sustain this ceiling.

what happenedBYU enters 2025 rated No. 18 in SP+ (+15.9). ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
dynastythis cycle~readnew

Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season.

what happenedBYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 17% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 34% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Kalani Sitake enters his 8th season with a 12-2 record and a national title legacy, balancing BYU's religious identity and Big 12 ambitions as coordinator changes reshape key units.

what happenedBYU: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew

LJ Martin does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Carsen Ryan is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Jojo Phillips is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read
recruitingthis cycle~readnew

Ryder Lyons (#38 QB) joins a program with 93% QB production returning and a 12-2 record — Kalani Sitake’s class is an addition, not a rescue, to a core already built for sustained success.

what happenedBYU signed a top-21 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 recruiting class in the Big 12
narrative tension · our read

The Offseason Ledger · BYU

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. Recruiting

    Jag Ioane commits to BYU

    Two OTs drafted out and the room was thin — Ioane lands at a program sitting No. 18 in SP+ and needing bodies who can start, not projects who need two years to find the speed.

    Jul 20Reported
  2. Recruiting

    Lakepa Satuala commits to BYU

    Two OTs drafted out and class sitting at #55 nationally — Satuala's commit starts filling the trench gap before fall camp pressure makes it a crisis.

  3. Recruiting

    Peyton Higginson commits to BYU

    Class sits at #55 nationally but the OT room was the real concern — Higginson addresses a pressure point Sitake couldn't afford to leave thin heading into a Big 12 gauntlet that'll decide CFP bubble arguments in October.

  4. Recruiting

    3-star OL commits to BYU

    Two OTs gone to the draft and class sitting at #55 — Sitake needs bodies who can develop into starters before the Big 12 schedule exposes the depth gap.

  5. Recruiting

    Uhila Wolfgramm commits to BYU

    Two OT departures to the draft and a class sitting 55th nationally — Wolfgramm's commitment is Sitake plugging a pressure point at tackle before fall camp exposes it.

  6. Recruiting

    4-star WR commits to BYU

    SP+ jumped 15 spots and the WR pipeline keeps feeding it — a 4-star add to a receiver room that's already turning heads inside the Big 12.

    Jun 28Reported

Transfer portal snapshot

-11.8 net portal points
(raw ledger: -11.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
IOL
+7.3
need not filled
OT
-7.0
starter risk
TE
+4.6
LB
+4.4
DL
-3.5
low confidence
EDGE
-3.5
low confidence
QB
-3.5
low confidence
RB
-3.5
low confidence
CB
-3.5
WR
-3.4

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Ryder Lyons
QB · Folsom, CA
#47 national
★★★★☆
Brock Harris
TE · St. George, UT
#124 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical tight end — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Complete TE archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Bott Mulitalo
IOL · American Fork, UT
#132 national

Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now

58th percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
58th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(82nd among FBS)
Market 24pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 8.5
CFP championship#21 in field+8000
Big 12 title#2 in market+550

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

BYU · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor7-6Bowl game.
base10-3Bowl game.
ceiling12-2Conference title + cFP first round.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · BYU · Season outlook Confidence

BYU is a ranked program entering 2025. The tape backs it.

BYU enters 2025 rated No. 18 in SP+ (+15.9). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers6 bull takes
💬 fans: 15% volume · mostly neutral
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
BYU enters 2025 at No. 18 in SP+ — the 12-2 record under Kalani Sitake raises the question of whether top-quintile returning production can sustain this ceiling.
Source of record: BYU enters 2025 rated No. 18 in SP+ (+15.9) — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards loud
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.

“Several BYU Players Getting All-Big 12 Buzz As Fall Camp Begins”
Vanquish The Foe · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“BYU's class of 2020 hit rock bottom as the Cougars lost the war for talent as a football independent”
Lawless Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“A Pair of Surprise Additions Headline the Newcomers on BYU's Fall Camp Roster”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“GO-TIME: BYU Cougars HUNTED, Not Hunters—Will Pressure DESTROY T” — the real counter.

The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.

“GO-TIME: BYU Cougars HUNTED, Not Hunters—Will Pressure DESTROY Their College Football Playoff Hopes?”
WFAA · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards15% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (47%).

This event was in 199 of 1341 board posts (15%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"2023: 31 (5-7) 2024: 7 (11-2) 2025: 4 (12-2) NCAA College Football Luck Rankings & Ratings NCAA College Football Luck Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAA"
CougarBoard ~ fan take
"Jimmy Eat World 🤝 BYU Football pic.twitter.com/h8YEBr9TDD — Jarom Jordan () August 6, 2026"
CougarBoard ~ fan take

Board health this week (264 posts): 18% positive · 55% neutral · 27% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Following now · BYU · Program power Confidence

The model has BYU trending up — this isn't a vibe, it's a measurement.

BYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 17% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 34% a year ago. It is a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons. Three-year power ratings tell a structural story — the room is split on whether the schedule will confirm it.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers6 bull takes
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season.
Source of record: BYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 17% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 34% a year ago — a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissent
📣Believers6 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“Several BYU Players Getting All-Big 12 Buzz As Fall Camp Begins”
Vanquish The Foe · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“BYU's class of 2020 hit rock bottom as the Cougars lost the war for talent as a football independent”
Lawless Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“A Pair of Surprise Additions Headline the Newcomers on BYU's Fall Camp Roster”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“GO-TIME: BYU Cougars HUNTED, Not Hunters—Will Pressure DESTROY T” — the real counter.

The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

“GO-TIME: BYU Cougars HUNTED, Not Hunters—Will Pressure DESTROY Their College Football Playoff Hopes?”
WFAA · 2026-08-05 · read ↗

Recent Form · last 10 games

Warming

Four of five. The board favors this trend.

Streak W1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 8-2
The forecast

Opens Sep 6

vs Utah Tech · at home

Season line8.5 winsover -150
StrongMethodical, ball-controlElite

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

Utah
Mixed
-1
Holy War
Face-off →
Utah State
Bullish
+24
Old Wagon Wheel

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

22
UT · 10CA · 3TX · 2AR · 1AZ · 1CO · 1ID · 1NV · 1+2 more

UT leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

98 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. UT leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats TCU 44-13
437 upvotes · Nov 2025
Rape case dismissed against former BYU football player Parker Kingston
436 upvotes · Jun 2026
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Portland State 69-0
389 upvotes · Aug 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 81% never transferred. C
See the class →
Voter spread

66 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #8, Damien Sordelett (The Roanoke Times), to #14, Kirk Bohls (Houston Chronicle).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.

National spotlight

13 games with TV coverage: 6 national broadcast, 7 ESPN

Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 2 afternoon, 8 primetime

Fumble luck

The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 38% recovered, vs. ~51% expected.

5 of 13 own fumbles recovered themselves; 5 of 9 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

Cashing in more than most: 30% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.

16 interceptions of 54 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 16 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

Roughly even on flags: 75 penalties committed vs. 85 drawn on opponents.

635 penalty yards committed vs. 631 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

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