BYU 28-24 Notre Dame (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Notre Dame · BYU

No. 2 Notre Dame6-124

No. 8 BYU6-028Final

Sat, Oct 17 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah · Crowd 65,179

No. 8 BYU beat No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 as a 10.5-point underdog.

We had Notre Dame favored. BYU won.

Next: Notre Dame vs Navy, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET

Next: BYU at UCF, Sat Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET · BYU favored by 6.5

Top comment in the game thread

That was a BS DPI call, and ND should have been called for OPI earlier in the drive

Q2 0:33 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Carr incomplete to Greathouse (Q4, 0:04). BYU went from 50% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave BYU a 30% chance, and the closing betting line (BYU was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.

TargetingQ1 12:29

FinalBYU 28-24 Notre DameBYU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 9:31Walton 3-yd TD run, Notre Dame goes ahead 24-21BYU 55% → 29% (−26)
2Q4 1:47Bachmeier 6-yd TD pass to Lyons, BYU goes ahead 28-24BYU 35% → 74% (+39)
3Q4 0:43Carr 24-yd pass to GreathouseBYU 86% → 61% (−25)
4Q4 0:044th and 5Carr 6-yd pass to GilbertBYU 89% → 50% (−39)
5Q4 0:04Carr incomplete to GreathouseBYU 50% → 100% (+50)

The five plays that swung it

1Q4 9:31Walton 3-yd TD run, Notre Dame goes ahead 24-21Notre Dame 45% → 71% (+26)
2Q4 1:47Bachmeier 6-yd TD pass to Lyons, BYU goes ahead 28-24Notre Dame 65% → 26% (−39)
3Q4 0:43Carr 24-yd pass to GreathouseNotre Dame 14% → 39% (+25)
4Q4 0:044th and 5Carr 6-yd pass to GilbertNotre Dame 11% → 50% (+39)
5Q4 0:04Carr incomplete to GreathouseNotre Dame 50% → 0% (−50)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:44A player made a great run and avoided tackles.We. Have. A. Running back.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:33Fans call Carr pass incomplete DPI ruling bogus OPIQuoted at the top of the page.Two egregious OPIs on this drive for ND. Absolutely absurd to call DPI on the 2nd one.r/CFB game thread
Q2 0:09Fans mock BYU defenders for flopping after Carr fumbles a spikeFlopping there is insane 😂r/CFB game threadlol the floppingr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:06A player fumbled a spike.I've never seen someone botch a spike before.r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:40Fans rip Kalani Sitake for a dumb fake punt decisionThe only explanation is that Kalani is addicted to the adrenaline rush of fake puntsr/CFB game thread

BYU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Notre Dame -10.5), at 28% for BYU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a BYU or Notre Dame flair (2,141 and 2,697); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show BYU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

BYU scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Notre Dame on 5 of its 11.

BYU’s drives are teal, Notre Dame’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Notre Dame’s side

Notre Dame’s best moment: Carr 6-yd pass to Gilbert (Q4 0:04). It lifted Notre Dame’s win chance by 39 points.

How Notre Dame fans took it: “Hi everybody. I've been really active in this thread. I'm dead now. It's been fun.” r/CFB game thread

“At least I'm not Mormon anymore so I can get drunk like I am now”

A BYU fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was roaring.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

BYU fans

punt“We had to play aggressive because we were down. This is all the fake punt’s fault”

fake“Kalani always calls 1 or 2 fake punts every year that just boggle the mind”

lie“Ball don't lie. I think the two handed push earlier should have been OPI as well.”

devries“Seriously? Devries are you kidding me how TF are you worse than Tiger?????”

Notre Dame fans

carr“The amount of overthrown TDs tonight is maddening, especially from Carr. 19 points left bouncing out of the endzone.”

looks“Jesus carr looks bad. I don’t understand the fascination with the pass… o-line and run game look decent”

whistle“Bruh you’re gonna keep driving the receiver backwards after the whistle then pretend you’re the victim after you get thrown down?”

dead“Hi everybody. I've been really active in this thread. I'm dead now. It's been fun.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, now, back, don.

Too close to call on 51% of plays.

What it cost

Notre Dame’s chance to make the playoff fell from 84% to 71%.

Make the playoff

Notre Dame · lost84% → ▼71%

BYU · won22% → ▲27%

Win the conference

Notre Dame · lost0% → 0%

BYU · won18% → ▲20%

Win the title

Notre Dame · lost17% → ▼14%

BYU · won0% → ▲1%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Notre Dame plays vs Navy on Sat Oct 31 with a 71% chance to make the playoff. BYU plays at UCF on Sat Oct 24 with a 27% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24

BYU covered +10.5 by 14.5. The total, 52, went over 47.5.

Team totals	Notre Dame	BYU
Total yards	376	360
Passing	27 of 49, 261 yds	24 of 37, 239 yds
Rushing	30 for 115 yds	30 for 121 yds
First downs	22	23
Third down	8 of 19	8 of 12
Fourth down	4 of 4	0 of 1
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	4 for 40 yds	4 for 35 yds
Time of possession	30:58	29:02

Notre Dame leaders

Passing C.J. Carr 27 of 49, 261 yds
Rushing Nolan James Jr. 16 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Jonaz Walton 5 for 17 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jaden Greathouse 8 for 125 yds; Jordan Faison 6 for 64 yds

BYU leaders

Passing Bear Bachmeier 23 of 36, 224 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Preston Rex 10 for 66 yds; Bear Bachmeier 13 for 45 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Legend Glasker 5 for 66 yds; Kyler Kasper 6 for 66 yds

No rain through the game

66° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at LaVell Edwards Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:04 left9:16 p.m.

Notre Dame 24, BYU 28 · BYU 50% to win

no rain · 54°

Carr 6-yd pass to Gilbert

Measured at Provo Muni (awos) airport, 4.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Notre Dame · 6-0

Rated 1st in our preseason ratings, 3rd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 58-7 vs Stanford #140 of 668

won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite

W 37-26 @ North Carolina #88 of 668

won by 11 as a 21-point favorite

W 49-10 @ Purdue #113 of 668

won by 39 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 27-10 vs Michigan State #132 of 668

won by 17 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 52-0 vs Rice #147 of 668

won by 52 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 41-13 vs Wisconsin #77 of 668

won by 28 as a 21-point favorite

Last three games

BYU · 5-0

Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 10th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 24-10 vs Iowa State #107 of 668

won by 14 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 17-10 @ TCU #41 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 41-23 @ Colorado State #76 of 668

won by 18 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 28-17 vs ArizonaTop 25 #27 of 668

won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite

Week by week

BYU

Wk 1Wvs Utah Tech63-7
Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
Wk 3Wat Colorado State41-23
Wk 5Wat TCU17-10
Wk 6Wvs Iowa State24-10

Notre Dame

Wk 2Wvs Rice52-0
Wk 3Wvs Michigan State27-10
Wk 4Wat Purdue49-10
Wk 5Wat North Carolina37-26
Wk 6Wvs Stanford58-7

Power rating by week

Notre Dame is rated 4.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Notre Dame’s explosive plays against BYU, 37 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Notre Dame’s explosive plays against BYU’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 25th percentile · BYU defense, 62nd
Notre Dame’s EPA/play against BYU’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 96th percentile · BYU defense, 74th
Notre Dame’s rushing EPA against BYU’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 87th percentile · BYU defense, 71st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Notre DameBYU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Notre Dame leads the series 7-2

9 meetings since 1992 · Notre Dame has won the last 4

2022 · neutral siteNotre Dame 28-20
2013Notre Dame 23-13
2012Notre Dame 17-14
2005Notre Dame 49-23
2004BYU 20-17

Each line is BYU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

BYU fans are in a better mood than Notre Dame fans (82nd vs 64th among FBS fanbases), even with Notre Dame favored.

Notre Dame favored by 10.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Notre Dame by 10.5, on the usual path until 5:43 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Notre Dame.

The total fell 7 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

BYU is worth +2.9 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.

75% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (33-11 home, 29-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,633 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,325 miles to get here.

No. 8 BYU upsets No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24