Notre Dame at Navy
Notre Dame (6‑1) at Navy (2‑4) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Notre Dame (96%). Notre Dame’s offense is at the 96th percentile on efficiency; Navy’s defense is at the 35th.
How they got here
Last three games
Notre Dame · 6-1
Rated 1st in our preseason ratings, 2nd now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Navy · 2-4
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 67th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Notre Dame’s EPA/play against Navy, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Notre Dame’s EPA/play against Navy’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 96th percentile · Navy defense, 35th
Notre Dame’s passing EPA against Navy’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 91st percentile · Navy defense, 34th
Notre Dame’s explosive plays against Navy’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 25th percentile · Navy defense, 3rd
What’s at stake
Notre Dame
- A win puts Notre Dame a step closer to a 69% shot at the CFP field.
- Marcus Freeman is 3-0 all-time against Brian Newberry.
Navy
- Navy is 2 games back in American Athletic with 4 left to make it up.
- Brian Newberry is behind Ken Niumatalolo’s year-4 pace (2-4 vs. 4-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Notre Dame leads the series 84-13-1
98 meetings since 1927 · Notre Dame has won the last 8
- 2025Notre Dame 49-10
- 2024 · neutral siteNotre Dame 51-14
- 2023 · neutral siteNotre Dame 42-3
- 2022 · neutral siteNotre Dame 35-32
- 2021Notre Dame 34-6
Each line is Navy’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Notre Dame
The chip · vs the committeeThe fanbase's read is simple and bitter: ten straight wins were worth less than a Week 1 result the committee chose to weight, and a program with no conference title to wave gets judged on a standard the leagues never have to meet. They say the snub wasn't an accident — it was the price of going it alone.
What this game touches
The 2025 Playoff snub. Notre Dame opened 0-2, then won ten straight — many in routs, including a home win over a ranked USC — and finished No. 11 at 10-2. The committee gave the final at-large bid to Miami on the head-to-head from the Week 1 opener; Notre Dame declined a non-Playoff bowl rather than treat the leftover as a reward.
Navy
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the analysts to admit the constraints are the point, not the excuse.
What this game touches
The recruiting math never changes. Navy can't outbid anyone in a transfer-portal, NIL era — every recruit must qualify for the Naval Academy and owe years of active service. The Midshipmen win in spite of constraints no other FBS program faces, and a down year is always one roster crunch away.
Best players
Notre Dame
- C.J. Carr (QB) · 1,639 passing yards — Heisman odds: 3rd (+1100)
- Drayk Bowen (LB) · 38 tackles
- Jordan Faison (WR) · 451 receiving yards
Navy
- Coleman Cauley (LB) · 49 tackles
- Jackson Gutierrez (QB) · 644 rushing yards
- Giuseppe Sessi (S) · 41 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: C.J. Carr (QB) — Notre Dame’s leading passer (1,639 passing yards) takes on Navy’s pass defense (34th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Notre Dame fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (13th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Gillette Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 92
Notre Dame at Navy · Saturday, Oct. 31 · noon ET · Gillette Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Gillette Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Season profile
Week by week
Navy
- Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
- Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
- Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
- Wk 6Wvs Tulsa34-26
- Wk 7Lat UTSA34-38
Notre Dame
- Wk 3Wvs Michigan State27-10
- Wk 4Wat Purdue49-10
- Wk 5Wat North Carolina37-26
- Wk 6Wvs Stanford58-7
- Wk 7Lat BYU24-28
Power rating by week
Notre Dame is rated 14.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Notre Dame 51, Navy 14Oct 26, 2024
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.