Notre Dame 27-10 Michigan State (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Michigan State · Notre Dame

Michigan State2-110

No. 3 Notre Dame3-027Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind. · Crowd 77,622

No. 3 Notre Dame beat Michigan State 27-10.

We had Notre Dame favored. It won.

Next: Michigan State lost to Nebraska 31-13, Sat Sep 26

Next: Notre Dame beat Purdue 49-10, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

Carr with his inner J.Love moment

Q2 6:44 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Notre Dame a 99% chance, and the closing betting line (Notre Dame was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Notre Dame led by 10 after the first quarter and by 7 at the half.

Favored the whole way: Notre Dame never fell below 96%.

Michigan State never had better than a 3% chance.

FinalNotre Dame 27-10 Michigan StateNotre Dame wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:34Notre Dame fans rip Marcus Freeman's fake punt call as Moore runs into trafficPoor vision by Moore there.r/CFB game threadLove the call, but a rare WTF moment from LM.r/CFB game thread
Q2 10:14Fancher incomplete to Williams"Result of a play is a touchdown." *whispers* "HE DROPPED THAT?"r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:44Carr stays upright after contact, extending the drive as fans compare him to LoveQuoted at the top of the page.Shades of J Love last year.r/CFB game thread
Q2 3:48Officials uphold Milivojevic to Bullard catch, then Fancher scores touchdownNothing to suggest he doesn’t catch it. That was a hell of a throwr/CFB game thread

Notre Dame’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Notre Dame -28.5), at 98% for Notre Dame (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Notre Dame or Michigan State flair (1,100 and 1,124); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Notre Dame scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Michigan State on 2 of its 9.

Notre Dame’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Absolute dime of a pass”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

The biggest reaction came in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Notre Dame fans

williams“I love Williams, he was magical in the passing game during the playoff run 2 years ago. That said James is RB1”

run“Our run game was slow last year because we went up against Miami and A&M to start the year. This year it was Wisconsin and Rice..”

Michigan State fans

least“Good first half, I think we can win 4 more games on the schedule at least”

dropped“I screamed so loud and sudden on the dropped ball that my wife thought I dropped the baby”

smith“If Jonathon Smith was still coaching this team, they're down 24-0 right now”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ball, now, back, catch.

What it cost

Notre Dame’s chance to make the playoff rose from 68% to 72%.

Make the playoff

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Notre Dame · won68% → ▲72%

Win the title

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Notre Dame · won13% → ▼12%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Notre Dame 27, Michigan State 10

Michigan State covered +28.5 by 11.5. The total, 37, stayed under 51.5.

Team totals	Michigan State	Notre Dame
Total yards	167	395
Passing	9 of 18, 123 yds	18 of 24, 234 yds
Rushing	27 for 44 yds	43 for 161 yds
First downs	11	20
Third down	4 of 11	4 of 12
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	2	0
Penalties	2 for 30 yds	3 for 30 yds
Time of possession	22:58	37:02

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 9 of 17, 123 yds, 2 INT
Rushing Camryn Edwards 12 for 38 yds; Cam Fancher 2 for 18 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Rodney Bullard Jr. 2 for 66 yds; Jayden Savoury 3 for 30 yds

Notre Dame leaders

Passing C.J. Carr 18 of 24, 234 yds
Rushing Nolan James Jr. 26 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Aneyas Williams 9 for 25 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Micah Gilbert 8 for 170 yds; Jordan Faison 5 for 38 yds

No rain and calm

69° at kickoff · no rain on radar during play · wind 4 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 9

September game-day temperatures at Notre Dame Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:44 left7:37 p.m.

Michigan State 0, Notre Dame 0 · Notre Dame 98% to win

no rain · wind 4 mph from the east-southeast · 69°

Carr 61-yd pass to Gilbert

Where this weather comes from

Measured at South Bend airport, 4.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Michigan State · 2-0

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 154th now, up 16 spots.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan #122 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo #50 of 668

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Last two games

Notre Dame · 2-0

Rated 1st in our preseason ratings, 2nd now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 52-0 vs Rice #147 of 668

won by 52 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 41-13 vs Wisconsin #77 of 668

won by 28 as a 21-point favorite

Week by week

Notre Dame

Wk 1Wvs Wisconsin41-13
Wk 2Wvs Rice52-0

Michigan State

Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7

Power rating by week

Notre Dame is rated 21.4 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Notre Dame’s EPA/play against Michigan State, 85 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Notre Dame’s EPA/play against Michigan State’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 96th percentile · Michigan State defense, 11th
Notre Dame’s passing EPA against Michigan State’s defense
Notre Dame offense, 91st percentile · Michigan State defense, 15th
Michigan State’s explosive plays against Notre Dame’s defense
Michigan State offense, 3rd percentile · Notre Dame defense, 47th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Michigan StateNotre Dame

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Notre Dame leads the series 44-28-1

73 meetings since 1899 · Notre Dame won the last meeting

2017Notre Dame 38-18
2016Michigan State 36-28
2013Notre Dame 17-13
2012Notre Dame 20-3
2011Notre Dame 31-13

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Notre Dame fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (61st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Notre Dame favored by 28.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

Notre Dame by 28.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Michigan State.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 3.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild, with rain. Feels like 70° at kickoff.

Michigan State at Notre Dame · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame

70°feels like at kickoff
0.01 inrain at kickoff
99weather score, Comfortable

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Notre Dame Stadium that day, a noon, 1 pm, 2 pm, 3:30 pm or 6 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 99 at 7:30 pm.

noon: 100, Ideal
1 pm: 100, Ideal
2 pm: 100, Ideal
3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
4 pm: 99, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7:30 pm: 99, Comfortable (this game)
7:45 pm: 99, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Notre Dame is worth +3.7 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 41st percentile.

89% at home, 78% on the road against FBS opponents (48-6 home, 29-8 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 114 miles to get here.

No. 3 Notre Dame beats Michigan State 27-10