No. 4 Notre Dame routs Wisconsin 41-13

Wisconsin0-113
No. 4 Notre Dame1-041Final
Sun, Sep 6 · Lambeau Field, Greenbay, Wis. (neutral site) · Crowd 75,939NBC

No. 4 Notre Dame routed Wisconsin 41-13.

We had Notre Dame favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

That’s the best punt I’ve ever seen in my entire life. And I’m from the B1G West.

Q2 14:41 · r/CFB game thread · Sun, Sep 6

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Notre Dame a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (Notre Dame was a 21-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Pick-sixNotre Dame · Q3 8:52
FinalNotre Dame 41-13 WisconsinNotre Dame wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q492% at halfNotre DameWon41-13ScoresPick-sixNotre DameWisconsinNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 28 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 22 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 25 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 15 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 17 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 3 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 18 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 12 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 9 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 0 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 10 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q492% at halfNotre DameWon41-13ScoresPick-sixN. DameWiscons…Notre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 28 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 22 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 25 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 15 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 17 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 3 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 18 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 12 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 9 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 0 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 10 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q48% at halfNotre DameLowest 0%Lost13-41ScoresPick-sixWisconsinNotre DameWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 12 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 9 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 0 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 10 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 28 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 22 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 25 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 15 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 17 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 3 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 18 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q48% at halfNotre DameLowest 0%Lost13-41ScoresPick-sixWiscons…N. DameWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 16 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 14 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 12 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 11 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 9 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 0 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 10 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 7 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 1 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 5 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 8 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 6 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 2 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 3 comments a minuteWisconsin fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 28 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 22 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 25 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 19 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 15 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 2 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 4 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 7 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 6 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 17 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 10 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 21 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 5 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 16 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 8 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 12 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 3 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 9 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 11 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 18 comments a minuteNotre Dame fans: 14 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 14:41West punts 70 yards to the 1-yard line as fans hail it greatest everQuoted at the top of the page.
  2. Q2 12:36Coleman catches deep pass for touchdown as fans celebrate Wisconsin's momentum shiftAstoundingly bad broadcast. Play by play guy apparently only studied the notre dame roster. How do you not know you’re saying the starting safety’s name on that td?r/CFB game thread
Notre Dame’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Notre Dame -21), at 94% for Notre Dame (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Notre Dame or Wisconsin flair (2,038 and 993); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Kickoff came 22 minutes late. No thunder was reported at Ashwaubenon airport (4.0 miles away) around the delay.

Every drive

Notre Dame scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Wisconsin on 3 of its 10.

Notre Dame’s drives are teal, Wisconsin’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Wisconsin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntNotre Dame: Punt, from 79 yards out to 84PuntWisconsin: Field goal, from 37 yards out to 9Field goalNotre Dame: Field goal, from 82 yards out to 34Field goalNotre Dame: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownWisconsin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntQ2Notre Dame: Punt, from 99 yards out to 95PuntWisconsin: Touchdown, from 48 yards out to 0TouchdownNotre Dame: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 8Field goalWisconsin: Punt, from 75 yards out to 36PuntNotre Dame: Punt, from 80 yards out to 79PuntWisconsin: Punt, from 72 yards out to 47PuntNotre Dame: End of half, from 88 yards out to 86End of halfQ3Notre Dame: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownWisconsin: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 55Interception TDWisconsin: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 18Field goalNotre Dame: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Wisconsin: Punt, from 77 yards out to 50PuntNotre Dame: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownWisconsin: End of game, from 76 yards out to 29End of game
“Gambling has ruined college sports”
A Wisconsin fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was roaring.

FirstSecondThirdFourthNotre Dame fansWisconsin fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Notre Dame fans

denbrock“Has Denbrock considered throwing long on 2nd down? Run, run, short pass, punt is pretty predictable.”

Wisconsin fans

fickell“It’s looking like people haven’t tuned into a Fickell coached game with us. This is typical. No guts. No balls. No urgency. Just on to next week.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: punt, half, refs, call.

What it cost

Notre Dame’s chance to make the playoff fell from 68% to 43%.

Make the playoff

Wisconsin · lost1% → 1%
Notre Dame · won68% → ▼43%68%▼ 43%

Win the title

Wisconsin · lost0% → 0%
Notre Dame · won10% → ▼4%10%▼ 4%

Before the game (September 5, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Notre Dame 41, Wisconsin 13

Notre Dame covered −21 by 7. The total, 54, went over 45.5.

WisconsinNotre DameTotal yardsWisconsin 284Notre Dame 350284350Passing yardsWisconsin 217Notre Dame 239217239Rushing yardsWisconsin 67Notre Dame 11167111First downsWisconsin 16Notre Dame 201620TurnoversWisconsin 2Notre Dame 020Time of possessionWisconsin 28:24Notre Dame 31:3628:2431:36
Team totalsWisconsinNotre Dame
Total yards284350
Passing19 of 30, 217 yds19 of 29, 239 yds
Rushing31 for 67 yds32 for 111 yds
First downs1620
Third down5 of 133 of 9
Fourth down1 of 11 of 1
Turnovers20
Penalties6 for 43 yds4 for 41 yds
Time of possession28:2431:36

Wisconsin leaders

  • Passing Colton Joseph 19 of 30, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Abu Sama III 15 for 49 yds; Darrion Dupree 4 for 15 yds
  • Receiving Malachi Coleman 4 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Tyrell Henry 4 for 42 yds

Notre Dame leaders

  • Passing C.J. Carr 19 of 29, 239 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Aneyas Williams 20 for 90 yds, 2 TD; Nolan James Jr. 7 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Jordan Faison 4 for 81 yds; Nolan James Jr. 4 for 67 yds, 1 TD

Kickoff came 22 minutes late

69° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 10

No thunder was reported at Ashwaubenon airport (4.0 miles away) around the delay.

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Notre Dame favoredWisconsin favored100%Win chanceNotre DameRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Notre Dame favoredWisconsin favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 15:00 left6:51 p.m.
Wisconsin 0, Notre Dame 0 · Notre Dame 94% to win
no rain · wind 7 mph from the east · 69°
Sama 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ashwaubenon airport, 4.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Wisconsin · 4-8

Rated 86th in our preseason ratings.

L 7-17 @ Minnesota #81 of 667

lost by 10 as a 2.5-point favorite

Wisconsin lost 7-17 at Minnesota. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 55%.

W 27-10 vs IllinoisTop 25 #50 of 667

won by 17 as an 8.5-point underdog

Wisconsin won 27-10 vs Illinois. Chance to win started at 35%, low 26%, high better than 99%.

L 7-31 @ IndianaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 24 as a 27.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 7-31 at Indiana. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 6%.

W 13-10 vs WashingtonTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

Wisconsin won 13-10 vs Washington. Chance to win started at 28%, low 10%, high 91%.

L 7-21 @ OregonTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 14 as a 31.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 7-21 at Oregon. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 6%.

L 0-34 vs Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 34 as a 24.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 0-34 vs Ohio State. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 8%.

L 0-37 vs IowaTop 25 #34 of 667

lost by 37 as a 4.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 0-37 vs Iowa. Chance to win started at 45%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 10-24 @ MichiganTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 14 as a 17.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 10-24 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 10-27 vs Maryland #51 of 667

lost by 17 as a 10.5-point favorite

Wisconsin lost 10-27 vs Maryland. Chance to win started at 83%, low under 1%, high 88%.

L 14-38 @ AlabamaTop 25 #7 of 667

lost by 24 as an 18.5-point underdog

Wisconsin lost 14-38 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 12%.

W 42-10 vs Middle Tennessee #190 of 667

won by 32 as a 28.5-point favorite

Wisconsin won 42-10 vs Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 97%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 17-0 vs Miami (OH) #74 of 667

won by 17 as an 18.5-point favorite

Wisconsin won 17-0 vs Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 92%, low 86%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Notre Dame · 10-2

Rated 1st in our preseason ratings.

W 49-20 @ Stanford #100 of 667

won by 29 as a 33.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 49-20 at Stanford. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 70-7 vs Syracuse #136 of 667

won by 63 as a 36.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 70-7 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 37-15 @ PittsburghTop 25 #41 of 667

won by 22 as a 12.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 37-15 at Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 71%, low 66%, high better than 99%.

W 49-10 vs NavyTop 25 #103 of 667

won by 39 as a 30.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 49-10 vs Navy. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 25-10 @ Boston College #100 of 667

won by 15 as a 30.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 25-10 at Boston College. Chance to win started at 96%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

W 34-24 vs USCTop 25 #12 of 667

won by 10 as a 10.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 34-24 vs USC. Chance to win started at 83%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

W 36-7 vs NC State #45 of 667

won by 29 as a 24.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 36-7 vs NC State. Chance to win started at 96%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 28-7 vs Boise StateTop 25 #51 of 667

won by 21 as a 21.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 28-7 vs Boise State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 86%, high better than 99%.

W 56-13 @ Arkansas #22 of 667

won by 43 as a 5.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 56-13 at Arkansas. Chance to win started at 59%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 56-30 vs Purdue #88 of 667

won by 26 as a 24.5-point favorite

Notre Dame won 56-30 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 96%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

L 40-41 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #17 of 667

lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite

Notre Dame lost 40-41 vs Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 75%, low under 1%, high 92%.

L 24-27 @ MiamiTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Notre Dame lost 24-27 at Miami. Chance to win started at 44%, low under 1%, high 59%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Notre Dame’s explosive plays against Wisconsin, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Notre Dame’s explosive plays against Wisconsin’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Notre Dame offense, 25th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 99th

  2. Wisconsin’s success rate against Notre Dame’s defense

    60 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wisconsin offense, 24th percentile · Notre Dame defense, 84th

  3. Notre Dame’s rushing EPA against Wisconsin’s defense

    42 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Notre Dame offense, 87th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 45th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

WisconsinNotre Dame
EPA/play, offense
Wisconsin · 46Notre Dame · 96
EPA/play, defense
Wisconsin · 90Notre Dame · 91
Success rate, offense
Wisconsin · 24Notre Dame · 93
Success rate, defense
Wisconsin · 82Notre Dame · 84
Explosive-play rate, offense
Wisconsin · 90Notre Dame · 25
Explosive-play rate, defense
Wisconsin · 99Notre Dame · 47
Rush EPA, offense
Wisconsin · 77Notre Dame · 87
Rush EPA, defense
Wisconsin · 45Notre Dame · 95
Pass EPA, offense
Wisconsin · 27Notre Dame · 91
Pass EPA, defense
Wisconsin · 94Notre Dame · 61

The series

Notre Dame leads the series 9-6-2

17 meetings since 1900 · Notre Dame has won the last 2

Notre Dame wonWisconsin won1900: Wisconsin by 541904: Wisconsin by 581905: Wisconsin by 211917: tie1924: Notre Dame by 351928: Wisconsin by 161929: Notre Dame by 191934: Notre Dame by 191935: Notre Dame by 271936: Notre Dame by 271942: tie1943: Notre Dame by 501944: Notre Dame by 151962: Wisconsin by 91963: Wisconsin by 51964: Notre Dame by 242021: Notre Dame by 2819002021
  • 2021 · neutral siteNotre Dame 41-13Notre Dame won 41-13 vs Wisconsin. Chance to win started at 36%, low 22%, high better than 99%.
  • 1964Notre Dame 31-7
  • 1963Wisconsin 14-9
  • 1962Wisconsin 17-8
  • 1944Notre Dame 28-13

Each line is Notre Dame’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Notre Dame fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (19th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 95% · Line 95%Notre Dame fans · 19thWisconsin fans · 4thWisconsinNotre Dame

Notre Dame favored by 21 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

Notre Dame by 21, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The total fell 2 points.

opened 47.5now 45.5

Total: 47.5 → 45.5

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

The story going in

Where next