Boston College2-103Bill O'Brien's third season at Boston College follows a 2-10 losing record, with the fanbase cautiously building confidence amid a program defined by its historic Flutie legacy and academic identity.
Boston College is the Power-conference program that holds onto a frozen-rope miracle from 1984 because the four decades since haven't given Chestnut Hill anything bigger to point to.
Eagles fans hear the same shrug every fall — that Northeast football doesn't travel, that the league forgets BC is in it — and they answer with a Heisman, a Hail Mary, and a checkbook the school just…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Cincinnati · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
Boston College is the ACC academic-private program whose 1984 Doug Flutie Hail Mary + 1984 Heisman + Alumni Stadium tradition define what Catholic-Northeast-football looks like.
The team faces moderate continuity challenges but benefits from a balanced portal churn and a development class ranked #53 in recruiting. With 26 transfers in and 30 out, the roster reload score of "Moderate continuity" suggests a moderate impact on performance.
Baldwin the Eagle is patient.
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Bill O'Brien's third season at Boston College follows a 2-10 losing record, with the program's identity rooted in its 1984 Heisman-winning legacy and academic-private tradition.
Boston College dropped 27 spots in SP+ — Bill O'Brien's second season opens with a 2-10 record and no clear path to reversing the slide.
Reed Harris is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
Reed Harris produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
Bill O'Brien's third season at Boston College follows a 2-10 losing record, with the fanbase cautiously building confidence amid a program defined by its historic Flutie legacy and academic identity.
Boston College dropped 27 spots in SP+ — the 2-10 record and lack of returning production raise questions about whether the program can reclaim its identity as a Catholic-Northeast football standard-bearer under Bill O'Brien.
Jeremiah Franklin is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Jordan Mcdonald: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
2027 TE commits to BC
Class sits at #59 nationally and the TE room has real pressure after four draft departures — Phifer is a 2027 anchor, not a quick patch, but O'Brien needs to start building the position back from scratch somewhere.
TE Chase Phifer commits to Boston College
Four NFL Draft departures gutted the roster and O'Brien's development class sits 59th — Phifer is the kind of TE-room pressure valve that actually shows up in spring reps, not just on a signing-day graphic.
Top 3 commits
Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program
79th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Boston College · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Boston College enters 2025 rated No. 97 in SP+ (-8.5), down 27 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 38 of 161 board posts (24%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (56 posts): 16% positive · 79% neutral · 5% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Boston College: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 16 of 161 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (56 posts): 16% positive · 79% neutral · 5% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Opens Sep 5
vs Cincinnati · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MA leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 17 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
82 signees across 26 states, 2023-2026. MA leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 8 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 4 afternoon, 4 primetime
Recovering 10% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
1 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 11 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
6 interceptions of 41 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 71 penalties committed vs. 81 drawn on opponents, a 134-yard edge.
596 penalty yards committed vs. 730 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 5 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Boston College fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Sorsby made them record a defensive video and post it on Twitter and then email the entire campus!
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readBoston College fans are cautiously optimistic, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 56 posts from Boston College fans this week.
“Dearest Mother, My first win as General Manager! Please frame this letter next to my kindergarten hand print. I must now fix my flat bicycle tires and ride home. Your son, Andrew”— r/CFB
“And Jag went to progressively worse jobs after that and hasn’t coached for 2 years.”— r/CFB
“Believe it or not, this was BC’s second best game of the year. A Bill O’Bum masterclass.”— r/CFB
“If you’re a true diehard Boston College fan… the Everydayer All-Access tier is built for you. You’ll get one-on-one text access with me, bonus episodes, an exclusive newsletter, and a 15% discount to the Locked On merch store. Head to https://lockedonbostoncollege.supercast.co…”— locked_on_boston-college
“>Hartford looking real dangerous going into the USL playoffs Words I legitimately never thought I would hear, including halfway through this season”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Boston College · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.22 EPA/play | 9 | 10 | 190 / 284 | 66.9 | 2025 | 7.1 | 12 | 5 | 137.2 | 54.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket SurgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 12 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %68.3% 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-1.0 bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Lonergan's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.29 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 87 / 151 | 57.6 | 1196 | 7.9 | 7 | 5 | 132.8 | 51.7 | 6.1 | 10.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Grayson James's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.04 EPA/play | 10 | 3 | 10 / 19 | 52.6 | 141 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | 111.3 | 41.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.08 EPA/play | 2 | 11 | 145 | 749 | 5.2 | 9 #65 FBS | 71 | 19.2 | 13.8 | 19.4 | 8.6 | 10.3% (41/399) | |
Yards by week → Satellite Back· Boom-or-bustDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share17.1% 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.2% 77th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 35th to 84th percentile among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.00 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 94 | 397 | 4.2 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 7.5 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.8 bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception6.5 bottom 36th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Mcdonald's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.65 EPA/play | 11 | 12 | 89 | 1010 #20 FBS | 11.3 | 1 | 54 | 19.9 | 21.8 | 27.8% (111/399) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume89 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)63.5 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 98th percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 81st | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.54 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 39 | 673 | 17.3 | 5 | 57 | 11.6 | 10.8 | 16.3% (65/399) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception19.0 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.8% 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reed Harris's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.18 EPA/play | 17 | 12 | 48 | 489 | 10.2 | 2 | 32 | 6 | 9.3 | 15.8% (63/399) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 42th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume48 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 91st percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 75th | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.44 EPA/play | 85 | 11 | 24 | 313 | 13.0 | 4 | 45 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 9.8% (39/399) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.7 77th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate16.7% 83th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaelan Chudzinski's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.35 EPA/play | 88 | 7 | 13 | 197 | 15.2 | 1 | 52 | 6 | 3.6 | 5.5% (22/399) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception31.0 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 12th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dawson Pough's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.72 EPA/play | 1 | 3 | 13 | 140 | 10.8 | 3 | 22 | 6.5 | 8.2 | — | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.5 bottom 41th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate23.1% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaedn Skeete's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 83 | 4 | 5 | 72 | 14.4 | 0 | 39 | 4.8 | 5.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 11 | 36 | 16 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.7% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Quintayvious Hutchins's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 17 | 10 | 31 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.2% bottom 12th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Edwin Kolenge's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 88 | 11 | 31 | 17 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.2% 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 60th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 20th | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 9 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight318 lb 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kwan Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 10 | 22 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Chris Marable Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 56 | 10 | 19 | 16 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.2% bottom 44th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View E'Lla Boykin's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 41 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.1% bottom 22th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Favor Bate's full player page | |||||||
| 90 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 91 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 92 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 93 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 59 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 33 | 11 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.9% bottom 37th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 19th to 54th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 5 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryce Steele's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 43 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Griffin Collins's full player page | |||||||||
| 1 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 26 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 2 | 12 | 93 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Box Safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume93 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View KP Price's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | — | 12 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume82 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 16th percentile among FBS Ss to the 89th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 12 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Carter Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 16 | 9 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.4% 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 2nd to 22nd percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 30 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View TJ Green's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Max Tucker's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Marcus Upton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 32 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Charlie Comella's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 99 | 12 | 16/17 | 94.1 | 35/35 | 83 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 30 | 9 | 6 | 130 | 21.7 | 0 | 33 |
| +0.09 EPA/play | 24 | 5 | 7 | 124 | 17.7 | 0 | 23 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerfielder | 16 | 9 | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 | 21 |
| Hybrid Nickel | 32 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 20 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+13 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #60 | #231 | -34.5 | Fordham | W 66–10 143 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #75 | #71 | +3.5 | @Michigan State | L 40–42 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #61 | #83 | -13.5 | @Stanford | L 20–30 123 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #64 | #65 | -6.5 | California | L 24–28 128 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #69 | #52 | +6.5 | @Pittsburgh | L 7–48 142 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #82 | #16 | +13.5 | Clemson | L 10–41 137 | 1-5 | 0-4 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #95 | #66 | +2.5 | UConn | L 23–38 135 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #97 | #24 | +25.5 | @Louisville | L 24–38 141 | 1-7 | 0-5 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #99 | #3 | +31 | Notre Dame | L 10–25 133 | 1-8 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #97 | #18 | +10.5 | SMU | L 13–45 151 | 1-9 | 0-6 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #127 | #35 | +16.5 | Georgia Tech | L 34–36 142 | 1-10 | 0-7 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #114 | #160 | -3 | @Syracuse | W 34–12 114 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Syracuse | W 34–12 | 433 | 0 | 26:50 | +0.343 | 40.0% | 170.2% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | Georgia Tech | L 34–36 | 537 | 0 | 27:16 | +0.399 | 47.1% | 146.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 8 | SMU | L 13–45 | 390 | 4 | 32:58 | -0.142 | 43.5% | 92.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | Notre Dame | L 10–25 | 281 | 3 | 35:27 | -0.010 | 36.7% | 114.9% | |
| Oct 25 | @Louisville | L 24–38 | 360 | 3 | 35:44 | +0.132 | 37.6% | 124.8% | |
| Oct 18 | UConn | L 23–38 | 395 | 0 | 32:08 | +0.201 | 44.3% | 125.8% | |
| Oct 11 | Clemson | L 10–41 | 221 | 2 | 22:39 | -0.007 | 40.3% | 95.2% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 4 | @Pittsburgh | L 7–48 | 216 | 3 | 20:52 | -0.005 | 33.3% | 126.4% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 27 | California | L 24–28 | 375 | 2 | 24:45 | +0.256 | 43.3% | 150.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 14 | @Stanford | L 20–30 | 389 | 3 | 28:16 | +0.047 | 43.3% | 96.8% | |
| Sep 6 | @Michigan State | L 40–42 | 457 | 1 | 30:12 | +0.305 | 51.9% | 99.1% | Best success rate |
| Aug 30 | Fordham | W 66–10 | 556 | 0 | 34:05 | +0.448 | 51.3% | 135.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (12 games) | 384 | 1.8 | +0.164 | 42.7% | 123.1% | ||||
Boston College fields a limited pass-first offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
37th percentile quality, 54th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 66th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 53rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
56th percentile success on standard downs, 54th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 48th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 29th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 60th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.45 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Boston College reads strongest in success rate (top 44%) and passing epa (top 46%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Boston College sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Boston College
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Boston College · 2018-present
51% home win rate vs 37% on the road. margin runs +8.3 better at home. Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) seats 44,500, averaging 86% full (38,360 attendance, 27 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Turbo Richard and Jordan Mcdonald split the carries (143/239 vs 96/239) -- but Turbo Richard leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Lewis Bond (WR) and Jeremiah Franklin (TE) split the targets (111/174 vs 63/174) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Boston College’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 112-play sample) — mid-pack, 88 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
59°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 78 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Boston College's 2014–2025 record is 68-81. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1893 · 115 seasons · .532 win rate
Doug Flutie's Hail Mary is still the most replayed throw in college-football history. Bill O'Brien went 2-10 in year two. Both of those things are true at 140 Commonweath Avenue right now, and that gap is the whole story of Boston College football.
Boston College is a Jesuit university in Chestnut Hill that built its football identity around being the Northeast's flagship — not a recruiting machine, not a title-chaser, but a program that does it the right way and lets 'For Boston,' college football's oldest fight song, carry the weight of the tradition. The Hail Mary belongs to them — Flutie's 48-yard prayer to Gerard Phelan in the day-after-Thanksgiving snow against defending-champion Miami in 1984, the throw that put a Jesuit school on the national map and moved enough applications to get its own term, 'the Flutie effect.' The 1984 Heisman lives in Chestnut Hill. The 2007 Matt Ryan ACC contender lives there. Luke Kuechly's Butkus Award lives there. The tradition is real. The recent record is not.
O'Brien's second season in 2025 cratered to 2-10 — 1-7 in the ACC — the program's worst in over a decade, a ten-game losing streak broken only by Syracuse. Rather than part ways with the NFL-pedigree hire, the school doubled down: retained O'Brien for year three and publicly committed to a maximum revenue-share allotment and larger operational investment in football. That's the offseason move that shifted belief in Chestnut Hill. The argument has always been that BC won't outspend, outrecruit, or out-scheme the ACC's best. The new argument, still unproven, is that it will.
The 2026 season is a clear test for O'Brien — not of his credentials, which are real, but of whether those credentials translate to the ACC with a Power-conference budget behind them. BC has finished the regular season ranked exactly once since Matt Ryan graduated. The question 2026 will answer: does the investment change the product, or does the Power-Four seat keep yielding the same Chestnut Hill ceiling?
For-Boston football: physical, offensive-line-proud — the 'O-Line U' reputation is self-applied and partly earned — and allergic to shortcuts. The identity is less a scheme than a posture: blue-collar, Northeast-Catholic, clean. O'Brien's NFL background layers a pro-style structure over that base, with pocket-pass principles and a developmental approach to the QB room. The fanbase reads the offensive line as the leading indicator of whether this staff can actually build.
Boston College 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.13 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 2-10
Boston College: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
ACC Standing · 2025
Boston College is 16th of 17 in the ACC at 1-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · Boston College
Bill O'Brien in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1984
Doug Flutie's 48-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to beat Miami 47-45 on November 23, 1984 — one of CFB's most-iconic individual moments. The play + Flutie's 1984 Heisman + the 10-2 + Cotton Bowl run + BC's national prominence make the moment permanent CFB canon. The replay is shown every November.
since 1880s
'For Boston' — the BC fight song chorus + alumni mantra — captures the Catholic-Boston-academic football identity. The song dates to the 1880s + remains the program's identity anchor. The Boston metropolitan-area split-loyalty (vs Patriots / Celtics / Red Sox / Bruins) makes BC's identity distinct.
since 2007
Matt Ryan's 2007 11-3 + ACC Atlantic championship + 2008 #3 NFL draft was the modern peak. Ryan's NFL career (Falcons MVP) + the 2007 hot-take 'BC is a contender' moment + the late-2000s ACC competitive era cement the program's modern relevance.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1984
Flutie's 48-yard touchdown to beat No. 12 Miami 47-45 the day after Thanksgiving
Miracle
1984
The first and only Heisman in program history
1993
David Gordon's last-second field goal beats No. 1 Notre Dame 41-39
Moment of the Year · Boston College · 2025
Week 7 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — loss 20-15 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202611 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Ted Roof — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Boston College · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Boston College · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Boston College
Season Standing · 2025 · 2-10
Coaching Era · Boston College
Moment of the Year · Boston College · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline