Florida State at Boston College
Florida State (3‑5) at Boston College (4‑4) — Florida State is favored by 6.5. The model gives Florida State a 62% shot. Florida State’s offense is at the 95th percentile on explosive plays; Boston College’s defense is at the 59th.
How they got here
Last three games
Florida State · 3-5
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 68th now, up 14 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Boston College · 4-4
Rated 130th in our preseason ratings, 107th now, up 23 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 22-point win over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Florida State’s explosive plays against Boston College, 36 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida State’s explosive plays against Boston College’s defense
Florida State offense, 95th percentile · Boston College defense, 59th
Florida State’s rushing EPA against Boston College’s defense
Florida State offense, 79th percentile · Boston College defense, 46th
What’s at stake
Florida State
- Florida State needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 41% to get there with a win here, 9% with a loss.
- Florida State is the program whose ceiling people forget and whose floor people overrate.
Boston College
- Boston College needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 48% to get there with a win here, 5% with a loss.
- Boston College is still shaking off a 45-point loss.
The series
Florida State leads the series 16-6
22 meetings since 1957 · Boston College won the last meeting
- 2024Boston College 28-13
- 2023Florida State 31-29
- 2022Florida State 44-14
- 2021Florida State 26-23
- 2019Florida State 38-31
Each line is Boston College’s chance to win through that meeting. Boston College is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Florida State
The chip · vs the committeeFans will tell you the sport changed its own rules to keep them out — that a perfect season and a conference title weren't enough because the committee decided, in a back room, that the Seminoles didn't pass an eye test. They expanded the Playoff the very next year; the bracket that would have included them came one season too late.
What this game touches
The 2023 snub and the wreckage it triggered. Florida State finished 13-0 and won the ACC, then the committee left it out of the four-team Playoff for one-loss Alabama and Texas — the only undefeated Power Five champ ever excluded. The roster gutted, opted out of the Orange Bowl, lost it 63-3, and cratered to 2-10 in 2024; a 5-7 stumble in 2025 (after starting the year beating Alabama and climbing to No. 7) showed the climb back isn't done.
Boston College
The chip · vs the national mediaEagles fans hear the same shrug every fall — that Northeast football doesn't travel, that the league forgets BC is in it — and they answer with a Heisman, a Hail Mary, and a checkbook the school just opened wider.
What this game touches
The 2025 floor — two wins, and the seat finally warm. Bill O'Brien's second year went 2-10 (1-7 ACC), the program's worst in over a decade, and a 10-game losing streak only ended against Syracuse — a season that asked, out loud, whether an NFL-pedigree hire could lift a program that has finished the regular season ranked exactly once since Matt Ryan left.
Best players
Florida State
- CJ Richard Jr. (DB) · 53 tackles
- Ashton Daniels (QB) · 1,968 passing yards
- Ashlynd Barker (DB) · 47 tackles
Boston College
- Anthony Palano (LB) · 69 tackles
- KP Price (DB) · 60 tackles
- Marcus Upton (DB) · 51 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Ousmane Kromah (RB) — Florida State’s leading rusher (609 rushing yards) takes on Boston College’s run defense (46th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Boston College fans are in a better mood than Florida State fans (59th percentile vs 19th among FBS fanbases), even with Florida State favored.
Florida State favored by 6.5 · Total 50.5
Florida State by 6.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Florida State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Alumni Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 89 to 92
Florida State at Boston College · Saturday, Nov. 7 · noon ET · Alumni Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Alumni Stadium: noon Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 89.
- noon: 92, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Boston College is worth +1.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.
46% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (22-26 home, 17-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.1 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,097 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Boston College
- Wk 4Lvs Virginia Tech14-21
- Wk 5Lat SMU16-25
- Wk 7Wvs Pittsburgh27-21
- Wk 8Wat Georgia Tech49-27
- Wk 9Lat Duke2-47
Florida State
- Wk 4Wvs Central Arkansas34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Virginia38-7
- Wk 6Lat Louisville20-44
- Wk 7Lat Miami35-43
- Wk 9Lvs Clemson24-36
Power rating by week
Florida State is rated 4.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 51.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Boston College11th2-3
- Florida State17th1-4
Last meeting in our History pages
- Boston College 28, Florida State 13Sep 2, 2024