SMU (#19) at Florida State (1-0) — SMU (#19) is favored by 3.
What’s at stake
Florida State
- Florida State sits at 2% to make the CFP field — 3% with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Florida State is coming off a 17-point win.
SMU
- SMU sits at 23% to make the CFP field — 28% with a win here, 15% with a loss.
- SMU is the Pony Express program that survived the death penalty, returned to the ACC in 2024, and went 11-3 with a CFP appearance in year one of the P5 reboot.
The series
SMU leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2024 · SMU won the last meeting
- 2024SMU 42–16
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
SMU
The chip · vs the national mediaMustang fans are done being a cautionary tale. They'll tell you SMU paid its debt twice over, made the first 12-team Playoff in year one of the ACC, and that anyone still leading with the penalty is forty years behind the program.
Florida State
The chip · vs the committeeFans will tell you the sport changed its own rules to keep them out — that a perfect season and a conference title weren't enough because the committee decided, in a back room, that the Seminoles didn't pass an eye test. They expanded the Playoff the very next year; the bracket that would have included them came one season too late.
What this game touches
The 2023 snub and the wreckage it triggered. Florida State finished 13-0 and won the ACC, then the committee left it out of the four-team Playoff for one-loss Alabama and Texas — the only undefeated Power Five champ ever excluded. The roster gutted, opted out of the Orange Bowl, lost it 63-3, and cratered to 2-10 in 2024; a 5-7 stumble in 2025 (after starting the year beating Alabama and climbing to No. 7) showed the climb back isn't done.
Best players
Florida State
- Jalen Anderson (DL) · 1 sacks
- Ashlynd Barker (DB) · 8 tackles
- Ousmane Kromah (RB) · 115 rushing yards
SMU
- Ahmaad Moses (S) · 2025: 104 tackles
- Kevin Jennings (QB) · 2025: 3,641 passing yards — Heisman odds: 30th (+7500)
- Isaiah Nwokobia (S) · 2025: 80 tackles
The line, and the room
SMU fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (53rd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 27%
- Market · 40%
- Florida State fans · 9th
- SMU fans · 53rd
Home +3 · O/U 53
Conditions
79°F · 5 mph wind · Heavy Rain Shower
Florida State is 63% at home, 32% on the road since 2018 (34-20 home, 12-25 away).
The market
Spread: +2.5 → +3 · Total: 52.5 → 53
Book hold: 3.8%
Conference standings
- Florida State#40-0
- SMU#50-0