Big 12 · Dave Aranda, year 7 (38-38) · McLane Stadium · 45,140 · 39,992 avg in 2026
LastW 36–19 vs Louisiana Tech · Sat Sep 19 · Nate Bennett 253 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 rush yds
Nextvs Colorado · Sat Sep 26 · 12 pm ET · McLane Stadium · Baylor by 10 · series 7-10, last win 2010 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #33 | #71 | +6.5✓ | Auburn (N) | L 16–17 175 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #36 | #109 | -37.5✓ | Prairie View A&M | W 44–3 136 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #36 | #82 | -20.5✗ | Louisiana Tech | W 36–19 146 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #35 | #125 | -10 | Colorado | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #35 | #52 | @Arizona State | ||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | TCU | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Kansas | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 30 | @UCF | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Iowa State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @BYU | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Texas Tech | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Houston |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Louisiana Tech | W 36–19 | 418 | 2 | 27:42 | +0.213 | 36.2% | 151.6% | Most explosive |
| Sep 13 | Prairie View A&M | W 44–3 | 552 | 3 | 34:22 | +0.260 | 49.4% | 124.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Auburn | L 16–17 | 436 | 2 | 32:32 | +0.054 | 38.6% | 123.2% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 469 | 2.3 | +0.176 | 41.4% | 133.0% | ||||
Baylor is the program that scaled the mountaintop, collapsed all the way to the bottom, and then climbed back to a Big 12 title — proof in Waco that a faith-rooted rebuild could outlast the era that nearly ended it.
Bears fans say the country still files Baylor under one chapter of its past and refuses to look at what the program rebuilt — they say Waco won a Big 12 title the honest way and never got credit for…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 5-7 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 4-6 over the last 10, and won the last two.
I work with Nate a lot, so being able to see him put in all this work, even though he’s been going with the second group because of DJ, he’s been working just as hard
Next Sep 26
vs Colorado · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Baylor collapsed 33 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Big 12 this cycle, and Dave Aranda's job is to stop it before 5-7 becomes structural under his watch.
our readbackground
Baylor's highest-ranked portal class on record arrives as Dave Aranda confronts a 5-7 losing season, with QB DJ Lagway and CB Devon Jordan addressing gaps in a program rooted in faith and defensive identity.
our readdeveloping
Ashtyn Hawkins produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
our readdeveloping
Kole Wilson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Michael Trigg produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Dave Aranda enters his 7th season with a 5-7 losing record, raising questions about whether Baylor's faith-driven identity can stabilize a program in flux.
our readdeveloping
Ashtyn Hawkins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Josh Cameron sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
Michael Trigg is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Michael Turner sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Baylor · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Baylor enters 2025 rated No. 71 in SP+ (+1.4), down 33 spots from 2024. It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 483 of 1644 board posts (29%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Baylor signed a top-13 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by D.J. Lagway (QB) from Florida and Devon Jordan (CB) from Oklahoma. It is program's highest-ranked portal class on record. Signing-day rank doesn't survive a loaded depth chart. The skeptics are counting starter slots, not signees. The room is questioning depth-chart fit — not every signee gets the snaps.
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
This event was in 77 of 1644 board posts (5%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Baylor is the program that produced an offensive revolution under Art Briles and rebuilt its identity around faith and the Dave Aranda era.
NCAA eligibility battle ongoing
Aranda's opening game is already circling Atlanta against Golesh's Auburn — an eligibility cloud hanging over the RB room right now is the last thing a 6.5-win line needs heading into that kind of spotlight.
Walker sues NCAA over eligibility
Walker taking the NCAA to court over eligibility while Baylor's RB room is already under pressure — Aranda can't afford to lose another body at a spot the roster has no depth buffer for.
Mitchell granted temporary injunction
Mitchell's injunction keeps a live roster piece in Waco while Aranda's RB room is already under a microscope — a 5.5 win total doesn't have margin for more attrition at the position.
Tezino out for season with leg injury
Already leaning on backup QB Bennett after the Prairie View opener — now Tezino's leg tears a hole in a defense built around a #57 class that can't afford more depth math problems.
Baylor NIL deal for Lagway
Win total already bled from 6.5 down to 5.5 and the RB room is carrying real pressure after two draft exits — Aranda locking in Lagway with NIL money is the program saying it knows exactly where the floor is.
Gavin Freeman: 12 rec · 154 yds · 1 TD vs Auburn
Top 1% catches game since 2021. vs Auburn (FBS) L 16-17.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Baylor player grew up 168 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to McLane Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 139 of 146 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
31st percentile among FBS programs
Recovering 40% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~52% league rate.
2 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Converting 25% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
4 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (12 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
The penalty battle is a wash: 24 penalties committed vs. 25 drawn on opponents.
215 penalty yards committed vs. 215 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Baylor · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026