4identity shift
Baylor shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Dave Aranda enters his sixth season at Baylor with a 5-7 losing record, navigating a fanbase in transition and a program redefining its identity beyond the Art Briles era.
Baylor5-7Latest
Cautious optimism is building around Baylor.
belief cooled ↓ 16.0vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
53/100 · 147 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
10% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 19 pts
~ our readThe model
#55
CFB Zeitgeist · +3.4
✓ measured4Hope-Doping·Offseason
Baylor is the program that scaled the mountaintop, collapsed all the way to the bottom, and then climbed back to a Big 12 title — proof in Waco that a faith-rooted rebuild could outlast the era that nearly ended it.
Title DroughtSince 2021 · 4 yrs
Bears fans say the country still files Baylor under one chapter of its past and refuses to look at what the program rebuilt — they say Waco won a Big 12 title the honest way and never got credit for t…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Baylor
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production82%High continuity
Talent Composite#35 nationally247 composite 726.3
Portal Additions31Primary repair: WR
Portal Losses32Primary pressure: RB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#57Development class
DLin 6 - Hosea Wheelerout 4 - Samu TaumanupepeNeed Filled
current room: 305 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 4 - Colby McCalisterout 5 - Carl Williams IVEven
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 5 - Nate Kibbleout 3 - Coleton PriceNeed Filled
current room: 313 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Garrick Ponderout 4 - Kamauryn MorganStarter Risk
LBin 2 - JJ Sheltonout 4 - Keaton ThomasStarter Risk
current room: 232 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 3 - Devon Jordanout 3 - Caldra WillifordEven
current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Auburn · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
The experience
Baylor is the program that produced an offensive revolution under Art Briles and rebuilt its identity around faith and the Dave Aranda era.
Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Soft
Baylor's 2026 Season Balances High Continuity with Strategic Roster Reload
Baylor enters the 2026 season with 82% returning players and a development-class recruiting cohort, aiming for a 9-4 record in the base scenario.
- Roster reloadBaylor's roster features 82% returning players, with a development-class recruiting cohort ranked #57 and a transfer-in total of 31 players.
- ScheduleBaylor's base scenario projects a 9-4 record with 4 losses and a bowl game appearance.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Joy and Lady are resting.
Baylor · the story right now
12 storylines developing
What Baylor's identity shift is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
identitythis cycle~readnew
Dave Aranda enters his sixth season at Baylor with a 5-7 losing record, navigating a fanbase in transition and a program redefining its identity beyond the Art Briles era.
what happenedBaylor: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-03-30~readnew
Baylor's highest-ranked portal class on record arrives as Dave Aranda confronts a 5-7 losing season, with QB DJ Lagway and CB Devon Jordan addressing gaps in a program rooted in faith and defensive identity.
what happenedBaylor signed a top-13 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by DJ Lagway (QB) from Florida and Devon Jordan (CB) from Oklahoma. ✓ fact
the contextprogram's highest-ranked portal class on record
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Ashtyn Hawkins produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Kole Wilson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Michael Trigg produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-07-04~readnew
Dave Aranda enters his sixth season at Baylor with a 5-7 losing record and a talent rank of #35, raising questions about sustaining the program's identity amid a win total.
what happenedBaylor win total fell from 6.5 to 6 (-0.5 wins) between Jul 3 and Jul 4, 2026 (tier B). ✓ fact
the contextwin total down 0.5 — crosses below projected winning season territory
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Ashtyn Hawkins is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Josh Cameron sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Michael Trigg is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Michael Turner sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Dave Aranda begins his sixth season at Baylor, inheriting a 5-7 losing record and a program seeking to redefine its identity beyond the Aranda era.
what happenedBaylor: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Baylor collapsed 33 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Big 12 this cycle, and Dave Aranda's job is to stop it before 5-7 becomes structural under his watch.
what happenedBaylor enters 2025 rated No. 71 in SP+ (+1.4), down 33 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
Died downBaylor's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Baylor
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Walker sues NCAA over eligibility
Walker taking the NCAA to court over eligibility while Baylor's RB room is already under pressure — Aranda can't afford to lose another body at a spot the roster has no depth buffer for.
- News
Aranda discusses eligibility updates
Win total's already slid to 6 and eligibility clarity is the last lever Aranda can pull — who stays, who qualifies, and who's actually available at RB shapes whether this roster can cover that number.
- News
Louis Brown redshirts for 2026 season
Aranda's RB room already shed two NFL guys and sits at #36 nationally — Brown sitting out 2026 means the depth answer gets pushed another year, not solved.
- Portal
IOL Cooper Lovelace transfer commits from Colorado
Big-12 internal — Lovelace was rotating snaps in Boulder, gets a starter shot in Waco.
- News
Yakiri Walker denied injunction
Court said no — Walker stays blocked from the field, and Aranda's O-line depth chart is messier heading into fall than anyone wanted with two draft departures already thinning the room.
- Recruiting
David Gabriel Georges commits to Vols
Baylor's 5-star RB — the one the program actually developed — chose Tennessee over Ohio State, and now a Bears backfield already under pressure with two NFL exits and a #57 class has one fewer answer to the question everyone's been asking.
Transfer portal snapshot
+3.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: +3.0 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR+17.8
need not filled
RB-8.8
starter risk
DL+8.1
need not filled
EDGE-7.7
starter risk
LB-7.4
starter risk
IOL+6.4
need not filled
K-3.4
low confidence
S-1.1
LS-1.0
low confidence
OT-1.0
QB+0.8
TE+0.2
CB+0.1
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Ryelan Morris
#291 national
★★★★☆
Jae'Lin Battle
#330 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Donel Robinson
#374 national
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
48th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market≈
48th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5▲0.5 since Aug 2026
CFP championship#39 in field+25000
Big 12 title#10 in market+1800
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Baylor · Next-Season Outcome Band
Baylor · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Baylor · Developing Confidence
Baylor: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Baylor: the fanbase's identity shifting.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 48% volume · negative overall
Developing1 new this week
yesterdayWin total: 6 → 6.5 (▲0.5)
2 weeks agoWalker sues NCAA over eligibility — Reported
4 weeks agoAranda discusses eligibility updates — Reported
4 weeks agoLouis Brown redshirts for 2026 season — Reported
4 weeks agoWin total: 6.5 → 6 (▼0.5)
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Dave Aranda enters his sixth season at Baylor with a 5-7 losing record, navigating a fanbase in transition and a program redefining its identity beyond the Art Briles era.
Source of record: Baylor: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Another Ole Miss target transferring to Baylor School (Tenn.)”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Every Blue-Chip Baylor Football Recruit Ready to Make a Big Impact This Season”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Watch: Sights and Sounds from Baylor Football's First Day of Fall Camp”
SicEm365 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Presser: Porter, Redding & Thornton Answer Questions as Baylor F” — the real counter.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
“Presser: Porter, Redding & Thornton Answer Questions as Baylor Football's Fall Camp Begins”
SicEm365 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Presser: Dave Aranda Answers Questions as Baylor Football Starts Preseason Practice”
SicEm365 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
💬The boards48% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (49%).›
This event was in 185 of 382 board posts (48%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"As the 2026 college football season approaches, Baylor stands at a defining crossroads under head coach Dave Aranda."
Sic'em 365 ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I'm trying to learn as much as I can about Baylor University's new hybrid PA program in Waco from people who have firsthand experience. If you're a current student, ac"
r/baylor ~ fan take
Board health this week (149 posts): 19% positive · 60% neutral · 21% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Baylor · Transfer portal Confidence
Baylor's top-13 portal class: the window closed in their favor. The snaps decide who actually matters.
Baylor signed a top-13 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by DJ Lagway (QB) from Florida and Devon Jordan (CB) from Oklahoma. It is program's highest-ranked portal class on record. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers2 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 10% volume · negative overall
Developing4 new this week
yesterdayWin total: 6 → 6.5 (▲0.5)
yesterdayLagway, Wheeler Headline 2026 Single-Digit Selections, Plus Updated Heights, Weights — SicEm365
yesterdayAnother Ole Miss target transferring to Baylor School (Tenn.) — On3
2 days agoWhich Players From the Transfer Portal Can Make an Instant Impact for Baylor Football? — Yahoo Sports
2 weeks agoWalker sues NCAA over eligibility — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
DJ Lagway QB · Florida
“Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway named to Maxwell Award Watch List - Waco Tribune-Herald” — news · 2026-08-03
Devon Jordan CB · Oklahoma
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Baylor's highest-ranked portal class on record arrives as Dave Aranda confronts a 5-7 losing season, with QB DJ Lagway and CB Devon Jordan addressing gaps in a program rooted in faith and defensive identity.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Baylor signed a top-13 transfer-portal class — 31 additions headlined by DJ Lagway (QB) from Florida and Devon Jordan (CB) from Oklahoma — program's highest-ranked portal class on record.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“NCAA Lawsuit: Judge denies injunction for Baylor football transf” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“NCAA Lawsuit: Judge denies injunction for Baylor football transfer seeking additional year of eligibility”
KWTX · 2026-07-29 · read ↗
📣Believers2 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“Another Ole Miss target transferring to Baylor School (Tenn.)”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Lagway, Wheeler Headline 2026 Single-Digit Selections, Plus Updated Heights, Weights”
SicEm365 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Which Players From the Transfer Portal Can Make an Instant Impact for Baylor Football?”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“New Baylor Quarterback DJ Lagway Struggles with Accuracy” — the real counter.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
“New Baylor Quarterback DJ Lagway Struggles with Accuracy”
First Round Mock · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
💬The boards10% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (49%).›
This event was in 38 of 382 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"SicEm365 Lead Recruiting Analyst and Co-Editor Grayson Grundhoefer provides insider notes from the Bears opening practice of Fall Camp."
Sic'em 365 ~ fan take
"Baylor football has released the updated heights and weights for the players who will wear single-digit jersey numbers this fall."
Sic'em 365 ~ fan take
Board health this week (149 posts): 19% positive · 60% neutral · 21% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak L3Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Auburn · neutral site
Season line6.5 winsover +150
StrongPass-first, spreadSoft
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Texas Tech
Mixed-3
Baylor-Texas Tech
TCU
Mixed+2
Revivalry
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
17
TX · 10MS · 2CA · 1LA · 1OK · 1SC · 1UT · 1
TX leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Baylor Defeats SMU 48-45 (2OT)
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats Baylor 42-36
[Postgame Thread] Baylor Defeats UCF 30-3
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
10 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 4 ESPN, 2 cable, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 5 noon, 2 afternoon, 3 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 14% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
2 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves; 2 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 20% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
9 interceptions of 45 disrupted passes (36 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 72 penalties committed vs. 75 drawn on opponents, a 34-yard edge.
737 penalty yards committed vs. 771 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Baylor
53
Δ -16.0 vs last wk
147
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Sic 'em Bears"
— Baylor fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
CCampus paper
SSic'em 365
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Baylor fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards+0.10
Bettors+0.08
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
251 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readBaylor fans are split right down the middle, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 149 posts from Baylor fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 47% believers, 53% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
Season storylines
Week 2
“Offense looks amazing. Most teams would kill for Smothers and Bailey alone. I’m buying 2026 CJ Bailey Heisman stock”— r/CFB
Week 8
“I think this game may finally be the one that pushes even the biggest Aranda supporters over the edge”— r/CFB
Week 5
“DAVE ARANDA IS A DEFENSIVE SPECIAL TEAMS GURU!! BEARS WIN BEARS WIN BEARS WIN”— r/CFB
Week 4
“I miss the days of optimism by a team. Seeing OSU having fun and all of us Baylor fans are just over this shit”— r/CFB
Week 6
“So TCU is sandbagging and about to have their best game of the season next week aren’t they”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via Sic'em 365
- Pivotal Season On Deck for Baylor: Try SicEm365 Premium for $5.00
- Watch: Sights and Sounds from Baylor Football's First Day of Fall Camp
- Dave Aranda Says He's 'Having Fun' Again as Baylor Football Opens Fall Camp
- Presser: Porter, Redding & Thornton Answer Questions as Baylor Football's Fall Camp Begins
- Presser: Dave Aranda Answers Questions as Baylor Football Starts Preseason Practice
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial4 posts
Diehard fan boards14 posts
The broader fanbase4 posts
News & campus coverage15 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Baylor fans this offseason 36% of posts bring up another team#9 of 43 saltiest · mostly about Texas
Fanbase Health Index · Baylor · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Baylor · high confidenceGrowing (57)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)49
Volume — 651 effective signal-N86
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
209 posts and articles vs the field · 2026 season
Word of the Weektop important×94.5wk 1
lagway
×378.5 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
lagway×378.5n=26
aranda×287.7n=24
dave×85.6n=21
dave aranda×611.4n=21
bears×67.9n=13
coach dave×349.4n=12
grayson×407.6n=12
Characteristic — 3–10×
media×6.9n=31
media days×9.8n=20
notes×22.1n=10
“Insider Notes: Buzz Builds Around DJ Lagway, Baylor’s New-Look Defense and More The latest batch of Insider Notes.”
board/Baylor University Football · fan post, verbatim
Fans using LAGWAY (8 examples)
Lagway, a former five-star coming home from Florida (his dad played at Baylor). So the
'We Win as a Team': How Aranda is Trying to Avoid a Savior Narrative with DJ Lagway
DJ Lagway isn’t your typical transfer. The Baylor legacy QB has a combination of attributes
Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway made one thing clear at Big 12 Media Days: he's done talking and ready to play football.
Baylor QB DJ Lagway and TE Matthew Klopfenstein meet with the media for their "breakout session" at
Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway spoke with Grayson Grundhoefer at Big 12 Media Days to dive into all the major storylines
DJ Lagway might be the best Quarterback ever
Baylor will bring players Michael Allen, Kyler Jordan, Matthew Klopsenstein, DJ Lagway, Kyland Reed and Jamaal Whyce Jr., along with head coach Dave Aranda to Frisco on
Your Vocabulary Clustercamp / fall camp / fall
campfall campfall
with 19 other fanbasesKey stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#30 / 138 · 79th pct31.1
Pts allowed/game#121 / 138 · 13th pct32.6
Total yards/gm#38 / 136 · 73rd pct451.2
Rush yards/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct141.6
Pass yards/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct309.6
Yards allowed/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct391.8
Rush yds allowed/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct197.3
Sacks#132 / 136 · 4th pct12
Interceptions#68 / 136 · 51st pct9
3rd-down conv#89 / 136 · 35th pct37.8%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5414451.2/gm5.89/play#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp4702391.8/gm5.71/play#72 / 136 · 48th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush yards
Team1699141.6/gm1.85/play#90 / 136 · 35th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp2368197.3/gm2.87/play#117 / 136 · 15th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Rush carries
Team40934.1/gm#98 / 136 · 29th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp48040.0/gm#99 / 136 · 28th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Rush TDs
Team121.0/gm#111 / 136 · 19th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp302.5/gm#126 / 136 · 8th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Net pass yards
Team3715309.6/gm4.04/play#17 / 136 · 88th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp2334194.5/gm2.83/play#19 / 136 · 87th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Pass attempts
Team51042.5/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp34428.7/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Completions
Team30925.8/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp21417.8/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass TDs
Team312.6/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp171.4/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Passer rating
Team138.3138.3#56 / 136 · 60th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp128.5128.5#56 / 136 · 60th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team121.0/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp90.8/gm#54 / 136 · 61st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Sacks (def)
Team121.0/gm#132 / 136 · 4th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp221.8/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Tackles for loss
Team484.0/gm#127 / 136 · 7th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp625.2/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
First downs
Team29724.8/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp26722.2/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down conv
Team655.4/gm#82 / 136 · 40th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp655.4/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
3rd-down att
Team17214.3/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp15913.2/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conv
Team262.2/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp121.0/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down att
Team494.1/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp191.6/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Time of possession
Team351:0429:15/gm#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp368:5630:45/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#46 / 135 · 67th pct18/22 (81.8%)
Extra points37/37
Punting#7 / 136 · 96th pct46.9 avg · 27 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team242.0/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp110.9/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team121.0/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp20.2/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 11 · 73rd pct
Opp20.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#9 / 11 · 27th pct
INT return yards
Team1089.0/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp17614.7/gm#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team14111.8/gm#62 / 136 · 55th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp322.7/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team76763.9/gm#5 / 136 · 97th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp51242.7/gm#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Penalty yards
Team73761.4/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp77164.2/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Other
Fourth down go rate#4 / 138 · 98th pct#2 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.60.1/gm
Kick returns#4 / 136 · 98th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct342.8/gm
Red zone pass rate#9 / 154 · 95th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.50.0/gm
First down pass rate#12 / 215 · 95th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.60.0/gm
Recruiting rating#36 / 138 · 75th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct210.417.5/gm
H1 epa per play#41 / 162 · 75th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct0.30.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#49 / 136 · 65th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct121.0/gm
Punt returns#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct181.5/gm
H2 epa per play#55 / 142 · 62nd pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct0.20.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct756.2/gm
Interceptions (def)#68 / 136 · 51st pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct90.8/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#83 / 143 · 43rd pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct0.20.0/gm
Penalties#83 / 136 · 40th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct726.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct252.1/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#97 / 136 · 29th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct121.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#100 / 167 · 41st pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct0.20.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#128 / 136 · 7th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct20.2/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#131 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct121.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off37.8%#89 / 136 · 35th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def40.9%#91 / 136 · 34th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conversion
Off53.1%#75 / 136 · 46th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def63.2%#112 / 136 · 18th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Turnover margin#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct-1.08/gm
Sack rate (def)#132 / 136 · 4th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct3.5%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team534.4/gm#31 / 167 · 82nd pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp443.7/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Red zone score %
Team71.7%71.7%#122 / 167 · 28th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp68.2%68.2%#17 / 166 · 90th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team2.20.2/gm#61 / 167 · 64th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp2.00.2/gm#95 / 166 · 43rd pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Yards / drive
Team46.23.8/gm#24 / 167 · 86th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp42.83.6/gm#113 / 166 · 33rd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Plays / drive
Team7.00.6/gm#25 / 167 · 86th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp6.50.5/gm#78 / 166 · 54th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team6.9%6.9%#14 / 167 · 92nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp11.8%11.8%#108 / 166 · 36th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#138 / 145 · 6th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct-10.7%-10.7%
Havoc rate
Team12.6%12.6%#127 / 140 · 10th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct
Opp14.6%14.6%#61 / 140 · 57th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Standard-downs success
Team50.5%50.5%#45 / 154 · 71st pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct
Opp51.6%51.6%#131 / 172 · 24th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Passing-downs success
Team34.7%34.7%#35 / 153 · 78th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct
Opp28.7%28.7%#48 / 149 · 68th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.13.1#45 / 143 · 69th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct
Opp3.23.2#114 / 155 · 27th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Stuff rate
Team15.6%15.6%#28 / 143 · 81st pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Opp14.7%14.7%#129 / 155 · 17th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Power success rate
Team71.1%71.1%#64 / 137 · 54th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Opp88.1%88.1%#138 / 141 · 3rd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off60.6%#87 / 136 · 37th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Def62.2%#74 / 136 · 46th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.3#63 / 136 · 54th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def6.8#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / completion
Off12.0#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Def10.9#36 / 136 · 74th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / carry#86 / 136 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct4.2
Yards / play#47 / 136 · 66th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct5.89
Scoring margin#87 / 136 · 37th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct-1.5/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.28 EPA/play | 13 | 12 | 304 / 503 | 60.4 | 3681 #6 FBS | 7.3 | 31 #5 FBS | 12 | 137.5 | 66.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Passer· Money-downBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. saves his best for the money downs Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Sawyer Robertson's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.12 EPA/play | 30 | 12 | 154 | 788 | 5.1 | 6 | 41 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 16.3 | 13.6 | 5.6% (26/465) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class our readthe ball security is the one real worry — 2.33 fumbles per 100 touches (top-decile concern) | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.15 EPA/play | 22 | 12 | 104 | 469 | 4.5 | 1 | 49 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 21.4 | 9.7 | 3.2% (15/465) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.2 bottom 26th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.2 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caden Knighten's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.13 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 65 | 320 | 4.9 | 1 | 40 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 11.5 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.5 bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Turner's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.05 EPA/play | 27 | 5 | 26 | 104 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 6.9 | 4.2 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.46 EPA/play | 34 | 12 | 69 | 872 #47 FBS | 12.6 | 9 #17 FBS | 48 | 13.5 | 14.1 | 20.4% (95/465) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.0 bottom 47th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume69 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.43 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 50 | 694 | 13.9 | 6 #62 FBS | 42 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 18.1% (84/465) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.0 87th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume50 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 99th percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 82nd | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.53 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 53 | 621 | 11.7 | 0 | 41 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 17.0% (79/465) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume53 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ashtyn Hawkins's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.25 EPA/play | 19 | 12 | 44 | 591 | 13.4 | 5 | 64 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 15.5% (72/465) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.7 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kole Wilson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.84 EPA/play | 16 | 10 | 26 | 380 | 14.6 | 6 #62 FBS | 73 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 6.9% (32/465) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.4 52th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate23.1% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 3rd to 51st percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| +0.68 EPA/play | 83 | 5 | 9 | 85 | 9.4 | 1 | 22 | 7.1 | 6.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.30 EPA/play | 24 | 3 | 6 | 79 | 13.2 | 1 | 23 | 7.3 | 7.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.44 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 8 | 73 | 9.1 | 1 | 20 | 3.4 | 5.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 5 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Matthew Klopfenstein's full player page | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 11 | 33 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 53rd to 74th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 10 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight306 lb 79th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jackie Marshall's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 59 | 9 | 23 | 14 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.2% 52th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 17th to 55th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 93 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight309 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View D.K. Kalu's full player page | |||||||
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 11 | 12 | 99 | 62 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume99 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keaton Thomas's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 45 | 12 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.0% bottom 19th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyland Reed's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 32 | 12 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate16.7% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS LBs to the 66th | |||||||||
| Thumper | 50 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.3% bottom 28th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume19 bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 63rd percentile to the 7th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 40 | 9 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.9% 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume18 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyler Jordan's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 41 | 6 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.8 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaleb Burns's full player page | |||||||||
| 36 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 51 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 3 | 12 | 77 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume77 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devyn Bobby's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 38 | 11 | 53 | 2 | 3 #56 FBS | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 1st to 78th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Rover | 33 | 12 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.8% 59th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 11th to 65th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS Ss to the 16th | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 25 | 11 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.9% 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 77th percentile among FBS CBs, up from the 35th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Kendrick Simpkins's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS Ss to the 31st | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 27 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% bottom 40th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tevin Williams III's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 18 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 88th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caldra Williford's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 22 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.2% 68th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Reggie Bush II's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 8 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caden Jenkins's full player page | |||||||
| 21 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 96 | 11 | 18/22 | 81.8 | 37/37 | 91 | 54 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 94 | 12 | 27 | 1267 | 46.9 | 59 | 11 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.25 EPA/play | 19 | 12 | 30 | 705 | 23.5 | 0 | 53 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.46 EPA/play | 34 | 12 | 18 | 141 | 7.8 | 0 | 31 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Keaton Thomas
LB
99.0 tot (def)
2.
Sawyer Robertson
QB
3,681 yds (pass)
3.
Devyn Bobby
S
77.0 tot (def)
4.
Michael Trigg
TE
694 yds (rec)
5.
Jacob Redding
S
53.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
24
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Michael Trigg
TE
#3 of 156
Josh Cameron
WR
#51 of 485
Keaton Thomas
LB
#104 of 583
Jacob Redding
S
#122 of 544
Jackie Marshall
IDL
#87 of 330
Sawyer Robertson
QB
#39 of 146
+18 more
Baylor · 2025 schedule & results5-7Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 9 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #21 | #46 | +1 | Auburn | L 24–38 141 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #15 | #24 | +2.5 | @SMUTop 25 win | W 48–45 160 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #15 | #212 | -52 | Samford | W 42–7 145 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #22 | #23 | -1.5 | Arizona State | L 24–27 141 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #24 | #102 | -21.5 | @Oklahoma State | W 45–27 151 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #21 | #45 | -5 | Kansas State | W 35–34 144 | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #30 | #36 | +3.5 | @TCU | L 36–42 158 | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #31 | #36 | +3.5 | @Cincinnati | L 20–41 129 | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #36 | #57 | -3 | UCF | W 30–3 135 | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #27 | #12 | +9.5 | Utah | L 28–55 150 | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #37 | #51 | +6.5 | @Arizona | L 17–41 138 | 5-6 | 3-5 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #55 | #62 | -2.5 | Houston | L 24–31 151 | 5-7 | 3-6 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | Houston | L 24–31 | 421 | 2 | 23:34 | +0.054 | 54.1% | 87.6% | Best success rate |
| Nov 22 | @Arizona | L 17–41 | 343 | 3 | 32:48 | -0.052 | 38.3% | 117.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 16 | Utah | L 28–55 | 563 | 2 | 32:57 | +0.087 | 39.6% | 159.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | UCF | W 30–3 | 417 | 1 | 33:58 | +0.198 | 46.3% | 117.3% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @Cincinnati | L 20–41 | 266 | 2 | 24:54 | +0.244 | 40.0% | 130.0% | |
| Oct 18 | @TCU | L 36–42 | 439 | 4 | 31:48 | +0.075 | 40.9% | 117.5% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Kansas State | W 35–34 | 444 | 2 | 22:13 | +0.223 | 51.6% | 103.1% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Oklahoma State | W 45–27 | 612 | 1 | 31:52 | +0.512 | 49.3% | 150.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | Arizona State | L 24–27 | 357 | 3 | 23:36 | +0.262 | 45.9% | 143.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 13 | Samford | W 42–7 | 468 | 2 | 34:06 | +0.246 | 43.7% | 132.9% | Blowout win |
| Sep 6 | @SMU | W 48–45 | 601 | 2 | 32:36 | +0.255 | 51.1% | 115.6% | One-score win |
| Aug 30 | Auburn | L 24–38 | 483 | 0 | 26:42 | +0.303 | 38.0% | 188.3% | Most explosive |
| Season average (12 games) | 451 | 2.0 | +0.201 | 44.9% | 130.3% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Baylor fields a strong pass-first offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Baylor actually scores
69th percentile quality, 25th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Baylor's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 51st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 78th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Baylor hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
70th percentile success on standard downs, 77th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Baylor by half
1st-half offense ranks 75th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 62nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Baylor's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 59th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.30 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Baylor reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 14%) and success rate (top 27%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Baylor sits at the 29th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Baylor
Most Similar Programs · BaylorReads Like
App StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Baylor · 2018-present
Above-Average
60% home win rate vs 46% on the road. margin runs +7.8 better at home. McLane Stadium seats 45,140, averaging 94% full (42,585 attendance, 27 games reported).
Home31-20Away19-22
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Bryson Washington and Caden Knighten split the carries (144/247 vs 103/247) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Bryson WashingtonCaden Knighten
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Josh Cameron (WR) and Michael Trigg (TE) split the targets (94/175 vs 81/175) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Michael Trigg produces in bigger chunks.
Josh CameronMichael Trigg
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 4 claims, 1 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Baylor’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Jeff Grimes (2021–2023) → Jake Spavital (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Ron Roberts (2020–2022) → Matt Powledge (2023–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How Baylor’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Jake Spavital (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 48% → 2025: 60% · 11-pt range · #57 of 171 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 36% → 2025: 54% · 19-pt range · #34 of 171 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 61% → 2025: 65% · 3-pt range · #169 of 171 · less than most
Defense: Matt Powledge (2023–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 52% → 2025: 60% · 11-pt range · #74 of 189 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 39% → 2025: 54% · 19-pt range · #42 of 189 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2023: 50% → 2025: 65% · 15-pt range · #102 of 188 · a typical amount
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Baylor’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 100-play sample) — mid-pack, 76 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=100 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 67.0%
Venue texture
75°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 75 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Baylor's 2014–2025 record is 82-68. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
631-605-41
since 1903 · 120 seasons · .494 win rate
HOME
380-245-18
AWAY
219-341-23
NEUTRAL
32-19
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Sawyer Robertson led the nation in passing yards in 2025 and Baylor went 5-7. The defense allowed 31.9 points per game and sank a season that the offense could not bail out. Dave Aranda survived the vote of confidence — now he has to fix the half of the team that broke it.
Baylor's arc is unlike any program in the Big 12. The world's largest Baptist university spent decades as a Southwest Conference and then Big 12 also-ran, got its first Heisman with Robert Griffin III in 2011, built an offensive revolution under Art Briles, crashed to the bottom of the sport when that era ended in scandal, and then rebuilt itself on faith into a 2021 Big 12 champion under Dave Aranda — a 21-16 title game over Oklahoma State sealed at the goal line, followed by a 21-7 Sugar Bowl rout of Ole Miss. The full range of college football's highs and lows, compressed into one program on the banks of the Brazos River.
The 2025 slide reopened the question the 2021 title was supposed to answer. Aranda's defense, always the identity of his rebuild, ranked near the bottom of FBS at 31.9 points allowed per game. Robertson — a genuinely gifted quarterback — could not outscore a unit that could not stop anyone. Baylor went 5-7, missed a bowl for the first time since 2020, and the question of whether the Aranda program had topped out became audible. The program's public response: retain Aranda, cite stability, commit to the rebuild. That decision moved belief in the offseason — at minimum, it ended the tenure uncertainty and let a roster recruit around a known coach.
The 2026 season has one clear adjudicator: the defense. Robertson or his successor gives Baylor a passing attack that can compete in the Big 12. The McLane Stadium atmosphere, the faith-rooted culture, the Revivalry against TCU — those are real structural assets. What 2026 will answer is whether Aranda can return his side of the ball to the standard that made the 2021 run possible. If the defense approaches competence, Baylor is a bowl team. If it does not, the stability argument becomes harder to sustain.
How they play
Two fused identities: the Briles-era tempo passing offense — fast, spread, quarterback-driven, and still visible in the DNA of Aranda's attacks — and the culture-and-defense rebuild that Aranda actually built his 2021 title on. Robertson's 2025 season showed the offense is legitimate; the defensive identity is under reconstruction. McLane Stadium on the Brazos, live bear mascots, verse-reading pregames — Baylor's cultural footprint is specific and not transferable, and the fanbase's belief in Aranda is tied to a 2021 championship that the program can point to honestly.
Steady
Baylor 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.13 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Baylor
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7FBS sub-.500
Baylor: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
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Big 12 Standing · 2025
11th in the Big 12
Baylor is 11th of 16 in the Big 12 at 3-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Baylor
Coaching Era · BaylorDave Aranda
Dave Aranda has held the program for 7 seasons — the era is established.
Era Dave Aranda · 2020–presentPrev: Matt Rhule (2017)OC: Jake SpavitalPrev OC: Jeff Grimes (2021–2023)DC: Joe KlandermanPrev DC: Matt Powledge (2023–2025)
7
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Sic 'em Bears
since 1960s
The 'Sic 'em Bears!' chant is the program's defining linguistic identity. Used on social media (#SicEm), in alumni greetings, after every touchdown. Brief, aggressive, easily memed.
Live Bear Mascots
since 1914
Baylor maintains live black bear mascots (Joy and Lady currently) — the only Power-5 program with live bears at games. Conservation-program partnership ensures the bears are rescued, not bred for the role. The visual of live bears in cages at the stadium is uniquely Baylor.
Verse-Reading Pre-Game
since 2000s
Baylor as the world's largest Baptist university has a faith identity that shapes program culture — pre-game verse readings, post-game prayer circles, faith-based team-building. The Briles era leaned into it; the Aranda era continues it. Distinct from any P5 program's identity markers.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2011
RG3's Heisman
Robert Griffin III wins Baylor's first Heisman Trophy — the moment Waco arrived
The 2021 Big 12 title
A goal-line stand seals a 21-16 win over Oklahoma State for the championship, then a 21-7 Sugar Bowl rout of Ole Miss — the redemption complete
Moment of the Year · Baylor · 2025
Moment of the Year · Baylor · 2025Won 48-45 at SMU
Week 2 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2024): 4-4
Most recent: 2024 — loss 44-31 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
20242022202120192018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
9 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
9
picks · 0 R1
#37
Jalen Pitre
Safety · 2022 · Houston · #231/509 final season
#50
Tyquan Thornton
Wide Receiver · 2022 · New England · #44/468 final season
#79
JT Woods
Safety · 2022 · Los Angeles · #11/509 final season
#37 all-time · 19 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Baylor’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · Philip Montgomery2015–2016 · Kendal Briles2017–2019 · co-Glenn Thomas / co-Jeff Nixon2020 · Larry Fedora2021–2023 · Jeff Grimes2024–2025 (ongoing) · Jake Spavital
Defense2014–2025
2014–2016 · Phil Bennett2017–2019 · Phil Snow2020–2022 · Ron Roberts2023–2025 · Matt Powledge
Hired for 2026: Joe Klanderman — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 82% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the WR room but opened a hole at CB.
2 players drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Baylor signs higher-rated classes than its draft yield delivers.
r/cfb moments
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[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Baylor 26-20 (2OT)
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[Postgame Thread] Baylor Defeats SMU 48-45 (2OT)
1.6k
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats Baylor 30-28
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[Postgame Thread] Baylor Defeats UCF 36-35
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[Postgame Thread] Baylor Defeats BYU 38-24
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