Baylor beats Louisiana Tech 36-19

Team pages: Louisiana Tech · Baylor

Louisiana Tech1-219
Baylor2-136Final
Sat, Sep 19 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 41,343ESPNU

Baylor beat Louisiana Tech 36-19.

We had Baylor favored. It won.

Next: Louisiana Tech beat Army 31-29, Sat Oct 3

Next: Baylor beat Colorado 23-13, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Baylor an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Baylor was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Baylor never fell below 90%.

Louisiana Tech never had better than a 9% chance.

FinalBaylor 36-19 Louisiana TechBaylor wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorWon36-19Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorWon36-19Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorLowest 0%Lost19-36Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorLowest 0%Lost19-36Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Baylor’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Baylor -20.5), at 95% for Baylor (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Baylor’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:37Bennett 25-yd TD runBaylor goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:37 · Baylor 7, Louisiana Tech 0▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 95% to 97%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 12:08Pendergrass 1-yd TD runBaylor goes ahead 14-7Q2, 12:08 · Baylor 14, Louisiana Tech 7▲3%Baylor’s chance to win, 93% to 96%▲3%Baylor’s chance to win, 93% to 96%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 10:38Bennett 51-yd TD pass to Brown, blockedBaylor leads 20-7Q2, 10:38 · Baylor 20, Louisiana Tech 7▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:37Bennett sacked for a 1-yd lossfumblesQ2, 0:37 · Baylor 20, Louisiana Tech 720-7score after the play20-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 0:11Kukuk intercepted by Jordan at the Baylor 0Q2, 0:11 · Baylor 20, Louisiana Tech 7▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Baylor’s chance to win, 96% to 98%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 13:01Kukuk sacked for a 0-yd lossfumblesQ4, 13:01 · Baylor 29, Louisiana Tech 729-7score after the play29-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q4, 8:18Kukuk 19-yd TD pass to Finleycuts it to 29-13Q4, 8:18 · Baylor 29, Louisiana Tech 1329-13score after the play29-13score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 6:34Bennett 9-yd pass to LivingstonfumbledQ4, 6:34 · Baylor 29, Louisiana Tech 1329-13score after the play29-13score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 4:10Bennett 36-yd TD pass to McGowanBaylor leads 36-19Q4, 4:10 · Baylor 36, Louisiana Tech 1936-19score after the play36-19score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Baylor scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Louisiana Tech on 3 of its 12.

Baylor’s drives are teal, Louisiana Tech’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Baylor: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBaylor: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Louisiana Tech: Punt, from 83 yards out to 80PuntBaylor: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntBaylor: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 59DownsLouisiana Tech: Missed field goal, from 41 yards out to 16Missed FGBaylor: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 61FumbleLouisiana Tech: Interception, from 35 yards out to 20InterceptionBaylor: End of half, from 80 yards out to 81End of halfQ3Louisiana Tech: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 44DownsBaylor: Touchdown, from 56 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntBaylor: Punt, from 83 yards out to 59PuntLouisiana Tech: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 71DownsBaylor: Field goal, from 29 yards out to 6Field goalLouisiana Tech: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 6FumbleQ4Baylor: Punt, from 94 yards out to 94PuntLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownBaylor: Fumble, from 51 yards out to 48FumbleLouisiana Tech: Touchdown, from 47 yards out to 0TouchdownBaylor: Touchdown, from 47 yards out to 0TouchdownLouisiana Tech: Turned over on downs, from 84 yards out to 52DownsBaylor: End of game, from 48 yards out to 4End of game

What it cost

Baylor’s chance to make the playoff rose from 3% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Louisiana Tech · lost1% → ▼0%
Baylor · won3% → ▲6%3%▲ 6%

Win the conference

Louisiana Tech · lost6% → ▼5%6%▼ 5%
Baylor · won3% → ▲6%3%▲ 6%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Baylor 36, Louisiana Tech 19

Louisiana Tech covered +20.5 by 3.5. The total, 55, went over 50.5.

Louisiana TechBaylorTotal yardsLouisiana Tech 362Baylor 418362418Passing yardsLouisiana Tech 223Baylor 253223253Rushing yardsLouisiana Tech 139Baylor 165139165First downsLouisiana Tech 25Baylor 222522TurnoversLouisiana Tech 2Baylor 222Time of possessionLouisiana Tech 32:18Baylor 27:4232:1827:42
Team totalsLouisiana TechBaylor
Total yards362418
Passing25 of 44, 223 yds21 of 24, 253 yds
Rushing34 for 139 yds44 for 165 yds
First downs2522
Third down7 of 165 of 13
Fourth down1 of 41 of 2
Turnovers22
Penalties9 for 81 yds10 for 90 yds
Time of possession32:1827:42

Louisiana Tech leaders

  • Passing Trey Kukuk 25 of 44, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Trey Kukuk 11 for 75 yds; Jaden Miller 11 for 34 yds
  • Receiving Eli Finley 8 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Mickens 4 for 63 yds

Baylor leaders

  • Passing Nate Bennett 21 of 24, 253 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Ryelan Morris 4 for 55 yds; Dawson Pendergrass 16 for 46 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jayden McGowan 2 for 79 yds, 2 TD; Louis Brown 2 for 79 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

95° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at McLane Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Baylor favoredLouisiana Tech favored100%Win chanceBaylorRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F90°105°feels like 96°air 95°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Baylor favoredLouisiana Tech favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F90°105°feels like 96°air 95°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left3:07 p.m.
Louisiana Tech 0, Baylor 0 · Baylor 95% to win
no rain · 95°
Pendergrass 8-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Waco airport, 6.0 miles away, and Waco airport, 7.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Louisiana Tech · 1-1

Rated 88th in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-45 @ LSUTop 25 #24 of 668

lost by 31 as a 34.5-point underdog

Louisiana Tech lost 14-45 at LSU. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 80-6 vs Northwestern State #259 of 668

won by 74 as a 44.5-point favorite

Louisiana Tech won 80-6 vs Northwestern State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Baylor · 1-1

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 36th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M #108 of 668

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

Baylor won 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 16-17 @ Auburn #70 of 668

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Baylor lost 16-17 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 35%.

Week by week

Baylor

Wk 1: L 16-17 at Auburn▼1AuburnWk 2: W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M▲41Prairie View A&M
  • Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17
  • Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3

Louisiana Tech

Wk 1: W 80-6 vs Northwestern State▲74Northwestern StateWk 2: L 14-45 at LSU▼31LSU
  • Wk 1Wvs Northwestern State80-6
  • Wk 2Lat LSU14-45

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 5.9 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

72-3Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2BaylorLouisiana Tech

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Louisiana Tech’s rushing EPA against Baylor, 79 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Louisiana Tech’s rushing EPA against Baylor’s defense

    79 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 19th percentile · Baylor defense, 98th

  2. Louisiana Tech’s success rate against Baylor’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Louisiana Tech offense, 21st percentile · Baylor defense, 95th

  3. Baylor’s explosive plays against Louisiana Tech’s defense

    66 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Baylor offense, 92nd percentile · Louisiana Tech defense, 26th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Louisiana TechBaylor
EPA/play, offense
Louisiana Tech · 39Baylor · 39
EPA/play, defense
Louisiana Tech · 77Baylor · 94
Success rate, offense
Louisiana Tech · 21Baylor · 10
Success rate, defense
Louisiana Tech · 76Baylor · 95
Explosive-play rate, offense
Louisiana Tech · 81Baylor · 92
Explosive-play rate, defense
Louisiana Tech · 26Baylor · 42
Rush EPA, offense
Louisiana Tech · 19Baylor · 30
Rush EPA, defense
Louisiana Tech · 62Baylor · 98
Pass EPA, offense
Louisiana Tech · 70Baylor · 41
Pass EPA, defense
Louisiana Tech · 82Baylor · 87

The series

Baylor leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 1981 · Baylor has won the last 2

Baylor wonLouisiana Tech won1981: Baylor by 71986: Baylor by 311987: Baylor by 101992: Louisiana Tech by 11994: Baylor by 411996: Baylor by 819811996
  • 1996Baylor 24-16
  • 1994Baylor 44-3
  • 1992Louisiana Tech 10-9
  • 1987Baylor 13-3
  • 1986Baylor 38-7

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Louisiana Tech fans are in a better mood than Baylor fans (58th vs 31st among FBS fanbases), even with Baylor favored.

  • Model · 82%
  • Line · 95%
  • Baylor fans · 31st
  • Louisiana Tech fans · 58th

Baylor favored by 20.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Baylor by 20.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Baylor.

opened −17.5now −20.5

The total fell 5 points.

opened 55.5now 50.5

Spread: −17.5 → −20.5 · Total: 55.5 → 50.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Baylor has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±3.9), home against road — 5th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 20-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 270 miles to get here.

Where next