Auburn5-7AP #22

Auburn's faithful can't agree on where this is headed.

belief cooled ↓ 16.3vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
48/100 · 381 mentions
~ our read
Grounding
backed by facts
12% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 24 pts
~ our read
The model
#34
CFB Zeitgeist · +6.1
✓ measured
Explore all 12 corners of the fanbase ↓
Hope-Doping·Offseason

Auburn is the program that lives in the same state, recruits the same ground, and refuses the role the rivalry tries to assign it — now on its fourth coach in a decade, betting an offense-minded outsider can finally cash the resources in.

AP Top 25#22 AP

Auburn fans know exactly what the ledger says across the state and refuse to wear the role it implies; the chip is that the same recruiting ground and the same league bid go to two programs, and one o…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - Auburn

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production22%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#13 nationally247 composite 891.8
Portal Additions38Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses39Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss5NFL Draft departures (5)
Recruiting Reload#31Development class
WRin 6 - Jeremiah Koger3.90out 7 - Cam Coleman5.00Downgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 6 - Joseph Simmons3.80out 5 - Xavier Chaplin4.25Upgrade
CBin 4 - Andre Jordan Jr.3.70out 5 - Jay Crawford4.38Downgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 5 - Jonathan Echols3.70out 2 - Preston Howard3.60Need Filled
current room: 250 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Da'Shawn Womack4.25out 4 - Amaris Williams4.50Starter Risk
current room: 262 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 3 - Byrum Brown4.50out 3 - Deuce Knight4.50Even
current room: 219 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
2023 season2022 season2021 seasonW 73-3 vs Alabama A&M (Wk 1)L 14-21 vs California (Wk 2)W 45-19 vs New Mexico (Wk 3)L 14-24 vs Arkansas (Wk 4)L 21-27 vs Oklahoma (Wk 5)L 13-31 vs Georgia (Wk 6)L 17-21 vs Missouri (Wk 8)W 24-10 vs Kentucky (Wk 9)L 7-17 vs Vanderbilt (Wk 10)W 48-14 vs UL Monroe (Wk 12)W 43-41 vs Texas A&M (Wk 13)L 14-28 vs Alabama (Wk 14)HIGHLOW
2024 season2022 season2021 seasonW 59-14 vs Massachusetts (Wk 1)W 14-10 vs California (Wk 2)W 45-13 vs Samford (Wk 3)L 10-27 vs Texas A&M (Wk 4)L 20-27 vs Georgia (Wk 5)L 18-48 vs LSU (Wk 7)L 21-28 vs Ole Miss (Wk 8)W 27-13 vs Mississippi State (Wk 9)W 31-15 vs Vanderbilt (Wk 10)W 48-10 vs Arkansas (Wk 11)L 10-31 vs New Mexico State (Wk 12)L 24-27 vs Alabama (Wk 13)L 13-31 vs Maryland (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2024 season2023 season2021 seasonW 42-16 vs Mercer (Wk 1)W 24-16 vs San José State (Wk 2)L 12-41 vs Penn State (Wk 3)W 17-14 vs Missouri (Wk 4)L 17-21 vs LSU (Wk 5)L 10-42 vs Georgia (Wk 6)L 34-48 vs Ole Miss (Wk 7)L 27-41 vs Arkansas (Wk 9)L 33-39 vs Mississippi State (Wk 10)W 13-10 vs Texas A&M (Wk 11)W 41-17 vs Western Kentucky (Wk 12)L 27-49 vs Alabama (Wk 13)HIGHLOW
2024 season2023 season2022 seasonW 60-10 vs Akron (Wk 1)W 62-0 vs Alabama State (Wk 2)L 20-28 vs Penn State (Wk 3)W 34-24 vs Georgia State (Wk 4)W 24-19 vs LSU (Wk 5)L 10-34 vs Georgia (Wk 6)W 38-23 vs Arkansas (Wk 7)W 31-20 vs Ole Miss (Wk 9)L 3-20 vs Texas A&M (Wk 10)L 34-43 vs Mississippi State (Wk 11)L 17-21 vs South Carolina (Wk 12)L 22-24 vs Alabama (Wk 13)L 13-17 vs Houston (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2019 offseasonWk 33Wk 4472th27th
2024 season · 5W-7L2023 season · 6W-7L2022 season · 5W-7L2021 season · 6W-7L2020 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons

Approaching

30 days

until kickoff · vs Baylor · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC

The experience

Auburn is the program the SEC West cannot schedule around.

Offense: SolidTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Elite
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Auburn's 2026 season hinges on roster turnover and recruiting class performance

With a returning player percentage of 22% and a development-class recruiting effort ranked #31, Auburn faces a critical rebuild.

  • Roster reloadAuburn has 5 NFL Draft departures and a transfer portal churn of 38 incoming and 39 outgoing players.
  • RecruitingThe team's recruiting score of 225.99 ranks #31 nationally, indicating a developmental class.
  • ScheduleAuburn's base scenario projects a 9-4 record with 4 losses and a bowl game appearance.
Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

Jordan-Hare is waiting. The week after Alabama is where the year is measured.

Auburn · the story right now 6 storylines developing

What Auburn's recruiting class is really about

the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?

recruitingthis cycle~readnew

Deuce Knight (#28 nationally) arrives at Auburn with just 22% production returning and five NFL exits — Freeze's top-8 class is a direct response to Alabama's top-3 haul.

what happenedAuburn signed a top-8 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's best recruiting class in at least five years
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Hugh Freeze inherits a 5-7 losing record at Auburn, where the SEC West cannot schedule around the program, raising questions about his ability to restore consistency in his third season.

what happenedAuburn: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Hugh Freeze inherits a 5-7 losing record at Auburn, where the SEC West cannot schedule around the program, as coordinator changes reshape units and confidence builds slowly.

what happenedAuburn: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew

Golesh inherits a 5-7 roster and a 22% production return at Auburn, where the program's third head coach in five years must prove the SEC West's scheduling dilemma isn't a recurring crisis.

what happenedAlex Golesh took over as Auburn's head coach, replacing Hugh Freeze. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-01-23~readnew

Hugh Freeze's top-3 SEC portal class diagnoses Auburn's QB and pass-rush problems with Brown and Womack, but 22% production returning means this is a reset.

what happenedAuburn signed a top-4 transfer-portal class — 38 additions headlined by Byrum Brown (QB) from South Florida and Tristan Ti'a (QB) from Oregon State. ✓ fact
the contexta top-3 portal class in the SEC this cycle
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Perry Thompson is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedAuburn's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downAuburn's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

The Offseason Ledger · Auburn

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Auburn-Baylor NIL deal announced

    Freeze is locking in NIL infrastructure while Alabama flips his own in-state targets — the Baylor partnership is Auburn answering a retention problem, not just a recruiting one.

    Jul 15Official
  2. News

    Auburn provides injury report ahead of fall camp

    Camp injury report lands right as Golesh makes his Auburn debut and the EDGE room already has pressure — any depth hit there matters more than usual with five NFL exits still on the books.

    Jul 21Reported
  3. Recruiting

    Karlos May commits to Big Ten

    Five NFL exits plus a four-star DL lost to Ohio State — May heading to the Big Ten is another chip off a class that needed every piece to hold together under real EDGE pressure.

    Jul 18Official
  4. Recruiting

    James Branch commits to Auburn

    Five draft departures and a raw EDGE room — Branch is Freeze's attempt to close the gap before fall camp exposes it in SEC play.

    Jul 11Reported
  5. Recruiting

    Davion Jones commits to South Carolina

    Five draft exits and a top-8 class still couldn't close the EDGE gap — Jones walking out the door to Columbia is the kind of depth bleed that turns recruiting momentum into a math problem real fast.

  6. Recruiting

    Tu’upo commits to Texas over Auburn

    Freeze lands a top-8 class and a top-7 portal haul, but EDGE pressure was already thin after five draft exits — Tu'upo staying home in Texas stings more than the rankings suggest.

    Jun 26Reported

Transfer portal snapshot

-3.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -4.1 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
TE
+10.6
need not filled
LB
-7.4
starter risk
WR
-6.5
CB
-4.8
EDGE
-4.5
starter risk
RB
+4.5
S
-4.5
IOL
+4.4
DL
+3.8
OT
+3.6
K
-3.3
low confidence
QB
+0.0

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Jaquez Wilkes
LB · Wadley, AL
#116 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical linebacker — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Brady Marchese
WR · Cartersville, GA
#142 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Shadarius Toodle
LB · Mobile, AL
#282 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet

Fan confidence lower than any point since 2024

16th percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
16th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
Market 25pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#19 in field+6600
SEC title#11 in market+4000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

Auburn · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Auburn · Recruiting Confidence

Auburn signed the top-8 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.

Auburn signed a top-8 recruiting class. It is the program's best recruiting class in at least five years. A top-8 class is a program-level investment. Development timelines decide the return. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers19 bull takes
💬 fans: 6% volume · negative overall
Developing3 new this week
todayLoaded 2028 class in state of Arizona has national appeal — On3
2 days agoFour-star DL Marquis Evans is enjoying life as an Auburn commit, although two other programs remain in contact — 247Sports
2 days agoA stumble against Auburn could cost Georgia its biggest 2028 recruiting target — flywareagle.com
2 weeks agoAuburn provides injury report ahead of fall camp — Reported
2 weeks agoKarlos May commits to Big Ten — Official
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Alex Golesh Head coach
“Auburn 2027 Class Breakdown: Alex Golesh pushing for Top-10 class in first cycle” — On3 · 2026-07-27
Brylan Oduor Recruit
“Auburn football commitment Brylan Oduor on NFL players he models his game after” — The Tennessean · 2026-07-28
Byrum Brown QB
“Classifying starting quarterbacks on Auburn's schedule, Byrum Brown” — On3 · 2026-07-25
Holding Strong
“Auburn Tigers' 2027 Class Holding Strong in Top-10 ESPN Rankings” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-31
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Deuce Knight (#28 nationally) arrives at Auburn with just 22% production returning and five NFL exits — Freeze's top-8 class is a direct response to Alabama's top-3 haul.
Source of record: Auburn signed a top-8 recruiting class — the program's best recruiting class in at least five years.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
📣Believers19 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.

“Loaded 2028 class in state of Arizona has national appeal”
On3 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Four-star DL Marquis Evans is enjoying life as an Auburn commit, although two other programs remain in contact”
247Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“A stumble against Auburn could cost Georgia its biggest 2028 recruiting target”
flywareagle.com · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Georgia analyst brutally trolls Auburn over Jayden Wade recruitm” — the real counter.

The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.

“Georgia analyst brutally trolls Auburn over Jayden Wade recruitment”
Fly War Eagle · 2026-08-02 · read ↗
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (71%).

This event was in 43 of 666 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"auburnwire.usatoday.com Player profile: Nate Johnson eager to bounce back at Auburn Taylor Jones ~3 minutes July 31, 2026, 12:22 p.m. ET The 2026 football season for the Auburn Tig"
AUFamily ~ fan take
"al.com Former Auburn star, Alabama Sports Hall of Famer, dead at 85 Creg Stephenson | cstephenson.com 3–4 minutes Auburn Football Published: Jul. 28, 2026, 6:17 p.m. Former Auburn"
AUFamily ~ fan take

Board health this week (393 posts): 12% positive · 50% neutral · 38% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Following now · Auburn · Developing Confidence

Auburn: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

Auburn: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers4 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 28% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~1 month old
2 weeks agoAuburn provides injury report ahead of fall camp — Reported
2 weeks agoKarlos May commits to Big Ten — Official
3 weeks agoAuburn-Baylor NIL deal announced — Official
3 weeks agoJames Branch commits to Auburn — Reported
4 weeks agoDavion Jones commits to South Carolina — Reported
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Hugh Freeze inherits a 5-7 losing record at Auburn, where the SEC West cannot schedule around the program, raising questions about his ability to restore consistency in his third season.
Source of record: Auburn: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards loud
🎪The circus“Auburn players on staying at hotel during preseason camp: ‘No di” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“Auburn players on staying at hotel during preseason camp: ‘No distractions’”
AL.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
📣Believers4 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“What We're Hearing: Buzz from Day 1 of Auburn fall camp”
247Sports · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“De'Marcus Riddick's confidence returning could be a major boost for Auburn's defense”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Auburn's Xavier Atkins is unbothered by preseason hype surrounding him”
Auburn Wire · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Auburn needs Jourdin Crawford, Malik Autry to take the next step” — the real counter.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Auburn needs Jourdin Crawford, Malik Autry to take the next step on the defensive line”
On3 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
💬The boards28% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (71%).

This event was in 186 of 666 board posts (28%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"The last 2 Auburn QBs to run for 1000 yds in a season won an SEC Championship. Not saying that is happening for Auburn by any means, but smash mouth football will be returning. Now"
r/wde ~ fan take
"247sports.com With Buster sidelined Auburn OL competition ramps up as Tigers get ready for camp Jason Caldwell 24–31 minutes Auburn's offensive line will be center stage in camp as"
AUFamily ~ fan take

Board health this week (393 posts): 12% positive · 50% neutral · 38% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast

Opens Sep 5

vs Baylor · neutral site

Season line6.5 winsover -120
SolidMethodical, ball-controlElite

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

Alabama
Mixed
+0
Iron Bowl
Face-off →
Georgia
Uneasy
-5
Deep South's Oldest Rivalry

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

20
AL · 6FL · 5GA · 4MS · 2MD · 1PA · 1TN · 1

AL leads the 2026 class with 6 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

93 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Auburn Defeats Mercer 62-17
93 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 3 drafted so far, 68% never transferred. A
See the class →
National spotlight

11 games with TV coverage: 4 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 5 conference network, 1 streaming

Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 3 afternoon, 6 primetime

Fumble luck

Recovering 86% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.

6 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 11 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

Converting 26% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.

11 interceptions of 43 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 11 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

Losing the penalty battle: 93 penalties committed vs. 69 drawn on opponents, a 134-yard deficit.

764 penalty yards committed vs. 630 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

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