Alex Golesh

Head coach · Auburn
1st season · since 2026 · South Florida before

At Auburn4-4since 2026 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 98th of 132 jobsLast gameL 15-45at Ole Miss · Oct 31Nextvs ArkansasSat Nov 7 · 12:45 pm ET · SEC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianSouth FloridaAuburnUCFUCFPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelSouth Florida when he took over: 20.0 (Regional Program II), its final 2022 readingtook overSouth Florida, 2023: 7-6, Regional Program IISouth Florida, 2023: 7-6, Regional Program II20237-6South Florida, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program II20247-6South Florida, 2025: 9-3, National Program IIISouth Florida, 2025: 9-3, National Program III20259-3+7.2Auburn when he took over: 49.1 (Power Program II), its final 2025 readingtook overAuburn, 2026: 4-4, Power Program IIAuburn, 2026: 4-4, Power Program II20264-4-0.2best: 2026gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-0

South Florida2023Boca Raton BowlW 45-02024Hawaii BowlW 41-39

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 15-45 at Ole Miss Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 lost 2 straight
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Arkansas Sat Nov 7
  • Stature25th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 1% → 0.4% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Arkansas

Sat Nov 7, 12:45 pm ET SEC Network · Arkansas is 3-5 · Golesh vs. Ryan Silverfield: 0-2 (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · Auburn’s chance to win: 79% (the site’s model)

His week

Buckle up and be ready”

Rewinding what Alex Golesh said in Auburn’s Monday press conference

AL.com headline · Mon Nov 2

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 69th of 138 per play. Defense: 77th.

Offense, per play69thOffense, starting field position122ndDefense, per play77thDefense, big plays allowed36thWorstBest
Offense, per play69th of 138Offense, starting field position122nd of 138Defense, per play77th of 138Defense, big plays allowed36th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Auburn. The other two rows are where Auburn stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Arkansas (3-5)SEC Network79%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Mississippi State (4-4)61%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Samford (3-6)SECN+97%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Alabama (6-2)11%

Percent: Auburn’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Auburn stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

16th22nd28thPreseason22ndBaylor W 17-16Baylor W 17-16W 17-16Baylor23rdSouthern Miss W 43-8Southern Miss W 43-8W 43-8Southern Miss22ndFlorida L 39-44Florida L 39-44L 39-44Florida22ndVanderbilt W 21-15Vanderbilt W 21-15W 21-15Vanderbilt23rdTennessee L 14-24Tennessee L 14-24L 14-24Tennessee23rdGeorgia W 27-24Georgia W 27-24W 27-24Georgia23rdLSU L 17-38LSU L 17-38L 17-38LSU23rdOle Miss L 15-45Ole Miss L 15-45L 15-45Ole Miss22nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 15-45 at Ole Miss34 headlines · 21st of 138Alex Golesh Has an Opportunity to Deliver Another Auburn Upset Against Ole Miss Yahoo Sports“We certainly tried”Alex Golesh comments on poor run game vs. Ole Miss, Oct 31
  2. Oct 19–25L 17-38 vs. LSU35 headlines · 10th of 138Alex Golesh explains how Byrum Brown has evolved since joining Auburn, SEC Saturday Down South“Really bad performance”Rewinding everything Alex Golesh said following Auburn’s loss to LSU, Oct 24
  3. Oct 12–18W 27-24 at Georgia25 headlines · 17th of 138How Auburn Football Took Down No. 1 Georgia For The Biggest Win of Alex Golesh's Career Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11No game19 headlines · 22nd of 138Alex Golesh Talks Auburn Offensive Line Struggles: 'I was hoping we would be further ahead' Yahoo Sports“I was hoping we would be further ahead”Alex Golesh Talks Auburn Offensive Line Struggles, Oct 7
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-24 at Tennessee48 headlines · 7th of 138Alex Golesh Admits Biggest Reason for Week 5 Loss as Tennessee RB Sends Blunt Revenge Message: “Personal for Me” Yahoo Sports“Personal for Me”Alex Golesh Admits Biggest Reason for Week 5 Loss as Tennessee RB Sends Blunt Revenge Message, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 21-15 vs. Vanderbilt28 headlines · 16th of 138Auburn holds off Vanderbilt 21-15 for Alex Golesh's first SEC win CBS Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Auburn’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool98th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 21
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

2%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled80th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Auburn
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 4-4, outscored by 2.6 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.