Arkansas at Auburn
Auburn (4‑4) hosts Arkansas (3‑5). The market has Auburn favored by 10.5. The model gives Auburn a 69% shot. Arkansas’s offense is at the 8th percentile on explosive plays; Auburn’s defense is at the 75th.
How they got here
Last three games
Arkansas · 3-5
Rated 145th in our preseason ratings, 110th now, up 35 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 10-point win over Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Auburn · 4-4
Rated 71st in our preseason ratings, 54th now, up 17 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Georgia as a 19.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Arkansas’s explosive plays against Auburn, 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arkansas’s explosive plays against Auburn’s defense
Arkansas offense, 8th percentile · Auburn defense, 75th
Auburn’s rushing EPA against Arkansas’s defense
Auburn offense, 64th percentile · Arkansas defense, 11th
Arkansas’s EPA/play against Auburn’s defense
Arkansas offense, 16th percentile · Auburn defense, 45th
What’s at stake
Arkansas
- Arkansas needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 10% to get there with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Arkansas is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
Auburn
- Auburn needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 99% to get there with a win here, 56% with a loss.
- Auburn is still shaking off a 30-point loss.
The series
Auburn leads the series 21-13-1
35 meetings since 1984 · Auburn won the last meeting
- 2025Auburn 33-24
- 2024Arkansas 24-14
- 2023Auburn 48-10
- 2022Arkansas 41-27
- 2021Auburn 38-23
Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Auburn is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Arkansas
The chip · vs big brotherHog fans say the bluebloods of the SEC have spent thirty years treating Arkansas as a guaranteed win on the schedule — the league's outsider with no neighbor to lean on — and they call the Hogs every week, daring anyone to keep overlooking the whole state's team.
What this game touches
The 2-10 collapse and Pittman's firing. In 2025 the Razorbacks went 2-10, fired the beloved Sam Pittman after a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame, lost out the rest of the way under interim Bobby Petrino, and turned the program over to Ryan Silverfield — the latest reset in a search for an SEC ceiling that keeps slipping away.
Auburn
The chip · vs big brotherAuburn fans know exactly what the ledger says across the state and refuse to wear the role it implies; the chip is that the same recruiting ground and the same league bid go to two programs, and one of them is told to be grateful for the scraps. War Eagle is said with an edge for a reason.
What this game touches
The Freeze firing and the reset under it. Hugh Freeze was let go in November 2025 at 15-19 — fired mid-season after a 4-5 start and an SEC record that never matched the recruiting — the third straight regime to leave Auburn searching, and proof the resources still aren't translating into Saturdays.
Best players
Arkansas
- Ja'Quavion Smith (LB) · 55 tackles
- Ben Bogle (LB) · 51 tackles
- Chris Marshall (WR) · 601 receiving yards
Auburn
- Elijah Melendez (LB) · 63 tackles
- Kaleb Harris (S) · 49 tackles
- Eric Winters (S) · 48 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Auburn: Byrum Brown (1,557 passing yards).
The spread has moved 2.0 points toward Arkansas since opening (−12.5 → −10.5).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (50.5 → 52.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Auburn fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (9th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 69%
- Line · 80%
- Auburn fans · 9th
- Arkansas fans · 14th
Auburn favored by 10.5 · Total 52.5
Auburn by 10.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Auburn’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 450 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Jordan-Hare Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 88
Arkansas at Auburn · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 12:45 pm ET · Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Jordan-Hare Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 96.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Auburn is worth +5.6 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.
55% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (29-24 home, 14-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 550 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Auburn
- Wk 4Wvs Vanderbilt21-15
- Wk 5Lat Tennessee14-24
- Wk 7Wat Georgia27-24
- Wk 8Lvs LSU17-38
- Wk 9Lat Ole Miss15-45
Arkansas
- Wk 4Wvs Tulsa34-6
- Wk 5Lat Texas A&M7-34
- Wk 6Lvs Tennessee17-24
- Wk 7Wat Vanderbilt31-21
- Wk 9Lvs Missouri10-34
Power rating by week
Auburn is rated 6.4 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Arkansas.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −12.5 → −10.5 · Total: 50.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Auburn 30, Arkansas 28Oct 10, 2020
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2015.