No. 20 Utah routs Arkansas 43-10

Arkansas1-110
No. 20 Utah2-043Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah · Crowd 51,532ESPN

No. 20 Utah routed Arkansas 43-10.

We had Utah favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Scalley is so not Whitt and I love it

Q2 9:23 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Utah a 93% chance, and the closing betting line (Utah was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

FinalUtah 43-10 ArkansasUtah wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
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No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 9:23Utah fans celebrate the bold two-point conversion attempt after Dampier's touchdownESPN missed the 2pt conversion hell yar/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
  2. Q2 8:37Utah fans decry soft pass interference call on Jackson's incomplete passWorst PI maybe everr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 5:00Arkansas fans lament Gilbert's missed field goal as Utah leads 15-3What do you have to lose if you’re Arkansas? No one is expecting you to win so why not go for it on every fourth down?r/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 0:33Parker breaks ankles for touchdown as Utah leads Arkansas 29-3​Is everyone in Arkansas doing okay, or is the whole place in a constant state of mourning or something? I feel so conflicted going through this game thread. Part of me wants Utah…r/CFB game threadWe look better against Arkansas than we did against Idaho lolr/CFB game thread
Utah’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Utah -13.5), at 87% for Utah (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Utah or Arkansas flair (1,237 and 756); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Utah’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 3:39Parker 1-yd TD runUtah goes ahead 7-3Q1, 3:39 · Utah 7, Arkansas 3▲6%Utah’s chance to win, 82% to 88%▲6%Utah’s chance to win, 82% to 88%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 12:17Dampier intercepted by Harrison at the Arkansas 15returned 14 yardsQ2, 12:17 · Utah 7, Arkansas 3▼5%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 87%▼5%Utah’s chance to win, 92% to 87%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 1:55Parker 9-yd TD runUtah leads 22-3Q2, 1:55 · Utah 22, Arkansas 3▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%Utah’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 0:27Dampier 7-yd TD pass to ParkerUtah leads 29-3Q2, 0:27 · Utah 29, Arkansas 329-3score after the play29-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 12:03Dampier 1-yd TD pass to BenneeUtah leads 36-3Q3, 12:03 · Utah 36, Arkansas 336-3score after the play36-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 12:47Dampier 2-yd TD runUtah leads 43-3Q4, 12:47 · Utah 43, Arkansas 343-3score after the play43-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q4, 6:43Hill 21-yd TD pass to Cissecuts it to 43-10Q4, 6:43 · Utah 43, Arkansas 1043-10score after the play43-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 0:53Hill sacked for a 9-yd lossturnover on downsQ4, 0:53 · Utah 43, Arkansas 1043-10score after the play43-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Utah scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Arkansas on 2 of its 11.

Utah’s drives are teal, Arkansas’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arkansas: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalUtah: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntUtah: Punt, from 74 yards out to 66PuntArkansas: Punt, from 94 yards out to 69PuntQ2Utah: Interception, from 65 yards out to 48InterceptionArkansas: Interception, from 71 yards out to 73InterceptionUtah: Touchdown, from 24 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 33Missed FGUtah: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntUtah: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: End of half, from 75 yards out to 47End of halfQ3Utah: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArkansas: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntUtah: Punt, from 62 yards out to 52PuntArkansas: Turned over on downs, from 87 yards out to 30DownsUtah: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Arkansas: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUtah: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsArkansas: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 55DownsUtah: End of game, from 45 yards out to 47End of game
“We look better against Arkansas than we did against Idaho lol”
A Utah fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthUtah fansArkansas fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Utah fans

dampier“Dampier too comfortable someone tell him to stop ****ing around and focus”

Arkansas fans

program“Because every coach in America heard our AD say he didn’t give Sam what he needed to be successful. Doesn’t breed a lot of confidence in the program.”

silverfield“We're going 1-11 this year. Every time the pan over to Silverfield he looks absolutely dumbfounded that this is actually happening.”

every“We're going 1-11 this year. Every time the pan over to Silverfield he looks absolutely dumbfounded that this is actually happening.”

least“At least this team doesn’t keep it close enough for me to be invested after half, unlike the heartbreakers from last year?”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, don, back, fun.

What it cost

Utah’s chance to make the playoff rose from 28% to 30%.

Make the playoff

Arkansas · lost0% → 0%
Utah · won28% → ▲30%28%▲ 30%

Win the conference

Arkansas · lost0% → 0%
Utah · won24% → ▲25%24%▲ 25%

Before the game (September 12, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Utah 43, Arkansas 10

Utah covered −13.5 by 19.5. The total, 53, stayed under 55.5.

ArkansasUtahTotal yardsArkansas 305Utah 442305442Passing yardsArkansas 244Utah 301244301Rushing yardsArkansas 61Utah 14161141First downsArkansas 21Utah 242124TurnoversArkansas 1Utah 111Time of possessionArkansas 31:57Utah 28:0331:5728:03
Team totalsArkansasUtah
Total yards305442
Passing22 of 48, 244 yds20 of 28, 301 yds
Rushing28 for 61 yds34 for 141 yds
First downs2124
Third down7 of 175 of 9
Fourth down2 of 41 of 2
Turnovers11
Penalties7 for 56 yds7 for 50 yds
Time of possession31:5728:03

Arkansas leaders

  • Passing KJ Jackson 14 of 34, 139 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing KJ Jackson 7 for 34 yds; Cam Settles 6 for 25 yds
  • Receiving Chris Marshall 5 for 63 yds; Jamari Hawkins 3 for 47 yds

Utah leaders

  • Passing Devon Dampier 18 of 24, 261 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Wayshawn Parker 10 for 53 yds, 2 TD; Devon Dampier 11 for 50 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Noah Bennee 4 for 113 yds, 1 TD; Wayshawn Parker 5 for 65 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 9 mph from the southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 60 other games played at Rice-Eccles Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 74°, with about 7 in 10 games between 60° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at Rice-Eccles Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah favoredArkansas favored100%Win chanceUtahRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Utah favoredArkansas favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:50 left8:31 p.m.
Arkansas 0, Utah 0 · Utah 87% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the west-northwest · 82°
Smith 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Salt Lake City International airport, 6.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Arkansas · 2-10

Rated 145th in our preseason ratings, 145th now.

Three straight losses.

L 17-31 vs MissouriTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 14 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 17-31 vs Missouri. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 65%.

L 37-52 @ TexasTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 15 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 37-52 at Texas. Chance to win started at 25%, low under 1%, high 28%.

L 22-23 @ LSUTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 1 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 22-23 at LSU. Chance to win started at 31%, low 10%, high 78%.

L 35-38 vs Mississippi State #41 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 35-38 vs Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 97%.

L 24-33 vs AuburnTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 9 as a 2.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 24-33 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 68%, low 7%, high 88%.

L 42-45 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 42-45 vs Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 49%.

L 31-34 @ TennesseeTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 31-34 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 47%.

L 13-56 vs Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 667

lost by 43 as a 5.5-point underdog

Arkansas lost 13-56 vs Notre Dame. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 31-32 @ MemphisTop 25 #27 of 667

lost by 1 as a 7.5-point favorite

Arkansas lost 31-32 at Memphis. Chance to win started at 58%, low 11%, high 97%.

L 35-41 @ Ole MissTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 56-14 vs Arkansas State #113 of 667

won by 42 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 52-7 vs Alabama A&M #180 of 667

won by 45 as a 45.5-point favorite

Arkansas won 52-7 vs Alabama A&M. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Utah · 11-2

Rated 25th in our preseason ratings, 26th now.

Three straight wins, 2 over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 44-22 vs NebraskaTop 25 #87 of 667

won by 22 as a 13.5-point favorite

Utah won 44-22 vs Nebraska. Chance to win started at 86%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 31-21 @ Kansas #66 of 667

won by 10 as a 10.5-point favorite

Utah won 31-21 at Kansas. Chance to win started at 70%, low 30%, high better than 99%.

W 51-47 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #34 of 667

won by 4 as an 18.5-point favorite

Utah won 51-47 vs Kansas State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

W 55-28 @ Baylor #40 of 667

won by 27 as a 9.5-point favorite

Utah won 55-28 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 65%, low 57%, high better than 99%.

W 45-14 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #40 of 667

won by 31 as a 9.5-point favorite

Utah won 45-14 vs Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 80%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

W 53-7 vs Colorado #63 of 667

won by 46 as a 14.5-point favorite

Utah won 53-7 vs Colorado. Chance to win started at 88%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

L 21-24 @ BYUTop 25 #32 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

Utah lost 21-24 at BYU. Chance to win started at 56%, low under 1%, high 69%.

W 42-10 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #47 of 667

won by 32 as an 8.5-point favorite

Utah won 42-10 vs Arizona State. Chance to win started at 77%, low 77%, high better than 99%.

W 48-14 @ West Virginia #77 of 667

won by 34 as a 12.5-point favorite

Utah won 48-14 at West Virginia. Chance to win started at 76%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

L 10-34 vs Texas TechTop 25 #24 of 667

lost by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite

Utah lost 10-34 vs Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 68%, low under 1%, high 68%.

W 31-6 @ Wyoming #122 of 667

won by 25 as a 24.5-point favorite

Utah won 31-6 at Wyoming. Chance to win started at 93%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 63-9 vs Cal Poly #211 of 667

won by 54 as a 42.5-point favorite

Utah won 63-9 vs Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 43-10 @ UCLA #43 of 667

won by 33 as a 6.5-point favorite

Utah won 43-10 at UCLA. Chance to win started at 63%, low 60%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Utah

  • Wk 1Wvs Idaho66-14

Arkansas

  • Wk 1Wvs North Alabama31-14

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Utah’s rushing EPA against Arkansas, 74 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Utah’s rushing EPA against Arkansas’s defense

    74 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Utah offense, 92nd percentile · Arkansas defense, 18th

  2. Utah’s EPA/play against Arkansas’s defense

    62 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Utah offense, 85th percentile · Arkansas defense, 23rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ArkansasUtah
EPA/play, offense
Arkansas · 22Utah · 85
EPA/play, defense
Arkansas · 23Utah · 79
Success rate, offense
Arkansas · 42Utah · 89
Success rate, defense
Arkansas · 30Utah · 93
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arkansas · 11Utah · 71
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arkansas · 77Utah · 13
Rush EPA, offense
Arkansas · 8Utah · 92
Rush EPA, defense
Arkansas · 18Utah · 80
Pass EPA, offense
Arkansas · 37Utah · 71
Pass EPA, defense
Arkansas · 38Utah · 79

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Utah fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (76th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 93% · Line 86%Utah fans · 76thArkansas fans · 31stArkansasUtah

Utah favored by 13.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Utah by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Utah.

opened −9.5now −13.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 54.5now 55.5

Spread: −9.5 → −13.5 · Total: 54.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 80° at kickoff.

Arkansas at Utah · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City

  • 80°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 97weather score, Comfortable
  • Bestof the day's 5 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's five kickoff times. At Rice-Eccles Stadium that day, a 4 pm kickoff would have scored 65, against 97 at 8 pm.

  • 1:30 pm: 66, Rough
  • 4 pm: 65, Rough
  • 5 pm: 74, Rough
  • 7 pm: 93, Comfortable
  • 8 pm: 97, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Utah is worth +3.4 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 36th percentile.

81% at home, 61% on the road against FBS opponents (35-8 home, 27-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,631 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,008 miles to get here.

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