1offseason
Arizona State drops 25 spots in SP+ rankings.
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Big 12 title feel at odds with the 2026 projection, raising questions about sustainability under Kenny Dillingham’s third season.
Arizona State8-5CFP #20Latest
Arizona State fans are split on what comes next.
belief cooled ↓ 6.5vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
49/100 · 194 mentions
~ our readGrounding
about average
6% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 28 pts
~ our readThe model
#43
CFB Zeitgeist · +5.0
✓ measured1Hope-Doping·Offseason
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 and instead won the thing — an 11-3 league-champion, first-ever Playoff team built on Cam Skattebo's shoulders, the most joyful out-of-nowhere season the desert has had.
AP Top 25#24 AP
Sun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being t…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Arizona State
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production70%High continuity
Talent Composite#33 nationally247 composite 738.5
Portal Additions24Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses21Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#40Development class
Sin 3 - Lyrik Rawlsout 5 - Jack BalStarter Risk
current room: 201 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 4 - Ashton Stampsout 2 - Javan RobinsonNeed Filled
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Omarion Millerout 3 - Zechariah SampleUpgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 2 - Cutter Boleyout 2 - Sam LeavittEven
current room: 211 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 2 - David Avitout 2 - Raleek BrownEven
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Owen Longout 1 - Tate RomneyUpgrade
current room: 229 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Morgan State · Sun Sep 6 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.
Offense: SoftDefense: Strong
Arizona State's 2026 Season Balances High Continuity with Strategic Roster Reload
With 70% of its roster returning and a balanced transfer portal churn, Arizona State aims for a 9-4 season. The team's development class and moderate volatility score suggest steady progress.
- Roster reloadArizona State returns 70% of its roster, indicating high continuity, while also adding 24 transfers and losing 21, reflecting a balanced portal churn.
- ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects a 9-4 season with four losses, while the ceiling scenario forecasts an 11-2 record.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Sparky waits with the pitchfork.
Arizona State · the story right now
6 storylines developing
What Arizona State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Jordyn Tyson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Big 12 title feel at odds with the 2026 projection, raising questions about sustainability under Kenny Dillingham’s third season.
what happenedArizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Chamon Metayer is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Derek Eusebio is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Malik McClain is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and No. 33 talent rank suggest Dillingham's fast rebuild faces its first test under Big 12 scrutiny.
what happenedArizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
Died downArizona State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The Offseason Ledger · Arizona State
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Arizona State athletes granted 5th year
Four draft exits, a safety room under pressure, and Sam Leavitt's departure still fresh — Dillingham needed bodies who already know the system, and a fifth year buys exactly that institutional memory.
- Recruiting
Evan Mack commits to Arizona
Third commit from the same California high school — Dillingham's California pipeline is turning into a genuine recruiting corridor, and landing Mack gives the CB room another piece while the safety pressure from four NFL departures still hasn't been answered.
Transfer portal snapshot
+3.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: +17.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)EDGE+7.5
need not filled
CB+7.0
need not filled
WR+5.1
LB+4.1
TE+3.4
IOL-3.4
DL-3.2
low confidence
S-1.8
starter risk
QB-1.1
K+1.0
low confidence
RB-0.8
OT-0.1
P+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Jake Fette
#119 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Cardae Mack
#304 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Julian Hugo
#402 national
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
20th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↓
20th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Market 21pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#42 in field+15000
Big 12 title#7 in market+2000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Arizona State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Arizona State · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-7
Base 9-4
Ceiling 11-2
floor6-7Bowl game.
base9-4Bowl game.
ceiling11-2Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Arizona State · Season outlook Confidence
Arizona State's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Arizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers6 bull takes
💬 fans: 19% volume · negative overall
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and Big 12 title feel at odds with the 2026 projection, raising questions about sustainability under Kenny Dillingham’s third season.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Arizona State enters 2026 rated No. 60 in 2025 SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Loaded 2028 class in state of Arizona has national appeal”
On3 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Kenny Dillingham hints at player addition as ASU football camp opens”
azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“The best images from Arizona State football's first fall practice”
azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“How Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels Arizona State connection can h” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“How Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels Arizona State connection can help Commanders”
Hogs Haven · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“BREAKING: The Class of 2022 Ruling Handed ASU a Roster Cap Problem”
newscentermaine.com · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
💬The boards19% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (70%).›
This event was in 44 of 236 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I think (from a certain perspective) his inability to beat Arizona State as under appreciated. He never won in Tempe which was pretty good IMO."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Not satisfied with the Peach Bowl, UT must steal this from Arizona State as well. HAVE YOU NO SHAME??"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (198 posts): 16% positive · 51% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Arizona State · Season outlook Confidence
Arizona State's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Arizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers6 bull takes
💬 fans: 19% volume · negative overall
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and No. 33 talent rank suggest Dillingham's fast rebuild faces its first test under Big 12 scrutiny.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Arizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers6 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Loaded 2028 class in state of Arizona has national appeal”
On3 · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Kenny Dillingham hints at player addition as ASU football camp opens”
azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“The best images from Arizona State football's first fall practice”
azcentral.com and The Arizona Republic · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“How Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels Arizona State connection can h” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“How Rachaad White, Jayden Daniels Arizona State connection can help Commanders”
Hogs Haven · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“BREAKING: The Class of 2022 Ruling Handed ASU a Roster Cap Problem”
newscentermaine.com · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
💬The boards19% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (70%).›
This event was in 44 of 236 board posts (19%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"I think (from a certain perspective) his inability to beat Arizona State as under appreciated. He never won in Tempe which was pretty good IMO."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Not satisfied with the Peach Bowl, UT must steal this from Arizona State as well. HAVE YOU NO SHAME??"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (198 posts): 16% positive · 51% neutral · 33% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Sep 6
vs Morgan State · at home
Season line6.5 winsover -130
SoftStrong
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
21
TX · 8CA · 4AZ · 2GA · 1KS · 1LA · 1MO · 1OH · 1+2 more
TX leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
88 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Arizona State Defeats TCU 27-24
[Game Thread] TCU @ Arizona State (9:00 PM ET)
[Postgame Thread] Arizona State Defeats Northern Arizona 38-19
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
12 games with TV coverage: 5 national broadcast, 4 ESPN, 3 cable
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 2 afternoon, 8 primetime
Fumble luck
70% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
7 of 10 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 16 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
11% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
7 interceptions of 65 disrupted passes (58 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
93 penalties committed, 73 drawn on opponents — ceding 50 yards of field position.
751 penalty yards committed vs. 701 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Arizona State
49
Δ -6.5 vs last wk
194
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Sparky"
— Arizona State fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Arizona State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
Red Raiders could use a better PR firm. Sometimes it's best to just be quiet.
▲ 1.8k ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards−0.12
National take−0.15
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
288 mentions · 5 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkmiddle of the pack
~ our readArizona State fans are down on the program, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 198 posts from Arizona State fans this week.
Territorial Cup
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Hover a week for both sides’ game
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
coaching decisionLimited signal that season
fans think the team struggles with play-calling near the goal line
PLEASE FIX THE GOAL LINE OFFENSE HOLY FUCK
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 27, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 8
“GG Cougs, deserved the win for sure and you deserve a ranking. It was a frustratingly officiated game but we didn't deserve to win that one anyway.”— r/CFB
Week 2
“Marcel Reed had 360 yards passing with less than 50% completion Chris “Brian VanGorder” Ash, tonight was one of the worst defensive coaching jobs I’ve ever seen. Zero redeeming qualities”— r/CFB
Week 5
“Literally zero sense of urgency from the Cyclones the last 4 mins. The game was not over…”— r/CFB
Week 4
“I don’t give a fuck that the refs favored us in the 2nd half. TCU had every opportunity to put us away with our incompetent red zone offense and couldn’t. Shoutout to our defense for playing incredible in the last quarter and a half.”— r/CFB
Week 1
“You have to go for it from 4th and a foot. To quote a former ASU coach, you play to win the game.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial5 posts
News & campus coverage3 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Bluesky · @adavidhalejoint.bsky.social
3w ago
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Arizona State lives rent-free in
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up Arizona State
Fanbase Health Index · Arizona State · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Arizona State · high confidenceGrowing (61)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-5 (62% win rate)60
Volume — 748 effective signal-N87
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
549 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
asu
×62.5 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
asu×62.5n=56
sims×143.8n=25
leavitt×153.8n=24
tyson×68.7n=15
jeff sims×153.5n=13
jeff×25.9n=17
Mild — <3×
defense×2.3n=108
offense×2.2n=75
Characteristic — 3–10×
kicker×3.7n=22
needs×3.9n=18
“ASU and NAU defense: 😎 ASU and NAU offense: 🤪”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
1,896 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#79 / 138 · 43rd pct25.8
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.5
Total yards/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct416.6
Rush yards/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct192.9
Pass yards/gm#69 / 136 · 50th pct223.7
Yards allowed/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct357.8
Rush yds allowed/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct124.4
Sacks#22 / 136 · 85th pct34
Interceptions#84 / 136 · 39th pct8
3rd-down conv#125 / 136 · 9th pct32.6%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5416416.6/gm5.86/play#37 / 136 · 74th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp4652357.8/gm5.15/play#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush yards
Team2508192.9/gm2.71/play#28 / 136 · 80th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp1617124.4/gm1.79/play#29 / 136 · 79th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush carries
Team49438.0/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp44434.2/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Rush TDs
Team181.4/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp201.5/gm#76 / 136 · 45th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Net pass yards
Team2908223.7/gm3.15/play#69 / 136 · 50th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp3035233.5/gm3.36/play#103 / 136 · 25th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Pass attempts
Team43033.1/gm#41 / 136 · 71st pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp45935.3/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Completions
Team25119.3/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp27721.3/gm#117 / 136 · 15th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Pass TDs
Team201.5/gm#57 / 136 · 59th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp201.5/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Passer rating
Team126.8126.8#89 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp126.3126.3#47 / 136 · 66th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team90.7/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp80.6/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Sacks (def)
Team342.6/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp272.1/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Tackles for loss
Team866.6/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp745.7/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
First downs
Team27421.1/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp25319.5/gm#77 / 136 · 44th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
3rd-down conv
Team614.7/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp695.3/gm#73 / 136 · 47th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
3rd-down att
Team18714.4/gm#27 / 136 · 81st pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp19214.8/gm#114 / 136 · 17th pct#59 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conv
Team211.6/gm#10 / 136 · 93rd pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp191.5/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team362.8/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp372.8/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Time of possession
Team410:1131:33/gm#35 / 136 · 75th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp369:4928:27/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#96 / 135 · 30th pct22/30 (73.3%)
Extra points33/33
Punting#127 / 136 · 7th pct40.0 avg · 48 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team211.6/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp151.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Fumbles lost
Team120.9/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp70.5/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#10 / 11 · 18th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team161.2/gm#129 / 136 · 6th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp292.2/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Punt ret yds
Team13210.2/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp25219.4/gm#123 / 136 · 10th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team27721.3/gm#104 / 136 · 24th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp46836.0/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team75157.8/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp70153.9/gm#84 / 136 · 39th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Other
H1 epa per play opponent#15 / 167 · 92nd pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct0.10.0/gm
Penalties#23 / 136 · 84th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct937.2/gm
Recruiting rating#44 / 138 · 69th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct203.415.6/gm
Red zone pass rate#46 / 154 · 71st pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#49 / 136 · 65th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct70.5/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#50 / 136 · 64th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct90.7/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#56 / 143 · 62nd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct0.10.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#56 / 136 · 60th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct735.6/gm
H2 epa per play#57 / 142 · 61st pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct0.20.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#80 / 138 · 43rd pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#4 / 11 · 73rd pct0.40.0/gm
Punt returns#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct141.1/gm
Interceptions (def)#84 / 136 · 39th pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct80.6/gm
Punt ret (opp)#85 / 136 · 38th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct171.3/gm
Kick ret (opp)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct241.8/gm
Kick returns#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct161.2/gm
H1 epa per play#102 / 162 · 38th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct0.10.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#131 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct120.9/gm
First down pass rate#161 / 215 · 26th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct0.40.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off32.6%#125 / 136 · 9th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def35.9%#42 / 136 · 70th pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down conversion
Off58.3%#47 / 136 · 66th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def51.4%#58 / 136 · 58th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Turnover margin#108 / 136 · 21st pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct-0.46/gm
Sack rate (def)#39 / 136 · 72nd pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct7.4%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team433.3/gm#71 / 167 · 58th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp473.6/gm#129 / 166 · 23rd pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Red zone score %
Team76.7%76.7%#94 / 167 · 44th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp66.0%66.0%#9 / 166 · 95th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Points / drive
Team1.80.1/gm#89 / 167 · 47th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp1.70.1/gm#50 / 166 · 70th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / drive
Team42.73.3/gm#56 / 167 · 67th pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp36.42.8/gm#33 / 166 · 81st pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.70.5/gm#51 / 167 · 70th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp6.50.5/gm#71 / 166 · 58th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team12.2%12.2%#62 / 167 · 63rd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp15.8%15.8%#45 / 166 · 73rd pct#24 / 69 · 67th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#52 / 145 · 65th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct+0.9%+0.9%
Havoc rate
Team19.1%19.1%#15 / 140 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Opp17.5%17.5%#110 / 140 · 22nd pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct
Standard-downs success
Team46.6%46.6%#90 / 154 · 42nd pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct
Opp46.8%46.8%#65 / 172 · 63rd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Passing-downs success
Team29.1%29.1%#95 / 153 · 39th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Opp29.1%29.1%#53 / 149 · 65th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#88 / 143 · 39th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct
Opp2.72.7#40 / 155 · 75th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct
Stuff rate
Team19.7%19.7%#94 / 143 · 35th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct
Opp21.7%21.7%#28 / 155 · 83rd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Power success rate
Team56.8%56.8%#125 / 137 · 9th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct
Opp67.3%67.3%#52 / 141 · 64th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off58.4%#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def60.3%#48 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.8#93 / 136 · 32nd pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def6.6#44 / 136 · 68th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / completion
Off11.6#70 / 136 · 49th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def11.0#42 / 136 · 70th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / carry#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct5.1
Yards / play#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct5.86
Scoring margin#73 / 136 · 47th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct+1.3/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.32 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 145 / 239 | 60.7 | 1628 | 6.8 | 10 | 3 | 129.2 | 60.7 | 6.1 | 7.4 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage23.4% 55th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 4 tracked snapshots, 570 mentions our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 53rd percentile among FBS QBs, up from the 88th | |||||||||||||
| Scrambler · +0.12 EPA/play | 2 | 9 | 105 / 188 | 55.9 | 1261 | 6.7 | 10 | 6 | 123.4 | 64.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage34.7% 88th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.2 91th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeff Sims's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 186 | 1141 #20 FBS | 6.1 | 4 | 88 | 11.6 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 16.5 | 12.0% (45/376) | |
Yards by week → Speed Merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.8 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.2% bottom 22th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Raleek Brown's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.15 EPA/play | 6 | 9 | 56 | 240 | 4.3 | 2 | 25 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 23.6 | 14.5 | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight220 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share1.8% bottom 7th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 87th percentile among FBS RBs to the 8th | |||||||||||||
| -0.06 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 24 | 84 | 3.5 | 0 | 14 | 7.4 | 7.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.54 EPA/play | — | 9 | 61 | 711 | 11.7 | 8 #23 FBS | 57 | 17.3 | 17.9 | 25.3% (95/376) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume61 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)50.6 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordyn Tyson's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.15 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 31 | 441 | 14.2 | 1 | 36 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 17.0% (64/376) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.4 62th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Malik McClain's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.27 EPA/play | 7 | 10 | 38 | 375 | 9.9 | 4 | 27 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 12.2% (46/376) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.2 bottom 50th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume38 91th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chamon Metayer's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.43 EPA/play | 83 | 9 | 22 | 341 | 15.5 | 2 | 68 | 9 | 8.3 | 9.6% (36/376) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 73th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume22 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Derek Eusebio's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.38 EPA/play | 18 | 6 | 16 | 273 | 17.1 | 1 | 51 | 4.1 | 9.9 | 5.9% (22/376) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception20.5 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 16th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 23rd percentile among FBS WRs, up from the 70th | |||||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 16 | 10 | 7 | 169 | 24.1 | 0 | 49 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 4.5% (17/376) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.17 EPA/play | 9 | 6 | 13 | 96 | 7.4 | 1 | 21 | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.8% (18/376) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · senior View Cameron Harpole's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.35 EPA/play | 15 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 | 8 | 2.3 | 1.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 11 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 6.5 #55 FBS | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 3rd to 36th to 86th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 13 | 37 | 18 | 9 | 4.5 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.3% 85th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Elijah O'Neal's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 13 | 29 | 16 | 6.5 | 1 | 4 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View C.J. Fite's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 11 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.4% 61th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 47th percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 20th, now back up to 48th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 10 | 8 | 19 | 11 | 6.5 | 4 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate34.2% 98th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 36th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 89th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 32 | 9 | 18 | 11 | 7.5 | 4 | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate41.7% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 68th percentile among FBS IDLs, fell to 5th, now back up to 56th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 25th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 5th | |||||||
| 55 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 96 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 13 | 101 | 52 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume101 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate2.0% bottom 38th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 22nd to 53rd to 88th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 12 | 98 | 54 | 44 | 14 #33 FBS | 7 #39 FBS | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.3% 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume98 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 73rd percentile among FBS LBs to the 97th | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 18 | 11 | 39 | 16 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 0th percentile to the 58th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| 24 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 43 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 49 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 4 | 13 | 84 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume84 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Myles Rowser's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 12 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.5% 63th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 37th to 68th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 11 | 44 | 12 #8 FBS | 2 | 1 | 1 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate27.3% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Keith Abney's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 12 | 11 | 42 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate19.0% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 48th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 87th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 11 | 40 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS Ss to the 49th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 12 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 74th percentile among FBS Ss to the 30th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 38 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kyan McDonald's full player page | |||||||
| — | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ball Hawk | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nyland Green's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 35 | 13 | 22/30 | 73.3 | 33/33 | 99 | 54 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 31 | 9 | 36 | 1491 | 41.4 | 58 | 6 | 2 |
| 34 | 6 | 12 | 429 | 35.8 | 50 | 2 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.38 EPA/play | 16 | 10 | 11 | 215 | 19.5 | 0 | 29 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 4 | 12 | 101 | 8.4 | 0 | 31 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Jordan Crook
LB
101 tot (def)
2.
Myles Rowser
DB
84.0 tot (def)
3.
Raleek Brown
RB
1,141 yds (rush)
4.
Keith Abney
DB
44.0 tot (def)
5.
Javan Robinson
DB
42.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
23
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Keyshaun Elliott
LB
#20 of 583
Raleek Brown
RB
#15 of 326
Keith Abney
CB
#29 of 364
Jordan Crook
LB
#79 of 583
Jordyn Tyson
WR
#70 of 485
Elijah O'Neal
EDGE
#70 of 420
+17 more
Arizona State · 2025 schedule & results8-5Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 59% · 6 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 2 ranked wins banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #19 | #156 | -30.5 | Northern Arizona | W 38–19 131 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #25 | #123 | -5.5 | @Mississippi State | L 20–24 137 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #23 | #53 | -18.5 | Texas State | W 34–15 145 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #23 | #22 | +1.5 | @Baylor | W 27–24 141 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #23 | #35 | -3 | TCUTop 25 win | W 27–24 138 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 12 | #25 | #35 | +8.5 | @Utah | L 10–42 131 | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #44 | #5 | +8.5 | Texas TechTop 10 win | W 26–22 148 | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Oct 26 | #32 | #55 | -7.5 | Houston | L 16–24 137 | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #35 | #40 | +7.5 | @Iowa State | W 24–19 139 | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #31 | #107 | -9.5 | West Virginia | W 25–23 137 | 7-3 | 5-2 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #40 | #103 | -6.5 | @Colorado | W 42–17 140 | 8-3 | 6-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #33 | #40 | +2.5 | Arizona | L 7–23 141 | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Dec 31 | #38 | #62 | +4 | Duke (N) | L 39–42 | 8-5 | 6-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31 | Duke | L 39–42 | — | — | — | +0.073 | 43.2% | 131.3% | One-score loss |
| Nov 29 | Arizona | L 7–23 | 214 | 5 | 19:59 | -0.139 | 30.9% | 125.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 23 | @Colorado | W 42–17 | 580 | 4 | 33:08 | +0.314 | 37.5% | 178.4% | Most explosive |
| Nov 15 | West Virginia | W 25–23 | 330 | 1 | 32:34 | +0.020 | 38.6% | 109.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 1 | @Iowa State | W 24–19 | 467 | 3 | 32:04 | -0.023 | 37.0% | 117.4% | One-score win |
| Oct 26 | Houston | L 16–24 | 426 | 1 | 22:58 | +0.217 | 37.7% | 139.2% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | Texas Tech | W 26–22 | 394 | 0 | 37:12 | +0.079 | 39.3% | 112.4% | One-score win |
| Oct 12 | @Utah | L 10–42 | 259 | 0 | 36:26 | +0.027 | 36.1% | 119.3% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 27 | TCU | W 27–24 | 500 | 1 | 35:47 | +0.182 | 40.0% | 122.6% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Baylor | W 27–24 | 401 | 0 | 36:24 | +0.102 | 41.0% | 97.6% | One-score win |
| Sep 14 | Texas State | W 34–15 | 433 | 0 | 30:43 | +0.338 | 43.9% | 145.2% | |
| Sep 6 | @Mississippi State | L 20–24 | 333 | 2 | 37:57 | +0.049 | 43.2% | 93.9% | One-score loss |
| Aug 31 | Northern Arizona | W 38–19 | 460 | 1 | 28:26 | +0.516 | 48.4% | 166.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (13 games) | 400 | 1.5 | +0.135 | 39.8% | 127.5% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Arizona State fields a limited offense behind a strong defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arizona State actually scores
41st percentile quality, 62nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Arizona State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 27th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 26th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arizona State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
40th percentile success on standard downs, 37th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Arizona State by half
1st-half offense ranks 38th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 61st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Arizona State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.13; 43rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.52 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Arizona State reads strongest in rushing epa allowed (top 34%) and rushing epa (top 36%); the crux lives in success rate, where Arizona State sits at the 24th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Arizona State
Most Similar Programs · Arizona StateReads Like
ArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansasTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontBaylorTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Arizona State · 2018-present
Strong
64% home win rate vs 42% on the road. margin runs +4.4 better at home. Mountain America Stadium seats 65,870, averaging 74% full (49,046 attendance, 27 games reported).
Home31-17Away17-23
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Raleek Brown and Kanye Udoh split the carries (182/238 vs 56/238) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Raleek Brown owns the receiving work.
Raleek BrownKanye Udoh
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
p = 0.000 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 1 survived, 3 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jordyn Tyson (WR) and Chamon Metayer (TE) split the targets (87/131 vs 44/131) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Jordyn TysonChamon Metayer
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Arizona State’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Beau Baldwin (2023) → Marcus Arroyo (2024–2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 15 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Donnie Henderson (2022) → Brian Ward (2023–2025)
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Arizona State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Marcus Arroyo (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 38% → 2025: 37% · 1-pt range · #171 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 29% → 2025: 42% · 13-pt range · #75 of 171 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 48% → 2025: 37% · 11-pt range · #123 of 171 · a typical amount
Defense: Brian Ward (2023–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 52% → 2025: 37% · 15-pt range · #37 of 189 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 35% → 2025: 42% · 13-pt range · #96 of 189 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2023: 50% → 2025: 37% · 13-pt range · #112 of 188 · a typical amount
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Arizona State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.9% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 194-play sample) — mid-pack, 16 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=194 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 60.8%
Historical echo
Arizona State’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
Boston College 1951–1956
held the gain
Washington State 1938–1945
fell back
Minnesota 2010–2015
kept climbing
Illinois 2004–2009
held the gain
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
86°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 74 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Arizona State's 2014–2025 record is 78-66. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Territorial Cup
89 meetings since 1931 See the whole history →
Heat trajectory
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Fan Heat Index
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
Arizona State
Awaiting
Arizona
Awaiting
Arizona State
—
Arizona
—
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
- L 2025 Loss 7–23
- W 2024 Win 49–7
- L 2023 Loss 23–59
- L 2022 Loss 35–38
- W 2021 Win 38–15
All-Time Record
611-389-18
since 1931 · 92 seasons · .600 win rate
HOME
396-168-7
AWAY
199-200-10
NEUTRAL
16-21-1
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program résumé
1CFP apps
The program, in full — read the essay
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 in 2024 and won the conference. A year later, with Cam Skattebo in the NFL and Sam Leavitt's foot in a boot, the Sun Devils went 8-5. Now Kenny Dillingham is rebuilding the quarterback room and asking a fair question: was 2024 a foundation or a ceiling?
The 2024 season was the most joyful out-of-nowhere run the desert has had since Jake Plummer took Arizona State to the Rose Bowl in 1996. Dillingham — a Tempe kid coaching his hometown school — rebuilt a 3-9 roster into an 11-3 Big 12 champion in three years, picked last in the preseason and treated as a fluke all season long. Cam Skattebo carried the offense, finishing as a Heisman finalist. The blue-chip programs that had never taken Tempe seriously were looking at a program that had beaten them to a Playoff berth. The Fork Up was genuine.
The 2025 answer was more complicated. Leavitt broke his foot against Baylor and eventually entered the transfer portal; backup Jeff Sims started down the stretch and then declared for the NFL Draft. Skattebo was gone. A Sun Bowl loss to Duke, 42-39, closed the year at 8-5. The internal fracture is a real one: the faction that sees a sustainable Dillingham program, culture-built and energy-driven, versus the faction bracing for the regression now that the two players who powered the breakthrough are both gone. Dillingham's answer entering 2026 is to find the next quarterback and prove the system creates stars rather than depending on them.
The 2026 Big 12 season will adjudicate the real question, which is not whether Arizona State can win 11 games again — it is whether the program has enough infrastructure to compete for the league title when it is not the team nobody respects until kickoff. Being the overlooked pick was Tempe's fuel in 2024. Getting picked higher changes the dynamic. Dillingham has earned the chance to manage that shift; the rebuilt quarterback room is what determines whether he gets to.
How they play
High-energy, downhill football under Dillingham — a scheme built on physical running and fast-pace tempo that weaponized Skattebo's carry-count in 2024. The identity underneath that season was a defense that played above its recruiting ranking, a chip-fueled home-field advantage in the desert heat, and a coaching staff that kept an undermanned roster running at the right moment in the Big 12 calendar. The 2026 version depends on who the new quarterback is and whether the offensive system transfers to a new arm.
Steady
Arizona State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.12 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Arizona State
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5 · CFP #20 / AP #24
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5 · CFP #20 / AP #24Ranked (25-16)
Arizona State: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big 12 Standing · 2025
5th in the Big 12
Arizona State sits 5th of 16 in the Big 12 at 6-3. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Arizona State
Coaching Era · Arizona StateKenny Dillingham
Kenny Dillingham has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Era Kenny Dillingham · 2023–presentPrev: Herm Edwards (2020–2022)OC: Marcus ArroyoPrev OC: Beau Baldwin (2023)DC: Brian WardPrev DC: Donnie Henderson (2022)
4
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Fork Up
since 1980s
The 'Fork Up' hand sign — three fingers held aloft like a pitchfork — is the Sun Devil fan identity marker. Used during every game, photographed at every recruit visit, raised after touchdowns. The pitchfork-as-mascot symbol fits the Sun Devil identity uniquely.
Sparky the Sun Devil
since 1946
Sparky the Sun Devil — designed in 1946 by Disney animator Berk Anthony — is one of CFB's most-distinctive mascot characters. The pitchfork-wielding devil + maroon-and-gold colors anchor every game-day visual.
2024 CFP Run
since 2024
Kenny Dillingham's 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance — coming off a 3-9 floor in 2023 — is one of the most-improbable single-season turnarounds in CFB history. Cam Skattebo's Heisman-finalist running + Dillingham's age-34 youngest-P5-coach status created national narrative momentum.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 1996 Rose Bowl season
11-1, a Pac-10 title and a Rose Bowl berth — a near-perfect run to the doorstep of a national title
2004
Tillman's enlistment and death
The Sun Devil who chose service over the NFL and gave his life — the program's enduring identity
Wound
The 2024 Big 12 title and Playoff berth
Picked last, won the league and reached the first 12-team Playoff — the great modern Sun Devil season
Moment of the Year · Arizona State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Arizona State · 2025Won 26-22 vs Texas Tech
Week 8 of 2025. Beat a top-7 opponent on the field.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 2-6
Most recent: 2025 — loss 42-39 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
20252024202120192018
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
10 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
10
picks · 2 R1
#8
Jordyn Tyson
Wide Receiver · 2026 · New Orleans · #70/485 final season
Succeeded by Jaren Hamilton · 4★
#21
Max Iheanachor
Offensive Tackle · 2026 · Pittsburgh
#91
Rachaad White
Running Back · 2022 · Tampa Bay · #16/315 final season
#26 all-time · 26 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Arizona State’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Mike Norvell2016 · Chip Lindsey2017 · Billy Napier2018–2019 · Rob Likens2020–2021 · Zak Hill2022 · Glenn Thomas2023 · Beau Baldwin2024–2025 (ongoing) · Marcus Arroyo
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · co-Chris Ball / Keith Patterson2016 · Keith Patterson2017 · Phil Bennett2018–2019 · Danny Gonzales2020 · co-Antonio Pierce / co-Marvin Lewis2021 · Antonio Pierce2022 · Donnie Henderson2023–2025 (ongoing) · Brian Ward
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 70% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the EDGE room but opened a hole at S.
A first-rounder gone at WR headlines 4 2026 draft departures to replace.
Arizona State signs higher-rated classes than its draft yield delivers.
r/cfb moments
2.1k
[Postgame Thread] Arizona State Defeats TCU 27-24
835
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Arizona State 27-17
590
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Arizona State 28-27
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