Big 12 · Kenny Dillingham, year 4 (24-18) · Mountain America Stadium · 65,870 · 54,004 avg in 2026
LastW 24–17 vs Kansas · Sat Sep 19 · Owen Long 1 INT, 12 tackles
Nextvs Baylor · Sat Oct 3 · time TBA · Mountain America Stadium · series 2-0, won the last 2
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #54 | #218 | -43.5✓ | Morgan State | W 70–7 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #52 | #6 | +15.5✗ | @Texas A&M | L 20–48 123 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #46 | #78 | -5.5✓ | Kansas (N) | W 24–17 140 | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #52 | #35 | Baylor | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Hawai'i | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Texas Tech | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Kansas State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @BYU | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Colorado | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @UCF | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Oklahoma State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Arizona |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Kansas | W 24–17 | 228 | 0 | 30:42 | -0.203 | 31.3% | 118.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @Texas A&M | L 20–48 | 369 | 4 | 30:04 | -0.329 | 34.4% | 121.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Morgan State | W 70–7 | 681 | 1 | 29:48 | +0.681 | 57.7% | 160.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 426 | 1.7 | +0.050 | 41.2% | 133.3% | ||||
Game Week
11 days
until kickoff · vs Baylor · Sat Oct 3 · time TBA
Arizona State was picked dead-last in the Big 12 and instead won the thing — an 11-3 league-champion, first-ever Playoff team built on Cam Skattebo's shoulders, the most joyful out-of-nowhere season the desert has had.
Sun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cooling. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
I haven’t seen, since I’ve been here, a safety with that type of range that he showed on the one he barely dropped
Next Oct 3
vs Baylor · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Kenny Dillingham's 4th season opens with an 8-5 record and a #24 AP finish, but the fanbase remains uneasy as Arizona State navigates its identity shift in the Big 12.
our readdeveloping
Jordyn Tyson produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Chamon Metayer is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Derek Eusebio is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Malik McClain is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Arizona State dropped 25 spots in SP+ — the 8-5 record and No. 33 talent rank suggest Dillingham's fast rebuild faces its first test under Big 12 scrutiny.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Arizona State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 124 of 2194 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Arizona State enters 2025 rated No. 60 in SP+ (+3.9), down 25 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 259 of 2194 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.
The program ledger
since 2025ASU TE Khamari Anderson out for season
Anderson out punches another hole in a TE room already thin — Dillingham's offense loses a red-zone target it hadn't fully replaced since the spring depth shuffle.
Cutter Boley named starting QB
Dillingham's staff is literally coaching turnovers out of his game — the job is Boley's to lose, and with 4 draft departures thinning the roster, ASU needs him to protect the ball before he can do anything else.
Zyrus Fiaseu out for season
Fiaseu going down tightens an already thin Sun Devil line — four draft exits already stressed the depth chart, and now Dillingham's dealing with a genuine starter-tier hole heading into Big 12 play.
Reed Harris: 9 rec · 189 yds · 2 TD at Texas A&M
Top 1% receiving yards game since 2021. at Texas A&M (FBS) L 20-48.
Carson Crawford commits to Arizona State
Four NFL Draft departures and a safety room under pressure — Crawford is Dillingham's development-track answer to a depth problem that's been quietly building while the offense gets all the hype.
Arizona State athletes granted 5th year
Four draft exits, a safety room under pressure, and Sam Leavitt's departure still fresh — Dillingham needed bodies who already know the system, and a fifth year buys exactly that institutional memory.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
TX leads the 2026 class with 8 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
88 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Arizona State player grew up 860 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Mountain America Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 103 of 107 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
31st percentile among FBS programs
57% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~52% league baseline.
4 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
15% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
2 interceptions of 13 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
20 penalties committed, 10 drawn on opponents — ceding 67 yards of field position.
149 penalty yards committed vs. 82 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Arizona State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026