Colorado at Arizona State
Colorado (3‑5) at Arizona State (4‑4) — Arizona State is favored by 3. The model gives Arizona State a 64% shot. Colorado’s rushing offense is at the 7th percentile; Arizona State’s run defense is at the 54th.
How they got here
Last three games
Colorado · 3-5
Rated 163rd in our preseason ratings, 103rd now, up 60 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arizona State · 4-4
Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 63rd now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 11-point win over Kansas State as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Colorado’s rushing EPA against Arizona State, 47 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Colorado’s rushing EPA against Arizona State’s defense
Colorado offense, 7th percentile · Arizona State defense, 54th
Colorado’s EPA/play against Arizona State’s defense
Colorado offense, 24th percentile · Arizona State defense, 61st
Arizona State’s explosive plays against Colorado’s defense
Arizona State offense, 30th percentile · Colorado defense, 58th
What’s at stake
Colorado
- Colorado needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 39% to get there with a win here, 8% with a loss.
- Colorado is the program with a 1990 national title and the most-watched college football story of the 2020s thanks to Coach Prime.
Arizona State
- Arizona State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 87% to get there with a win here, 46% with a loss.
- Arizona State is the Big 12 newcomer whose 2024 11-3 + Big 12 championship + first-ever CFP appearance under Kenny Dillingham completed the rebuild from 2-19 to playoff team in three years.
The series
Arizona State leads the series 11-4
15 meetings since 2006 · Arizona State won the last meeting
- 2025Arizona State 42-17
- 2023Colorado 27-24
- 2022Arizona State 42-34
- 2021Arizona State 35-13
- 2019Colorado 34-31
Each line is Arizona State’s chance to win through that meeting. Arizona State is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Colorado
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery Buffs fan knows the deal: the same cameras that made Boulder the center of the sport are the ones counting down to the day they can call it a circus that fell apart. The fanbase loves the attention and resents the verdict riding in behind it.
What this game touches
The 2025 fall to earth. The year after a 9-4 season carried by Travis Hunter (No. 2 overall) and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado went 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) — a 53-7 wipeout at Utah, blowouts to both Arizona schools — and the questions about whether the show could ever become a program got loud.
Arizona State
The chip · vs the national mediaSun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being the team nobody respects until kickoff.
What this game touches
The 2025 comedown after the dream. The year after the Playoff run, Arizona State slid to 8-5 — Sam Leavitt broke his foot against Baylor, had season-ending surgery and entered the transfer portal, Cam Skattebo was gone to the NFL, and a Sun Bowl loss to Duke (42-39) closed a season that asked whether 2024 was the start of something or a one-off.
Best players
Colorado
- Gideon Lampron (LB) · 77 tackles
- Randon Fontenette (DB) · 69 tackles
- Naeten Mitchell (DB) · 60 tackles
Arizona State
- Owen Long (LB) · 72 tackles
- Reed Harris (WR) · 804 receiving yards
- Martell Hughes (LB) · 62 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (69th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Arizona State favored by 3 · Total 48.5
Arizona State by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Arizona State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Mountain America Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 88, noon Saturdays 69
Colorado at Arizona State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · Mountain America Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Mountain America Stadium: noon Saturdays score 69, 3:30 pm 72, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 69, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 72, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arizona State is worth +2.0 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.
62% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (29-18 home, 17-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.7 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 585 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arizona State
- Wk 5Lvs Baylor19-55
- Wk 6Wvs Hawai'i30-12
- Wk 7Lat Texas Tech25-53
- Wk 8Wvs Kansas State28-17
- Wk 9Lat BYU20-27
Colorado
- Wk 4Lat Baylor13-23
- Wk 5Lvs Texas Tech7-29
- Wk 7Lvs Utah24-27
- Wk 8Lat Oklahoma State24-57
- Wk 9Wvs Kansas State27-24
Power rating by week
Arizona State is rated 4.8 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Colorado.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −4 → −3 · Total: 49.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arizona State13th2-3
- Colorado14th1-4
Last meeting in our History pages
- Colorado 27, Arizona State 24Oct 7, 2023