Kansas State at Arizona State
Kansas State (4‑2) at Arizona State (3‑3) — Kansas State is favored by 2.5. Kansas State’s rushing offense is at the 94th percentile; Arizona State’s run defense is at the 21st.
How they got here
Last three games
Kansas State · 4-2
Rated 32nd in our preseason ratings, 42nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Arizona State · 3-3
Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 75th now, down 21 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Kansas State’s rushing EPA against Arizona State, 73 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Kansas State’s rushing EPA against Arizona State’s defense
Kansas State offense, 94th percentile · Arizona State defense, 21st
Kansas State’s EPA/play against Arizona State’s defense
Kansas State offense, 84th percentile · Arizona State defense, 37th
Arizona State’s explosive plays against Kansas State’s defense
Arizona State offense, 37th percentile · Kansas State defense, 5th
What’s at stake
Kansas State
- Kansas State needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 98% to get there with a win here, 87% with a loss.
- Kansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
Arizona State
- Arizona State needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 68% to get there with a win here, 32% with a loss.
- Arizona State is still shaking off a 28-point loss.
The series
Arizona State leads the series 6-1
7 meetings since 1964 · Arizona State won the last meeting
- 2024Arizona State 24-14
- 2002 · neutral siteKansas State 34-27
- 1989Arizona State 31-0
- 1982Arizona State 30-7
- 1972Arizona State 56-14
Each line is Arizona State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Kansas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the man, and the 6-6 year just gave the doubters their opening again.
What this game touches
The 2025 stumble and Klieman's exit. K-State opened 2025 ranked No. 17, then went 6-6 and declined a bowl amid a coaching change, injuries and portal losses. Chris Klieman retired after the regular season — an unexpected handoff that left Manhattan steadying itself rather than contending, the program's first bowl-less year since 2020.
Arizona State
The chip · vs the national mediaSun Devil fans say the sport picked them last in 2024 and treated the title that followed as a fluke all season — they say the preseason polls still won't take Tempe seriously, and they relish being the team nobody respects until kickoff.
What this game touches
The 2025 comedown after the dream. The year after the Playoff run, Arizona State slid to 8-5 — Sam Leavitt broke his foot against Baylor, had season-ending surgery and entered the transfer portal, Cam Skattebo was gone to the NFL, and a Sun Bowl loss to Duke (42-39) closed a season that asked whether 2024 was the start of something or a one-off.
Best players
Kansas State
- Logan Bartley (S) · 34 tackles
- Avery Johnson (QB) · 1,301 passing yards — Heisman odds: 87th (+30000)
- Mekhi Mason (LB) · 28 tackles
Arizona State
- Reed Harris (WR) · 653 receiving yards
- Owen Long (LB) · 52 tackles
- Martell Hughes (LB) · 40 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Rodney Fields Jr. (RB) — Kansas State’s leading rusher (386 rushing yards) takes on Arizona State’s run defense (21st percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona State fans are in a better mood than Kansas State fans (78th vs 56th among FBS fanbases), even with Kansas State favored.
Kansas State favored by 2.5 · Total 55.5
Kansas State by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Kansas State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Kansas State at Arizona State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:45 pm ET · ESPN2 · Mountain America Stadium.
- 75°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 8 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Mountain America Stadium: noon Saturdays score 69, 3:30 pm 72, 7:30 pm 88.
- noon: 69, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 72, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arizona State is worth +1.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile.
61% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (28-18 home, 17-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 941 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arizona State
- Wk 2Lat Texas A&M20-48
- Wk 3Wat Kansas24-17
- Wk 5Lvs Baylor19-55
- Wk 6Wvs Hawai'i30-12
- Wk 7Lat Texas Tech25-53
Kansas State
- Wk 2Wvs Washington State34-7
- Wk 3Wvs Tulane31-20
- Wk 4Lat Cincinnati26-31
- Wk 6Lvs Houston16-35
- Wk 7Wvs Kansas35-24
Power rating by week
Kansas State is rated 4.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Arizona State.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +3 → +2.5 · Total: 56.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Arizona State13th1-2
- Kansas State12th1-2