Avery Johnson survived a 6-6 disappointment in 2025, then chose to come back and fix it. His new head coach is Collin Klein — the man who recruited him to Manhattan — and their reunion sets up exactly the kind of senior-year redemption arc that award voters notice.
6′3″ · 200 lb · Wichita, KS · Maize
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
How he plays
Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Sack rate: 99th percentile.
The full scouting readThe numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 13 car · 90 yds · 5 TD -- top 0.1% rushing TDs game. -- Best game: 199 pass yds, 3 TD, 23 rush yds, vs Nicholls
The play that turned itSwung Baylor from 16% to 61% to win.Kansas State at Baylor · 35-34
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Avery Johnson survived a 6-6 disappointment in 2025, then chose to come back and fix it. His new head coach is Collin Klein — the man who recruited him to Manhattan — and their reunion sets up exactly the kind of senior-year redemption arc that award voters notice.
Aura™ · Him Watch
+27aura tax
60th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=256
— more hype than the tape.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Also worth knowing:
“Avery Johnson followed a 66-yard scamper with a 7-yard keeper for a touchdown. K-State 17, Tulane 7, 2:38 Q2”
Johnson's dual-threat profile is already elite on the ground. Our play-by-play clocks him at the 89th percentile in sack avoidance, the 89th percentile in run success rate, and the 89th percentile in explosive run rate — the full trifecta that tells you he's dangerous with his legs in every sense: elusive in the pocket, decisive at the line, and capable of taking the top off a defense on a read-keep. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry on designed runs (72nd percentile), which isn't accident football. That's a quarterback who plays with patience and then punishes hesitation.
The honest part of the 2025 ledger is that the passing numbers didn't match. His success rate through the air (44th percentile) and explosive pass rate (31st percentile) lagged well behind a program with Big 12 championship ambitions. The 6-6 season wasn't all on him — K-State's supporting cast thinned — but it raised the central question for 2026: can a quarterback who is genuinely elite with his legs become a complete enough passer to make defenses defend the whole field?
Under Klein, who ran this same read-option system as a player and helped design the offense that made Johnson a prospect, the answer is plausibly yes. Johnson enters 2026 already sixth on K-State's all-time passing yardage list with a chance to shatter multiple program records. The Maxwell Trophy is within range if the passing efficiency catches up to the rushing brilliance. That is the entire 2026 season, compressed into one sentence.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Johnson is a runner who happens to throw — and on designed carries, that combination is borderline unguardable. The defining cluster is his 89th-percentile sack avoidance, 89th-percentile run success rate, and 89th-percentile explosive run rate: he keeps the pocket clean, converts the first down when he pulls it, and occasionally breaks one for 58 yards (his long in 2025). His 72nd-percentile YPC (7.7 yards per carry) confirms this isn't volume padding. Through the air, the picture is more complicated — 38th-percentile pass success rate, 44th-percentile explosive pass rate — pointing to a quarterback whose arm is an asset but whose eyes and timing still have room to grow. In 2026, the gap between his rushing ceiling and his passing floor is the whole story.
Written by our staff.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2026
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Chris Klieman → Collin Klein. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Kansas State | 58 | 83 | 69.9% | 618 | 7.4 | 6 | 2 | 151.5 | 62 | -- | -- |
| 2025 | Kansas State | 204 | 341 | 59.8% | 2,380 | 7.0 | 18 | 6 | 132.4 | 43 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Kansas State | 217 | 372 | 58.3% | 2,712 | 7.3 | 25 | 10 | 136.4 | 44 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 37 | 66 | 56.1% | 479 | 7.3 | 5 | 0 | 142.0 | 48 | -- | -- |
| Career | 516 | 862 | 59.9% | 6,189 | 7.2 | 54 | 18 | 136.7 | 45 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Kansas State | 24 | 253 | 10.5 | 3 | -- |
| 2025 | Kansas State | 109 | 477 | 4.4 | 8 | -- |
| 2024 | Kansas State | 113 | 605 | 5.4 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Kansas State | 51 | 288 | 5.6 | 7 | -- |
| Career | 297 | 1,623 | 5.5 | 25 | -- |
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 71-3vs Nicholls | 15/21 | 199 | 3 | 0 | 9.5 | — | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 34-7vs Washington State | 22/34 | 192 | 3 | 2 | 5.6 | 50.9 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 31-20vs Tulane | 21/28 | 227 | 0 | 0 | 8.1 | 94.4 | Season-high 227 yds |
| Total | 58/83 | 618 | 6 | 2 | 7.7 | 72.7 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2026
W 71–3
vs Nicholls
199 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · 23 rush yds (4 car) · 1 TD
Dominant 68-point win at home against Nicholls.
With B. White — 7 rush yds (1 car) · S. McClannan — 48 yards per punt · 2 punts · 1 inside the 20
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +227 passing yards.
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: sack rate (99th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (84th percentile). Concern: pass yards (12th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.8157 of 126 QBsSack rate
0.0%1 of 126 QBsRarely sacked (1 of 126 QBs) and still 57 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 70.7% completion on 82 attempts · 18% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 72 dropbacks62Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
54.9%97th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -2.1% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
7.1353th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.5 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
0.2%99th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (10 of 82 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 206 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 206 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 0.7 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Collin Klein
Pass share
43.2%
89 pass / 117 run
Plays / game
68.7
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-Big 12
Based on 2025: #10 of 17 Big 12 QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Johnson is a runner who happens to throw — and on designed carries, that combination is borderline unguardable. The defining cluster is his 89th-percentile sack avoidance, 89th-percentile run success rate, and 89th-percentile explosive run rate: he keeps the pocket clean, converts the first down when he pulls it, and occasionally breaks one for 58 yards (his long in 2025). His 72nd-percentile YPC (7.7 yards per carry) confirms this isn't volume padding. Through the air, the picture is more complicated — 38th-percentile pass success rate, 44th-percentile explosive pass rate — pointing to a quarterback whose arm is an asset but whose eyes and timing still have room to grow. In 2026, the gap between his rushing ceiling and his passing floor is the whole story.
Our classifier reads him the same way: extends plays with his feet until something opens up.
Returning starter at quarterback for a 6-6 Kansas State team that went -6 in the portal.
Player DNA
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
His 2026 production profile sits closest to Brendon Lewis’s 2024 season.
Matches Brendon on
Differs from Brendon on
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ben Wooldridge’s path through Louisiana.
Matches Ben on
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Brendon Lewis's senior season at Nevada (2024).
Differs from Brendon on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #16 this season.
CAREER HONORS • 2025 Maxwell Award watch list • 2025 Davey O'Brien Award watch list • 2024 Davey O’Brien Award Great 8 List (Arizona, Oklahoma State) • 2024 Manning Award Star of the Week (Oklahoma State) • 2024 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week (Oklahoma State) • 2024 Maxwell Award watch…