Kansas State travels to Cincinnati. No market line yet; the model gives Kansas State a 73% shot.
What’s at stake
Cincinnati
- Cincinnati is the program that made the CFP in 2021 as a Group of 5 team and now must prove the move from American to Big 12 was worth it.
Kansas State
- A win puts Kansas State a step closer to a 3% shot at the CFP field.
- Kansas State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Cincinnati leads the series 4-3
7 meetings since 1951 · Kansas State has won the last 3
- 2024Kansas State 41–15
- 1996Kansas State 35–0
- 1995Kansas State 23–21
- 1966Cincinnati 28–14
- 1965Cincinnati 21–14
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Kansas State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans have heard their program called a Snyder-only fluke for thirty years — that without one coach K-State reverts to the bottom. They believe the patience and the toughness are the program, not the man, and the 6-6 year just gave the doubters their opening again.
What this game touches
The 2025 stumble and Klieman's exit. K-State opened 2025 ranked No. 17, then went 6-6 and declined a bowl amid a coaching change, injuries and portal losses. Chris Klieman retired after the regular season — an unexpected handoff that left Manhattan steadying itself rather than contending, the program's first bowl-less year since 2020.
Cincinnati
The chip · vs the committeeBearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff — so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in — and they say the people who tried to keep them out still haven't given them full credit for kicking down the door.
What this game touches
Proving the Big 12 move was worth it. After the 2021 breakthrough, Cincinnati's Power-conference reality has been a grind — a 5-7 missed bowl in 2024, then a 7-6 in 2025 capped by a 35-13 Liberty Bowl loss to Navy — with the fanbase still waiting for the Big 12 to feel like the upgrade it was sold as.
Best players
Cincinnati
- Jonathan Thompson (LB) · 2025: 67 tackles
- Trevon Gola-Callard (S) · 2025: 67 tackles
- Jack Dingle (LB) · 2025: 51 tackles
Kansas State
- Desmond Purnell (LB) · 2025: 72 tackles
- Joe Jackson (RB) · 2025: 911 rushing yards
- Avery Johnson (QB) · 2025: 2,380 passing yards — Heisman odds: 36th (+5000)
The line, and the room
Cincinnati fans are feeling better about their season (55th percentile) than Kansas State fans are (33rd) — even with Kansas State favored here.
Conditions
Cincinnati is 77% at home, 61% on the road since 2018 (40-12 home, 25-16 away).