Houston 35-16 Kansas State (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Houston · Kansas State

No. 22 Houston5-135

Kansas State3-216Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kan. · Crowd 51,569

No. 22 Houston beat Kansas State 35-16.

We had Houston favored. It won.

Next: Houston beat Oklahoma State 35-32, Sat Oct 17

Next: Kansas State beat Kansas 35-24, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

"And they are finishing all over the Wildcats" DUDE PHRASING

Q2 3:44 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3 (Q2, 9:52). Houston went from 56% to 76% to win. Fans right then: “That sack juke was so sick lmao, Weigman has to use that for everything for the rest of his days” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

Houston won by 19, after dipping to 38% in the first quarter.

Kansas State never had better than a 62% chance.

FinalHouston 35-16 Kansas StateHouston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:204th and 1Weigman 1-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston goes ahead 7-0Houston 44% → 61% (+17)
2Q2 9:52Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3Houston 56% → 76% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 9:204th and 1Weigman 1-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston goes ahead 7-0Kansas State 56% → 39% (−17)
2Q2 9:52Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3Kansas State 44% → 24% (−20)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 9:55Kansas State burns timeout, allowing Houston to score touchdownThank you Collin Klein. Gorgeous TO call. Excellent, no notes.r/CFB game thread
Q1 3:53Houston's field goal attempt hits the upright as Kansas State fans celebrate the doinkWe've got a doink! Whoever called a weird game nailed it.r/CFB game threadForgot Michael Bishop coaches at Houston nowr/CFB game thread
Q2 9:52The quarterback used a juke move in the backfield to keep the play alive.That sack juke was so sick lmao, Weigman has to use that for everything for the rest of his daysr/CFB game thread
Q2 3:44Houston fans celebrate Hughes touchdown as Kansas State fans lament defensive collapseQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 9:23Weigman throws touchdown pass to Overmyer as Houston extends leadTD Coogs. This is turning into an ass-whoopin' !!!!r/CFB game thread

Houston’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Kansas State -2.5), at 38% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kansas State or Houston flair (447 and 350); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Houston scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Kansas State on 3 of its 10.

Houston’s drives are teal, Kansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Not used to the commentators glazing my team”

A Houston fan

When fans got loud

Busy

It was the first quarter that had fans talking the most.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Houston fans

weigman“I still remember the day when I first heard that Weigman could transfer to us 😞”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, next, call, look.

What it cost

Houston’s chance to make the playoff rose from 11% to 16%.

Make the playoff

Houston · won11% → ▲16%

Kansas State · lost2% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Houston · won9% → ▲12%

Kansas State · lost2% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Houston 35, Kansas State 16

Houston covered +2.5 by 21.5. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.

Team totals	Houston	Kansas State
Total yards	475	299
Passing	19 of 30, 242 yds	16 of 30, 182 yds
Rushing	43 for 233 yds	29 for 117 yds
First downs	26	19
Third down	7 of 14	6 of 13
Fourth down	3 of 3	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	8 for 74 yds	4 for 49 yds
Time of possession	34:49	25:11

Houston leaders

Passing Conner Weigman 19 of 30, 242 yds, 4 TD
Rushing Re'Shaun Sanford II 20 for 90 yds; Makhi Hughes 14 for 78 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Patrick Overmyer 8 for 83 yds, 4 TD; Trent Walker 5 for 60 yds

Kansas State leaders

Passing Avery Johnson 16 of 30, 182 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Rodney Fields Jr. 14 for 46 yds; Avery Johnson 9 for 39 yds
Receiving Garrett Oakley 3 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Rodney Fields Jr. 2 for 36 yds

No rain, gusts to 31 mph

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the south-southwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 31

A 31 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 94% of games since 2018.

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

The usual here around this date is 66°, with about 7 in 10 games between 54° and 76°.

October game-day temperatures at Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left2:42 p.m.

Houston 0, Kansas State 0 · Kansas State 62% to win

no rain · wind 17 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 31 · 88°

Weigman 12-yd pass to Overmyer

Measured at Manhattan airport, 6.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Houston · 4-1

Rated 20th in our preseason ratings, 14th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 27-17 vs UCF #67 of 668

won by 10 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 42-28 @ Georgia Southern #84 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 26-28 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 77-6 vs Southern #198 of 668

won by 71 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 33-20 vs Oregon State #67 of 668

won by 13 as a 21-point favorite

Last 4 games

Kansas State · 3-1

Rated 32nd in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 26-31 @ Cincinnati #95 of 668

lost by 5 as a 6-point favorite

W 31-20 vs Tulane #74 of 668

won by 11 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 34-7 vs Washington State #42 of 668

won by 27 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 71-3 vs Nicholls #158 of 668

won by 68 as a 41.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kansas State

Wk 1Wvs Nicholls71-3
Wk 2Wvs Washington State34-7
Wk 3Wvs Tulane31-20
Wk 4Lat Cincinnati26-31

Houston

Wk 1Wvs Oregon State33-20
Wk 2Wvs Southern77-6
Wk 3Lat Texas Tech26-28
Wk 4Wat Georgia Southern42-28
Wk 5Wvs UCF27-17

Power rating by week

Houston is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Houston’s rushing EPA against Kansas State, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Houston’s rushing EPA against Kansas State’s defense
Houston offense, 84th percentile · Kansas State defense, 21st
Kansas State’s EPA/play against Houston’s defense
Kansas State offense, 84th percentile · Houston defense, 34th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

HoustonKansas State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2023 · Houston won the last meeting

2024Houston 24-19
2023Kansas State 41-0

Each line is Kansas State’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Houston fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Kansas State favored by 2.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Kansas State by 2.5, on the usual path until Q2 9:52

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kansas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

65% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 659 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Kansas State13th0-1
Houston8th1-1

Full Big 12 standings

No. 22 Houston beats Kansas State 35-16