HOU No. 22 Houston5-1 35 KSU Kansas State 3-2 16 Final No. 22 Houston beat Kansas State 35-16. Share this game
We had Houston favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
"And they are finishing all over the Wildcats" DUDE PHRASING
Q2 3:44 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10 How it swung Watch the plays Drives What it cost Box score Weather Before kickoff How it swung The turning point: Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3 (Q2, 9:52). Houston went from 56% to 76% to win. Fans right then: “That sack juke was so sick lmao, Weigman has to use that for everything for the rest of his days” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.
Houston won by 19, after dipping to 38% in the first quarter.
Kansas State never had better than a 62% chance.
Final Houston 35-16 Kansas State Houston won Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. Final Kansas State 16-35 Houston Kansas State lost Move across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play. 50% 75% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 92% at half Houston Won 35-16 1 2 +17 +20 Scores Houston K. 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State Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute 50% 10% 25% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8% at half Houston Lowest 0% Lost 16-35 1 2 −17 −20 Scores K. State Houston Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute 50% 10% 25% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8% at half Houston Lowest 0% Lost 16-35 1 2 Scores K. State Houston Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 6 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 7 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 4 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 3 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 2 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 0 comments a minute Kansas State fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 5 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 4 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 3 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 1 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 0 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute Houston fans: 2 comments a minute
See it from Kansas State’s side The two plays that swung it
1 Q1 9:20 4th and 1 Weigman 1-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston goes ahead 7-0Houston 44% → 61% (+17) 2 Q2 9:52 Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3 Houston 56% → 76% (+20) The two plays that swung it
1 Q1 9:20 4th and 1 Weigman 1-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston goes ahead 7-0Kansas State 56% → 39% (−17) 2 Q2 9:52 Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer, Houston leads 14-3 Kansas State 44% → 24% (−20) What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 9:55 Kansas State burns timeout, allowing Houston to score touchdown Thank you Collin Klein. Gorgeous TO call. Excellent, no notes. r/CFB game thread Q1 3:53 Houston's field goal attempt hits the upright as Kansas State fans celebrate the doink We've got a doink! Whoever called a weird game nailed it. r/CFB game thread Forgot Michael Bishop coaches at Houston now r/CFB game thread Q2 9:52 The quarterback used a juke move in the backfield to keep the play alive. That sack juke was so sick lmao, Weigman has to use that for everything for the rest of his days r/CFB game thread Q2 3:44 Houston fans celebrate Hughes touchdown as Kansas State fans lament defensive collapse Quoted at the top of the page. Q3 9:23 Weigman throws touchdown pass to Overmyer as Houston extends lead TD Coogs. This is turning into an ass-whoopin' !!!! r/CFB game thread Houston’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chart Starts from the pregame line (Kansas State -2.5), at 38% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kansas State or Houston flair (447 and 350); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to. Watch the plays The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
Play all in order Q1, 9:20 Weigman 1-yd TD pass to Overmyer Houston goes ahead 7-0 Q1, 9:20 · Houston 7, Kansas State 0 ▲17% Houston’s chance to win, 44% to 61% ▲17% Houston’s chance to win, 44% to 61% ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q2, 9:52 Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer Houston leads 14-3 Q2, 9:52 · Houston 14, Kansas State 3 ▲20% Houston’s chance to win, 56% to 76% ▲20% Houston’s chance to win, 56% to 76% ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q2, 9:09 Johnson sacked for a 1-yd loss Q2, 9:09 · Houston 14, Kansas State 3 ▲4% Houston’s chance to win, 72% to 76% ▲4% Houston’s chance to win, 72% to 76% ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q2, 3:17 Hughes 13-yd TD run Houston leads 21-3 Q2, 3:17 · Houston 21, Kansas State 3 ▲13% Houston’s chance to win, 79% to 92% ▲13% Houston’s chance to win, 79% to 92% ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q3, 9:23 Weigman 8-yd TD pass to Overmyer Houston leads 28-3 Q3, 9:23 · Houston 28, Kansas State 3 28-3 score after the play 28-3 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q3, 6:11 Johnson 13-yd TD pass to Oakley cuts it to 28-9 Q3, 6:11 · Houston 28, Kansas State 9 28-9 score after the play 28-9 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q3, 0:48 Weigman 2-yd TD pass to Overmyer Houston leads 35-9 Q3, 0:48 · Houston 35, Kansas State 9 35-9 score after the play 35-9 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q4, 11:09 Johnson intercepted by Allen at the Houston 10 Q4, 11:09 · Houston 35, Kansas State 9 35-9 score after the play 35-9 score after the play ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference Q4, 3:39 Johnson 6-yd TD pass to Tibbs cuts it to 35-16 Q4, 3:39 · Houston 35, Kansas State 16 ▲3% Houston’s chance to win, 97% to 100% ▲3% Houston’s chance to win, 97% to 100% ▶ Watch from this playBig 12 Conference
Every drive Houston scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Kansas State on 3 of its 10.
Houston’s drives are teal, Kansas State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
own goal goal line Q1 Houston: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Kansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 59 Punt Houston: Missed field goal, from 80 yards out to 16 Missed FG Kansas State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 11 Field goal Q2 Houston: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0 Touchdown Kansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 48 Punt Houston: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0 Touchdown Kansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57 Punt Houston: Punt, from 85 yards out to 78 Punt Kansas State: End of half, from 80 yards out to 79 End of half Q3 Kansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63 Punt Houston: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0 Touchdown Kansas State: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0 Touchdown Houston: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0 Touchdown Kansas State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75 Punt Houston: Punt, from 68 yards out to 56 Punt Q4 Kansas State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 10 Interception Houston: Punt, from 88 yards out to 79 Punt Kansas State: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0 Touchdown Houston: End of game, from 41 yards out to 28 End of game “Not used to the commentators glazing my team” A Houston fan When fans got loud Busy
It was the first quarter that had fans talking the most.
Jump to the loudest stretch
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
First Second Third Fourth Houston fans Kansas State fans usual Two crowds, one game The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Houston fans
weigman “I still remember the day when I first heard that Weigman could transfer to us 😞”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, next, call, look.
What it cost Houston’s chance to make the playoff rose from 11% to 16%.
Make the playoff
Houston · won 11% → ▲ 16% 11% ▲ 16%
Kansas State · lost 2% → ▼ 0%
Win the conference
Houston · won 9% → ▲ 12% 9% ▲ 12%
Kansas State · lost 2% → ▼ 0%
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score Houston 35, Kansas State 16
Houston covered +2.5 by 21.5. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.
Houston Kansas State Total yards Houston 475 Kansas State 299 475 299 Passing yards Houston 242 Kansas State 182 242 182 Rushing yards Houston 233 Kansas State 117 233 117 First downs Houston 26 Kansas State 19 26 19 Turnovers Houston 0 Kansas State 1 0 1 Time of possession Houston 34:49 Kansas State 25:11 34:49 25:11 Team totals Houston Kansas State Total yards 475 299 Passing 19 of 30, 242 yds 16 of 30, 182 yds Rushing 43 for 233 yds 29 for 117 yds First downs 26 19 Third down 7 of 14 6 of 13 Fourth down 3 of 3 0 of 0 Turnovers 0 1 Penalties 8 for 74 yds 4 for 49 yds Time of possession 34:49 25:11
Houston leaders Passing Conner Weigman 19 of 30, 242 yds, 4 TDRushing Re'Shaun Sanford II 20 for 90 yds; Makhi Hughes 14 for 78 yds, 1 TDReceiving Patrick Overmyer 8 for 83 yds, 4 TD; Trent Walker 5 for 60 ydsKansas State leaders Passing Avery Johnson 16 of 30, 182 yds, 2 TD, 1 INTRushing Rodney Fields Jr. 14 for 46 yds; Avery Johnson 9 for 39 ydsReceiving Garrett Oakley 3 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Rodney Fields Jr. 2 for 36 ydsNo rain, gusts to 31 mph 88° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 15 mph from the south-southwest, mostly along the field, gusts to 31
A 31 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 94% of games since 2018.
Every game's peak, with this game marked typical game 16 mph This game: 31 mph 0 60 mph Every game's peak, with this game marked typical game 16 mph This game: 31 mph 0 60 mph Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 66°, with about 7 in 10 games between 54° and 76°.
October game-day temperatures at Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Kansas State favored Houston favored 0% Win chance Kansas State Rain inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind mph, average and gusts 20 mph 40 mph 31 mph gust Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game time Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Kansas State favored Houston favored Rain · inches per 10 min 0.1 in No rain recorded Wind · miles per hour 20 40 31 mph gust Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:49 left2:42 p.m.
Houston 0, Kansas State 0 · Kansas State 62% to win
no rain · wind 17 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 31 · 88°
Weigman 12-yd pass to Overmyer
Previous play Next play
Jump to Strongest gust: 31 mph · first Biggest swing: 20 points of win chance · second Where this weather comes from Measured at Manhattan airport, 6.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Matchups Biggest mismatch: Houston’s rushing EPA against Kansas State, 63 points Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Houston’s rushing EPA against Kansas State’s defense
63 points weaker stronger 50th Houston offense, 84th percentile · Kansas State defense, 21st
Kansas State’s EPA/play against Houston’s defense
50 points weaker stronger 50th Kansas State offense, 84th percentile · Houston defense, 34th
Season profile, all the rows Season profile Houston Kansas State
EPA/play, offense
Houston · 99 Kansas State · 84 EPA/play, defense
Houston · 34 Kansas State · 55 Success rate, offense
Houston · 100 Kansas State · 90 Success rate, defense
Houston · 54 Kansas State · 88 Explosive-play rate, offense
Houston · 9 Kansas State · 32 Explosive-play rate, defense
Houston · 18 Kansas State · 5 Rush EPA, offense
Houston · 84 Kansas State · 94 Rush EPA, defense
Houston · 70 Kansas State · 21 Pass EPA, offense
Houston · 97 Kansas State · 63 Pass EPA, defense
Houston · 29 Kansas State · 72 The series The series is tied 1-1
2 meetings since 2023 · Houston won the last meeting
2024 Houston 24-19 Kansas State lost 19-24 at Houston. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 98%. 2023 Kansas State 41-0 Kansas State won 41-0 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 89%, low 86%, high better than 99%. Each line is Kansas State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field The betting line, and the fans Houston fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (83rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
50-50 Model · 38% Houston fans · 83rd Houston Kansas State Model · 38% Line · 58% Kansas State fans · 7th Houston fans · 83rd Kansas State favored by 2.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go Kansas State by 2.5, on the usual path until Q2 9:52 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 50% 90% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Half of games 8 in 10 games This game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field Kansas State is worth +5.3 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.
65% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why ); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 659 miles to get here.