Houston 35-32 Oklahoma State (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Oklahoma State · Houston

No. 18 Oklahoma State4-232

No. 20 Houston6-135Final

Sat, Oct 17 · TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas · Crowd 42,544

No. 20 Houston beat No. 18 Oklahoma State 35-32.

We had Houston favored. It won.

Next: Oklahoma State vs Colorado, Sat Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Oklahoma State favored by 12.5

Next: Houston at Utah, Sat Oct 24 · 10:15 PM ET · Houston underdog by 6.5

Top comment in the game thread

Weigman is on point tonight. Great passing

Q2 2:22 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Mestemaker 66-yd TD pass to Hawkins, two-point try good, cuts it to 28-25 (Q4, 11:57). Houston went from 93% to 77% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Houston a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (Houston was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Favored the whole way: Houston never fell below 56%.

Oklahoma State never had better than a 43% chance.

FinalHouston 35-32 Oklahoma StateHouston wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 11:57Mestemaker 66-yd TD pass to Hawkins, two-point try good, cuts it to 28-25Houston 93% → 77% (−16)
2Q4 9:48PenaltyWeigman 48-yd TD pass to Young; kick attempt good penalty osu leverage on J.DimasHouston 80% → 93% (+13)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 11:57Mestemaker 66-yd TD pass to Hawkins, two-point try good, cuts it to 28-25Oklahoma State 7% → 23% (+16)
2Q4 9:48PenaltyWeigman 48-yd TD pass to Young; kick attempt good penalty osu leverage on J.DimasOklahoma State 20% → 7% (−13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 2:22Weigman throws touchdown pass to Thomas as Houston extends leadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 10:18A defensive player attempted a blindside block.I mean blind side block…. On defense? Really??r/CFB game thread

Houston’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Houston -4), at 73% for Houston (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Houston or Oklahoma State flair (611 and 753); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Houston’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Houston scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Oklahoma State on 5 of its 9.

Houston’s drives are teal, Oklahoma State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Oklahoma State’s side

Oklahoma State’s best moment: Mestemaker 66-yd TD pass to Hawkins, two-point try good, cuts it to 28-25 (Q4 11:57). It lifted Oklahoma State’s win chance by 16 points.

How Oklahoma State fans took it: “hell of a game, great showing from both qbs but that cowboy defense is gonna kill me” r/CFB game thread

“If only we had kicked the FG earlier”

An Oklahoma State fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Houston’s chance to make the playoff rose from 19% to 21%.

Make the playoff

Oklahoma State · lost0% → 0%

Houston · won19% → ▲21%

Win the conference

Oklahoma State · lost0% → 0%

Houston · won14% → ▲16%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Houston plays at Utah on Sat Oct 24 with a 21% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Houston 35, Oklahoma State 32

Oklahoma State covered +4 by 1. The total, 67, went over 62.5.

Team totals	Oklahoma State	Houston
Total yards	499	505
Passing	22 of 34, 365 yds	24 of 33, 343 yds
Rushing	25 for 134 yds	40 for 162 yds
First downs	25	26
Third down	3 of 8	7 of 13
Fourth down	1 of 2	3 of 3
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	9 for 71 yds	5 for 60 yds
Time of possession	24:48	35:12

Oklahoma State leaders

Passing Drew Mestemaker 22 of 34, 365 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Caleb Hawkins 17 for 68 yds; Drew Mestemaker 6 for 34 yds
Receiving Caleb Hawkins 7 for 125 yds, 1 TD; Wyatt Young 5 for 99 yds, 1 TD

Houston leaders

Passing Conner Weigman 24 of 33, 343 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Makhi Hughes 18 for 77 yds; Conner Weigman 11 for 52 yds
Receiving Amare Thomas 7 for 126 yds, 2 TD; Trent Walker 7 for 104 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

68° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 76°, with about 7 in 10 games between 65° and 85°.

October game-day temperatures at TDECU Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 11:57 left9:31 p.m.

Oklahoma State 25, Houston 28 · Houston 77% to win

no rain · 64°

Mestemaker 66-yd TD pass to Hawkins, two-point try good, cuts it to 28-25

Measured at Houston Dunn airport, 2.8 miles away, and Houston/will Hobby airport, 7.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oklahoma State · 4-1

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 117th now, up 145 spots.

Three straight wins, including a 17-point win over West Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 42-28 vs UCF #65 of 668

won by 14 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 41-24 @ West Virginia #150 of 668

won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

W 59-0 vs Murray State #260 of 668

won by 59 as a 56.5-point favorite

W 39-31 vs OregonTop 25 #5 of 668

won by 8 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 10-24 @ Tulsa #113 of 668

lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games

Houston · 5-1

Rated 20th in our preseason ratings, 11th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 19-point win over Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 35-16 @ Kansas State #42 of 668

won by 19 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 27-17 vs UCF #67 of 668

won by 10 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 42-28 @ Georgia Southern #84 of 668

won by 14 as a 17.5-point favorite

L 26-28 @ Texas TechTop 25 #7 of 668

lost by 2 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 77-6 vs Southern #198 of 668

won by 71 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 33-20 vs Oregon State #67 of 668

won by 13 as a 21-point favorite

Week by week

Houston

Wk 2Wvs Southern77-6
Wk 3Lat Texas Tech26-28
Wk 4Wat Georgia Southern42-28
Wk 5Wvs UCF27-17
Wk 6Wat Kansas State35-16

Oklahoma State

Wk 1Lat Tulsa10-24
Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0
Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24
Wk 6Wvs UCF42-28

Power rating by week

Houston is rated 13.4 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against Houston, 64 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against Houston’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 93rd percentile · Houston defense, 29th
Houston’s explosive plays against Oklahoma State’s defense
Houston offense, 9th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 66th
Houston’s EPA/play against Oklahoma State’s defense
Houston offense, 99th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 53rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Oklahoma StateHouston

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Houston leads the series 11-10-1

22 meetings since 1951 · Houston won the last meeting

2025Houston 39-17
2023Oklahoma State 43-30
2009Houston 45-35
2008Oklahoma State 56-37
2006Houston 34-25

Each line is Houston’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Houston fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (78th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Houston favored by 4 · Total 62.5

How games like this usually go

Houston by 4, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Houston.

The total rose 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Houston has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.7 points (±3.6), home against road — 0th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 57% on the road against FBS opponents (24-20 home, 27-20 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 453 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Houston6th2-1
Oklahoma State4th2-0

Full Big 12 standings

No. 20 Houston upsets No. 18 Oklahoma State 35-32