Oklahoma State beats West Virginia 41-24

Oklahoma State3-141
West Virginia3-124Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W.Va. · Crowd 57,756FS1

Oklahoma State beat West Virginia 41-24.

We had West Virginia favored. Oklahoma State won.

Top comment in the game thread

Getting absolutely smoked by a white WR named Wyatt is a fireable offense, Zac Alley

Q4 5:42 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Hawkins 22-yd TD run, Oklahoma State goes ahead 28-24 (Q3, 2:40). Oklahoma State went from 34% to 57% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma State a 29% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.

Oklahoma State came back from 11 down, at one point just a 10% chance in the second quarter.

West Virginia led by 11, was as high as 90% in the second quarter, and still lost.

FinalOklahoma State 41-24 West VirginiaOklahoma State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q437% at halfWest VirginiaLowest 10%Won41-2412+23+19ScoresO. StateW. VirginiaOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 12 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minute
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q437% at halfLowest 10%Won41-2412ScoresO. StateWest Vi…Oklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 12 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minute
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q463% at halfWest VirginiaHigh 90%Lost24-4112−23−19ScoresW. VirginiaO. StateWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 12 comments a minute
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q463% at halfHigh 90%Lost24-4112ScoresWest Vi…O. StateWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 0 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 7 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 2 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 8 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 6 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 5 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 3 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 4 comments a minuteWest Virginia fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 0 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 1 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 4 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 2 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 3 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 9 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 6 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 5 comments a minuteOklahoma State fans: 12 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 2:40Hawkins 22-yd TD run, Oklahoma State goes ahead 28-24Oklahoma State 34% → 57% (+23)
  2. 2Q3 0:394th and 1Latimer run for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsOklahoma State 54% → 73% (+19)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 2:40Hawkins 22-yd TD run, Oklahoma State goes ahead 28-24West Virginia 66% → 43% (−23)
  2. 2Q3 0:394th and 1Latimer run for a 2-yd loss, turnover on downsWest Virginia 46% → 27% (−19)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 3:47Hawkins pass intercepted by Phillips as OSU fans celebrate the turnoverDesperately needed that pick.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 5:42Mestemaker throws touchdown to Wyatt Young, making it 38-24Quoted at the top of the page.We’re not playing well defensively but Mestemaker also looks like a pror/CFB game thread
Oklahoma State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (West Virginia -1.5), at 34% for Oklahoma State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a West Virginia or Oklahoma State flair (665 and 521); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:44Hawkins 5-yd TD runWest Virginia goes ahead 7-0Q1, 7:44 · Oklahoma State 0, West Virginia 7▼2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 24% to 22%▼2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 24% to 22%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q2, 11:52Hawkins 3-yd TD runWest Virginia leads 14-3Q2, 11:52 · Oklahoma State 3, West Virginia 14▼5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 14%▼5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 14%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q2, 3:47Hawkins intercepted by Phillips at the OSU15returned 30 yardsQ2, 3:47 · Oklahoma State 6, West Virginia 14▲9%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 12% to 21%▲9%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 12% to 21%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q2, 1:25Mestemaker 21-yd TD pass to Bowickcuts it to 14-13Q2, 1:25 · Oklahoma State 13, West Virginia 14▲2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 25% to 27%▲2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 25% to 27%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q3, 13:25Mestemaker intercepted by Wilson at the WVU15Q3, 13:25 · Oklahoma State 13, West Virginia 14▼10%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 43% to 33%▼10%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 43% to 33%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q3, 11:06Hawkins 9-yd TD runWest Virginia leads 21-13Q3, 11:06 · Oklahoma State 13, West Virginia 21▼7%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 25% to 18%▼7%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 25% to 18%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q3, 2:40Hawkins 22-yd TD runOklahoma State goes ahead 28-24Q3, 2:40 · Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 24▲23%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 34% to 57%▲23%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 34% to 57%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. Q4, 5:42Mestemaker 6-yd TD pass to YoungOklahoma State leads 38-24Q4, 5:42 · Oklahoma State 38, West Virginia 24▲5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 90% to 95%▲5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 90% to 95%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Oklahoma State scored on 8 of its 12 drives; West Virginia on 4 of its 11.

Oklahoma State’s drives are teal, West Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1West Virginia: Punt, from 0 yards out to 0PuntOklahoma State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 48PuntWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 95 yards out to 0TouchdownOklahoma State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 12Field goalWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Oklahoma State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 1Field goalWest Virginia: Interception, from 64 yards out to 18InterceptionOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntOklahoma State: Punt, from 86 yards out to 81PuntQ3Oklahoma State: Interception, from 80 yards out to 21InterceptionWest Virginia: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 9Field goalOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 42DownsOklahoma State: Field goal, from 58 yards out to 11Field goalQ4West Virginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 49DownsOklahoma State: Field goal, from 51 yards out to 29Field goalWest Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 17DownsOklahoma State: End of game, from 83 yards out to 87End of game

From West Virginia’s side

West Virginia’s best moment: 43-yd punt (Q1 9:25). It lifted West Virginia’s win chance by 12 points.

How West Virginia fans took it: “Dude you keep supporting me as I’m trolling my team. Thank you for staying wholesome lol” r/CFB game thread

“It’s so nice to feel excitement instead of dread when our QB throws a deep ball”
An Oklahoma State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

FirstSecondThirdFourthOklahoma State fansWest Virginia fansusual

The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

West Virginia’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%
West Virginia · lost1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Oklahoma State · won0% → 0%
West Virginia · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24

Oklahoma State covered +1.5 by 18.5. The total, 65, went over 60.5.

Oklahoma StateWest VirginiaTotal yardsOklahoma State 609West Virginia 467609467Passing yardsOklahoma State 389West Virginia 132389132Rushing yardsOklahoma State 220West Virginia 335220335First downsOklahoma State 25West Virginia 292529TurnoversOklahoma State 1West Virginia 111Time of possessionOklahoma State 28:56West Virginia 31:0428:5631:04
Team totalsOklahoma StateWest Virginia
Total yards609467
Passing20 of 27, 389 yds10 of 22, 132 yds
Rushing41 for 220 yds66 for 335 yds
First downs2529
Third down2 of 109 of 17
Fourth down0 of 00 of 3
Turnovers11
Penalties9 for 88 yds3 for 12 yds
Time of possession28:5631:04

Oklahoma State leaders

  • Passing Drew Mestemaker 20 of 27, 389 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Caleb Hawkins 31 for 180 yds, 1 TD; Ayo Adeyi 6 for 44 yds
  • Receiving Wyatt Young 8 for 192 yds, 1 TD; Justin Bowick 4 for 63 yds, 1 TD

West Virginia leaders

  • Passing Michael Hawkins Jr. 10 of 22, 132 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Cam Cook 29 for 193 yds; Michael Hawkins Jr. 28 for 103 yds, 3 TD
  • Receiving DJ Epps 2 for 39 yds; John Neider 2 for 34 yds

No rain and calm

67° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 14

September game-day temperatures at Milan Puskar Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4West Virginia favoredOklahoma State favored0%Win chanceWest VirginiaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4West Virginia favoredOklahoma State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 2:40 left9:26 p.m.
Oklahoma State 28, West Virginia 24 · West Virginia 43% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the north, mostly along the field · 63°
Hawkins 22-yd TD run, Oklahoma State goes ahead 28-24

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Morgantown/hart Fld airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Oklahoma State · 2-1

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 192nd now, up 70 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 8-point win over Oregon as a 24.5-point underdog.

W 59-0 vs Murray State #260 of 668

won by 59 as a 56.5-point favorite

Oklahoma State won 59-0 vs Murray State. Never in doubt.

Last three games

West Virginia · 3-0

Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 137th now, up 45 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 11-point win over Virginia as a 10.5-point underdog.

Week by week

West Virginia

Wk 1: W 31-24 vs Coastal Carolina▲7Coastal CarolinaWk 2: W 52-7 vs UT Martin▲45UT MartinWk 3: W 38-27 at Virginia▲11Virginia
  • Wk 1Wvs Coastal Carolina31-24
  • Wk 2Wvs UT Martin52-7
  • Wk 3Wat Virginia38-27

Oklahoma State

Wk 1: L 10-24 at Tulsa▼14TulsaWk 2: W 39-31 vs Oregon▲8OregonWk 3: W 59-0 vs Murray State▲59Murray State
  • Wk 1Lat Tulsa10-24
  • Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
  • Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0

Power rating by week

West Virginia is rated 3.0 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-4-9-14Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3West VirginiaOklahoma State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against West Virginia, 93 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Oklahoma State’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense

    93 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Oklahoma State offense, 93rd percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th

  2. Oklahoma State’s EPA/play against West Virginia’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Oklahoma State offense, 78th percentile · West Virginia defense, 3rd

  3. West Virginia’s explosive plays against Oklahoma State’s defense

    17 pointsweakerstronger50th

    West Virginia offense, 83rd percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 66th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Oklahoma StateWest Virginia
EPA/play, offense
Oklahoma State · 78West Virginia · 73
EPA/play, defense
Oklahoma State · 53West Virginia · 3
Success rate, offense
Oklahoma State · 95West Virginia · 58
Success rate, defense
Oklahoma State · 47West Virginia · 6
Explosive-play rate, offense
Oklahoma State…West Virginia · 83
Explosive-play rate, defense
Oklahoma State · 66West Virginia · 19
Rush EPA, offense
Oklahoma State · 41West Virginia · 66
Rush EPA, defense
Oklahoma State · 74West Virginia · 33
Pass EPA, offense
Oklahoma State · 93West Virginia · 83
Pass EPA, defense
Oklahoma State · 59West Virginia · 0

The series

Oklahoma State leads the series 10-6

16 meetings since 1928 · West Virginia won the last meeting

West Virginia wonOklahoma State won1928: West Virginia by 261929: West Virginia by 31987: Oklahoma State by 22012: Oklahoma State by 212013: West Virginia by 92014: West Virginia by 242015: Oklahoma State by 72016: Oklahoma State by 172017: Oklahoma State by 112018: Oklahoma State by 42019: Oklahoma State by 72020: Oklahoma State by 142021: Oklahoma State by 212022: West Virginia by 52023: Oklahoma State by 142024: West Virginia by 2419282024
  • 2024West Virginia 38-14West Virginia won 38-14 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 47%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Oklahoma State 48-34West Virginia lost 34-48 vs Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 3%, high 84%.
  • 2022West Virginia 24-19West Virginia won 24-19 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 29%, low 24%, high 92%.
  • 2021Oklahoma State 24-3West Virginia lost 3-24 vs Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 36%, low 1%, high 57%.
  • 2020Oklahoma State 27-13West Virginia lost 13-27 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 44%.

Each line is West Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting. West Virginia is 1-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

West Virginia fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 71%
  • Line · 55%
  • West Virginia fans · 66th
  • Oklahoma State fans · 74th

West Virginia favored by 1.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

West Virginia by 1.5, on the usual path until 10:01 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward West Virginia.

opened +2.5now −1.5

The total rose 3 points.

opened 57.5now 60.5

Spread: +2.5 → −1.5 · Total: 57.5 → 60.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 65° at kickoff.

Oklahoma State at West Virginia · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown

  • 65°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Milan Puskar Stadium that day, a noon, 12:45 pm or 2 pm kickoff would have scored 98, against 100 at 7 pm.

  • noon: 98, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 98, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 4 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 5 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

West Virginia is worth +4.0 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 50th percentile.

56% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (25-20 home, 16-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.7 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 963 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Our History pages cover 4 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big 12 standings