Oregon at Oklahoma State
Fan take
Oregon fans
Oklahoma State fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Oregon · 13-2
Picked #2 in the preseason · now #1 — about right.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 23-point win over Texas Tech as a 1-point underdog.
L 22–56 @ IndianaTop 25 #1 of 668
lost by 34 as a 3-point underdog
W 23–0 @ Texas TechTop 25 #6 of 668
won by 23 as a 1-point underdog
W 51–34 vs James MadisonTop 25 #14 of 668
won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 26–14 @ WashingtonTop 25 #19 of 668
won by 12 as a 7-point favorite
W 42–27 vs USCTop 25 #20 of 668
won by 15 as a 11-point favorite
W 42–13 vs Minnesota #69 of 668
won by 29 as a 27-point favorite
W 18–16 @ IowaTop 25 #21 of 668
won by 2 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 21–7 vs Wisconsin #78 of 668
won by 14 as a 31-point favorite
W 56–10 @ Rutgers #85 of 668
won by 46 as a 18.5-point favorite
L 20–30 vs IndianaTop 25 #4 of 668
lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 30–24 @ Penn StateTop 25 #5 of 668
won by 6 as a 4-point underdog
W 41–7 vs Oregon State #95 of 668
won by 34 as a 34.5-point favorite
W 34–14 @ Northwestern #57 of 668
won by 20 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 69–3 vs Oklahoma State #86 of 668
won by 66 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 59–13 vs Montana State #55 of 668
won by 46 as a 28.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Oklahoma State · 1-11
Picked #264 in the preseason · now #244 — better than expected.
Three straight losses.
L 13–20 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #41 of 668
lost by 7 as a 14-point underdog
L 14–17 @ UCF #93 of 668
lost by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 6–14 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #30 of 668
lost by 8 as a 19.5-point underdog
L 21–38 @ Kansas #64 of 668
lost by 17 as a 25-point underdog
L 0–42 @ Texas TechTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 42 as a 38-point underdog
L 17–49 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #36 of 668
lost by 32 as a 23.5-point underdog
L 17–39 vs HoustonTop 25 #54 of 668
lost by 22 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 13–41 @ ArizonaTop 25 #60 of 668
lost by 28 as a 23.5-point underdog
L 27–45 vs Baylor #21 of 668
lost by 18 as a 21.5-point underdog
L 12–19 vs Tulsa #100 of 668
lost by 7 as a 10-point favorite
L 3–69 @ OregonTop 25 #4 of 668
lost by 66 as a 28.5-point underdog
W 27–7 vs UT Martin #111 of 668
What’s at stake
Oregon
- Oregon sits at 38% to make the CFP field — 39% with a win here, 26% with a loss.
- Dan Lanning is behind Bryan McClendon’s year-5 pace (1-1 vs. 2-0) — a win tonight widens the gap, a loss narrows it.
Oklahoma State
- A win would be one of Oklahoma State’s biggest of the season — a 243-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Oregon leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2008 · Oklahoma State won the last meeting
- 2026Oklahoma State 39–31
- 2025Oregon 69–3
- 2008 · neutral siteOregon 42–31
Best players
Oregon
- Koi Perich (DB) · 15 tackles
- Dante Moore (QB) · 569 passing yards — Heisman odds: 3rd (+950)
- Jeremiah McClellan (WR) · 170 receiving yards
Oklahoma State
- Wyatt Young (WR) · 205 receiving yards
- Ethan Wesloski (LB) · 16 tackles
- Tate Romney (LB) · 14 tackles
The line, and the room
Oregon fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (32nd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home +24.5 · O/U 55.5
Conditions
82°F · 4 mph wind · Heavy Rain
Oklahoma State is worth +4.5 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 60th percentile.
65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (31–17 home, 17–26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.5 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,472 miles to get here.
Oregon 31 – Oklahoma State 39
Missed — picked Oregon, Oklahoma State won.
Recent games
Oklahoma State
- Wk 1Lat Tulsa10-24
Oregon
- Wk 1Wvs Boise State34-27
Trajectory
Oklahoma State upset the pregame pick, beating Oregon 39-31.