underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Jeff Caldwell produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Cincinnati
3-0Latest
Big 12 · Scott Satterfield, year 4 (18-22) · Nippert Stadium · 40,000 · 30,370 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#98 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #42 (+8.0) · FPI #46
The marketKansas State by 6vs Kansas State · our model 29% Cincinnati · a number, not a pick
LastW 35–31 vs Miami (OH) · Sat Sep 19 · JC French 309 pass yds, 2 TD, 39 rush yds
Nextvs Kansas State · Sat Sep 26 · 7 pm ET · Nippert Stadium · Kansas State by 6 · series 4-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Cincinnati · 2026 schedule & results3-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #109 | #130 | -7✓ | Boston College | W 34–15 134 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #110 | #196 | -36.5✓ | Western Carolina | W 62–10 137 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #109 | #86 | -14.5✗ | Miami (OH) | W 35–31 132 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #102 | #27 | +6 | Kansas State | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #102 | #28 | @Arizona | ||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @West Virginia | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Texas Tech | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Utah | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Houston | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Iowa State | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Colorado | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @BYU |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Miami (OH) | W 35–31 | 446 | 1 | 33:26 | +0.235 | 49.4% | 121.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Western Carolina | W 62–10 | 690 | 0 | 32:37 | +0.574 | 63.7% | 121.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Boston College | W 34–15 | 339 | 0 | 28:41 | +0.241 | 38.7% | 125.5% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 492 | 0.3 | +0.350 | 50.6% | 123.1% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Cincinnati is the first program from outside the power structure to crash the College Football Playoff — then spent its reward, a Big 12 invitation, learning how hard it is to do it again with the bar that high.
Standard GapA 13-1 Playoff team in 2021 that beat the whole sport's gatekeeping vs…
Bearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff — so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in — and they say the people who tried to keep them out still…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Cincinnati fans
r/CFB
▲ 275 · 3d ago
Miami (OH) fans on Cincinnati
Cincinnati fans
r/CFB
▲ 2434 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel56even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 16 in the Big 12
Heart rate2-2some dramain one-score games (4 of 13)12th most one-score games of 16 in the Big 12
Margin+4.7competitiveavg scoring margin8th best margin of 16 in the Big 12
Tempo59methodicaloffensive plays / game16th fastest of 16 in the Big 12
Big plays1.35highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)4th most explosive of 16 in the Big 12
Home crowd36,052avg attendance15th biggest crowds of 16 in the Big 12
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Cincinnati has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The ones who have the most success, like Marcus has, are ones who create an identity for themselves, not just where they've been, whether it's his time with us at Cincinnati or his time at Ohio State or his time under Jim Tressel
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs Kansas State · at home
Season line5.5 winsover +110
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlSoft
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#65 in field+40000
Big 12 title#14 in market+9000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Cincinnati · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What Cincinnati's season is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew
Tawee Walker does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
our readdeveloping
governance shockthis cycle✓ factnew
Cincinnati: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season.
our readdeveloping
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Caleb Goodie is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jeff Caldwell is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Cincinnati jumped 16 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 7-6 record is the story Scott Satterfield has to answer in the Big 12 this year.
what happenedCincinnati enters 2026 rated No. 56 in 2025 SP+ (+4.5), up 16 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Cincinnati jumped 16 spots in SP+ — the Big 12's middle-tier production returns test whether Scott Satterfield can sustain the leap under new conference scrutiny.
what happenedCincinnati enters 2025 rated No. 56 in SP+ (+4.5), up 16 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedCincinnati's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Outcome band · Cincinnati · 2026
Outcome band · Cincinnati · 2026Cincinnati's most likely season is 7-6 — a bowl game. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 9-4.
Floor 4-8Ceiling 9-4Base 7-6
0 wins13 wins
Floor4-8No postseason.
Base7-6A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Rival pulse
Miami (OH)
Bullish+33
Battle for the Victory Bell (OH)
Louisville
Very Bullish+55
Keg of Nails
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Cincinnati is the program that made the CFP in 2021 as a Group of 5 team and now must prove the move from American to Big 12 was worth it.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Soft
Open questions
Active arcs
Hot
Cincinnati and Miami (OH) set to play first game at TQL Stadium
How will Cincinnati and Miami (Ohio) perform in their first game at TQL Stadium?
Cooling
Cincinnati Bengals sign second-round pick Cashius Howell
How will Cashius Howell fit into the Bengals' defensive lineup?
Cooling
Cincinnati bengals restructure joe burrow's contract to free up $10 million in…
What will the Bengals do with the newly created cap space?
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 13Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 25.Week 12 · Lost 24-30 at home to Arizona
- 2025 · Wk 12Entered the CFP rankings
- 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 25 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 14-45 at Utah
- 2025 · Wk 10Climbed to No. 17 in the AP Top 25Week 9 · Won 41-20 at home over Baylor
- 2025 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 20-11 at home over UCF
Roster
Roster Reload - Cincinnati
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production8%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#77 nationally247 composite 634.3
Portal Additions23Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses23Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4) — 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#58Development class
RBin 3 - Cole Tabbout 4 - Evan PryorEven
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Back2025 profiledoes a little of everything without one standout trait
Sin 3 - Ty Goodwillout 4 - Jiquan SanksDowngrade
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
DLin 2 - Chidera Otutuout 4 - Kamari BurnsStarter Risk
current room: 290 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
LBin 3 - Damaine Wilsonout 1 - Cincear LewisNeed Filled
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Coverage 'Backercarries tight ends down the field in coverage
Next man up
Full roster (112 players)
CBDaniel James, Jamarion McKinney, KK Meier, Kameron Hurst, Kenny Worthy III, Mark Cannon Jr., Patrick Williams, Zay Johnson
DBAntwan Peek Jr., CJ Crite, D'Angelo Hutchinson, Jacob Finley, Landen Schaefer, Markell Taylor, Marqavious Saboor
DLCD McFee, Cameron Roetherford, Chidera Otutu, Darrius Simmons, Drew Logan, Elijah Gunn, James Early, Jaylon White-McClain, Jonathan Rulo, Josh Hough, Kamron Neal, Lance Dawson, Marquaze Parker, Nathan Nunn, Thomas Johnson
LBAdam Kirtley, Brian Simms III, Damaine Wilson, Evan Weinberg, Filip Maciorowski, George Leibold, Jaxon Newton, Jonathan Thompson, Keegan Horn, Montay Weedon, Myles Harrison, Patrick Bauer, Ronan Casanova, Simeon Coleman, Terrell Holcomb
OLAiden Pastoriza, Austin Hoane, Cray Paich, Evan Tengesdahl, Grant Edgington, JP Schrieber, Jake Wheelock, Joe Cotton, Judea Milon, Luke Collins, Luke Grover, Marcus McGregor, Nathan Zappitelli, Nolan Latulippe, Solomon Mathis, Taran Tyo, Xavier Lozowicki, Zac Clarke, Zach Taylor
RBCade Wolford, Cole Tabb, Gi'Bran Payne, James Lewis, James Minor, Jayzon Thompson, Zion Johnson, Zylan Perry
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Cincinnati
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
NCAA clears Cincinnati of wrongdoing
Satterfield's rebuild doesn't need a cloud hanging over it — NCAA clearing the program means Big 12 Year One starts clean, not on probation watch.
- News
Cincinnati avoids gambling punishment
Satterfield dodges a distraction that could've derailed a program already juggling 4 NFL exits and a DL rebuild — clean hands matter when you're trying to sell Big 12 legitimacy to recruits.
- Portal
S D'Angelo Hutchinson transfer commits from Louisville
Safety room lost Jiquan Sanks and bled four departures total with just two coming back in — Hutchinson is Scott Satterfield's answer to a gap that's been starter-deep for months, and an ACC-seasoned DB who already played high-leverage reps is exactly the profile Cincinnati needed to stop the bleed.
- News
Cincinnati releases camp defensive depth chart
Four draft departures hit the DL hardest, and the first real depth chart confirms it — Satterfield's pressure unit is still sorting itself out with camp barely underway.
- News
Cincinnati announces offensive line depth chart
Taran Tyo's position switch is the headline inside this depth chart — Satterfield's best-five puzzle had a piece out of place, and moving Tyo is the adjustment that makes the math work after losing four O-linemen to the draft.
- Recruiting
Huzzie commits to Cincinnati
Four draft departures and a DL room still under pressure — Huzzie lands as Satterfield fills structural gaps in a class ranked 61st, not the sexiest number for a program that just jumped 16 spots in SP+.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -3.3 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.8
need filled
LB+7.2
need filled
DL-6.9
starter risk
OT-3.5
low confidence
EDGE-3.5
RB-3.5
S-3.2
LS-3.0
low confidence
WR+2.7
QB-0.4
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Lance Dawson
#344 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Markell Taylor
#774 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jaidon Windom
#804 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
25
OH · 9AL · 4GA · 3TN · 2FL · 1IL · 1IN · 1LA · 1+3 more
OH leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
83 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Cincinnati player grew up 297 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
62nd-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%108–489 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi21%23 of 107 players
Farthest2,021 miDino Beslagic · Santa Clara, CA
Closest2 miGi'Bran Payne · Cincinnati, OH
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Nippert Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 107 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Cincinnati 35-13
[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats UCF 20-11
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Cincinnati 26-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
How it turned out
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
12th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↓
12th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Market 14pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Turnover luck
Fumble luck
29% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~48% league baseline.
2 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
23% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
3 interceptions of 13 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
22 penalties committed, 19 drawn on opponents — ceding 75 yards of field position.
214 penalty yards committed vs. 139 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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