3identity shift
Cincinnati: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Scott Satterfield enters his third season aiming to solidify Cincinnati's Big 12 identity after a 7-6 record and a #22 AP finish that signaled the program must prove its move.
Cincinnati7-6CFP #25Latest
Cautious optimism is building around Cincinnati.
belief cooled ↓ 4.9vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
55/100 · 108 mentions
~ our readGrounding
about average
7% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 28 pts
~ our readThe model
#69
CFB Zeitgeist · +1.2
✓ measured3Hope-Doping·Offseason
Cincinnati is the first program from outside the power structure to crash the College Football Playoff — then spent its reward, a Big 12 invitation, learning how hard it is to do it again with the bar that high.
AP Top 25#22 AP
Bearcat fans remember being told for years a team like theirs could never make the Playoff — so they made it, undefeated, the first ones in — and they say the people who tried to keep them out still h…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Cincinnati
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production79%High continuity
Talent Composite#73 nationally247 composite 644.1
Portal Additions22Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses23Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss4NFL Draft departures (4) — 2 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#58Development class
WRin 5 - Cade Wolfordout 4 - Caleb GoodieUpgrade
current room: 190 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Cole Tabbout 4 - Evan PryorEven
current room: 200 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Chidera Otutuout 4 - Kamari BurnsStarter Risk
current room: 290 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 2 - Ty Goodwillout 4 - Jiquan SanksStarter Risk
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 4 - MJ Cannonout 1 - Ormanie ArnoldNeed Filled
current room: 184 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 3 - Damaine Wilsonout 1 - Cincear LewisNeed Filled
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Boston College · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
The experience
Cincinnati is the program that made the CFP in 2021 as a Group of 5 team and now must prove the move from American to Big 12 was worth it.
Offense: EliteDefense: SoftDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
Cincinnati's 2026 season hinges on transfer portal balance and continuity
With a high continuity score of 79% and a balanced transfer portal churn, Cincinnati aims to maintain its competitive edge in the 2026 season.
- Roster reloadCincinnati has a returning total pct of 79% and a high continuity label, indicating strong team cohesion despite losing four players to the NFL Draft.
Data as of 2026-08-01
·
Validated against program evidence
Lucy the Bearcat is patient.
Cincinnati · the story right now
9 storylines developing
What Cincinnati's coordinator hires is really about
the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Scott Satterfield's third season at Cincinnati follows a 7-6 record, with the program needing to prove the Big 12 move was worth it after a CFP run as a Group of 5 team.
what happenedCincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Jeff Caldwell produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Tawee Walker does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Scott Satterfield enters his third season aiming to solidify Cincinnati's Big 12 identity after a 7-6 record and a #22 AP finish that signaled the program must prove its move.
what happenedCincinnati: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Caleb Goodie is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jeff Caldwell is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Cincinnati jumped 16 spots in SP+ — the Big 12's middle-tier production returns test whether Scott Satterfield can sustain the leap under new conference scrutiny.
what happenedCincinnati enters 2025 rated No. 56 in SP+ (+4.5), up 16 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Cincinnati jumped 16 spots in SP+ — the gap between the ranking and its 7-6 record is the story Scott Satterfield has to answer in the Big 12 this year.
what happenedCincinnati enters 2026 rated No. 56 in 2025 SP+ (+4.5), up 16 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedCincinnati's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Active arcs
The Offseason Ledger · Cincinnati
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Cincinnati announces offensive line depth chart
Taran Tyo's position switch is the headline inside this depth chart — Satterfield's best-five puzzle had a piece out of place, and moving Tyo is the adjustment that makes the math work after losing four O-linemen to the draft.
- Recruiting
Huzzie commits to Cincinnati
Four draft departures and a DL room still under pressure — Huzzie lands as Satterfield fills structural gaps in a class ranked 61st, not the sexiest number for a program that just jumped 16 spots in SP+.
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -6.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB+10.8
need not filled
LB+7.2
need not filled
DL-6.9
starter risk
S-6.7
starter risk
OT-3.5
low confidence
EDGE-3.5
RB-3.5
LS-3.0
low confidence
WR+2.7
QB-0.4
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Lance Dawson
#344 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Markell Taylor
#774 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jaidon Windom
#804 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
59th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
59th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fans 33pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 5.5
CFP championship#41 in field+25000
Big 12 title#15 in market+7000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Cincinnati · Next-Season Outcome Band
Cincinnati · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Cincinnati · Developing Confidence
Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
A verified change worth tracking; the reaction below is where the story is.
Source of record: Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Cincinnati quarterback JC French IV draws praise as Bearcats open fall camp”
WLWT · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Current Chicago Bears safety and former Cincinnati Bearcat Coby Bryant to miss 8-10 weeks with hyperextended knee”
Cincy on the Prowl · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Cincinnati's top returning seniors in 2026 high school football”
Cincinnati Enquirer · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards7% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (42%).›
This event was in 34 of 469 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hey everyone! 👋I thought I’d share in case anyone is looking for a flexible, paid job this semester or something that counts as a co-op as well for University of Cincinnati student"
r/uCinci ~ fan take
"Well they did schedule Cincinnati two years in a row in 2021 and 2022. Not P4 yet, but we were P4 in 2023. They probably saw how those went and decided to stop scheduling tough tea"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (117 posts): 21% positive · 55% neutral · 24% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Cincinnati · Developing Confidence
Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Scott Satterfield's third season at Cincinnati follows a 7-6 record, with the program needing to prove the Big 12 move was worth it after a CFP run as a Group of 5 team.
Source of record: Cincinnati: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
“Cincinnati quarterback JC French IV draws praise as Bearcats open fall camp”
WLWT · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Current Chicago Bears safety and former Cincinnati Bearcat Coby Bryant to miss 8-10 weeks with hyperextended knee”
Cincy on the Prowl · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Cincinnati's top returning seniors in 2026 high school football”
Cincinnati Enquirer · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards7% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (42%).›
This event was in 34 of 469 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Hey everyone! 👋I thought I’d share in case anyone is looking for a flexible, paid job this semester or something that counts as a co-op as well for University of Cincinnati student"
r/uCinci ~ fan take
"Well they did schedule Cincinnati two years in a row in 2021 and 2022. Not P4 yet, but we were P4 in 2023. They probably saw how those went and decided to stop scheduling tough tea"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (117 posts): 21% positive · 55% neutral · 24% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hibernating
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Streak L5Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Boston College · at home
Season line5.5 winsover +120
EliteSoftBend-don't-break
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Miami (OH)
Hopeful+9
Battle for the Victory Bell (OH)
Louisville
Mixed+5
Keg of Nails
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
25
OH · 9AL · 4GA · 3TN · 2FL · 1IL · 1IN · 1LA · 1+3 more
OH leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
83 signees across 18 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Navy Defeats Cincinnati 35-13
[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats UCF 20-11
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Cincinnati 26-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 6 ESPN, 3 cable
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 3 afternoon, 4 primetime
Fumble luck
40% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
4 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves; 7 of 16 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
5% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 39 disrupted passes (37 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
92 penalties committed, 65 drawn on opponents — ceding 347 yards of field position.
846 penalty yards committed vs. 499 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Cincinnati
55
Δ -4.9 vs last wk
108
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Bearcats"
— Cincinnati fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
How Cincinnati fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
OSU doesnt need to use the portal like that. When you're constantly recruiting elite high school talent there's less need to backfill with the portal.
▲ 224 ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Recruiting heads+0.06
Casuals+0.03
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
370 mentions · 6 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkmiddle of the pack
~ our readCincinnati fans are split right down the middle, and they're backing it with about as much hard evidence as anyone.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 117 posts from Cincinnati fans this week.
Fanbase divided: 47% believers, 53% skeptics
Fan opinions split nearly 50/50 right now · See all divided fanbases →
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
program directionWidely held among fans
fans believe Cincinnati knew about Sorsby's gambling issues and continued to use him despite this
They just followed court orders. Cincinnati knew and played him for two years. Why did this come out a week after their buyout wasn't paid? It's obvious guys.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 10, 2026 · via ESPN College Football
Season storylines
Week 1
“What the fuck is that play call! We haven’t been able to pass all game and we are in field goal range!!! Stupid motherfucker Satterfield 🤮”— r/CFB
Week 19
Week 7
“Yes, everyone just forget about Cincinnati. Don't take us seriously we're still that 3-9 team from 2023.”— r/CFB
Week 6
“That whole game just felt weird from the very start. Broadcast, crowd, both teams, everything. Just very going-through-the-motions.”— r/CFB
Week 8
“Cradle of Quarterbacks is dead. Brohm briefly brought back a version of it, but now it’s dead for good.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
The broader fanbase3 posts
News & campus coverage10 posts
CFB analyst takes3 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Cincinnati lives rent-free in
- UCF6%
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up Cincinnati
Fanbase Health Index · Cincinnati · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Cincinnati · high confidenceGrowing (62)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-6 (54% win rate)62
Volume — 958 effective signal-N90
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
428 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
bearcats
×432.6 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
bearcats×432.6n=35
sorsby×27.5n=41
Mild — <3×
defense×2.6n=99
Characteristic — 3–10×
nfl×5.4n=22
secondary×5.0n=18
quarterback×3.8n=22
linebacker×4.4n=12
second×3.3n=14
defensive×2.9n=16
wide×3.0n=10
“Every fifth play is a Sorsby TD in this game. Not every fifth play even Bearcats are on offense, just every fifth play”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
799 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#37 / 138 · 74th pct30.3
Pts allowed/game#72 / 138 · 49th pct25.6
Total yards/gm#48 / 136 · 65th pct407.6
Rush yards/gm#42 / 136 · 70th pct177.5
Pass yards/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct230.2
Yards allowed/gm#106 / 136 · 23rd pct399.1
Rush yds allowed/gm#114 / 136 · 17th pct178.7
Sacks#89 / 136 · 35th pct22
Interceptions#136 / 136 · 1st pct2
3rd-down conv#81 / 136 · 41st pct38.7%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5299407.6/gm6.94/play#48 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp5188399.1/gm5.60/play#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Rush yards
Team2307177.5/gm3.02/play#42 / 136 · 70th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2323178.7/gm2.51/play#114 / 136 · 17th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Rush carries
Team40130.8/gm#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp53741.3/gm#130 / 136 · 5th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Rush TDs
Team211.6/gm#63 / 136 · 54th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp191.5/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Net pass yards
Team2992230.2/gm3.92/play#63 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2865220.4/gm3.09/play#80 / 136 · 42nd pct#44 / 69 · 38th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Pass attempts
Team36327.9/gm#95 / 136 · 31st pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp38929.9/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Completions
Team22417.2/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp26020.0/gm#96 / 136 · 30th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Pass TDs
Team292.2/gm#17 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp201.5/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Passer rating
Team156.2156.2#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp142.6142.6#109 / 136 · 21st pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team60.5/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp20.2/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team221.7/gm#89 / 136 · 35th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp80.6/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team554.2/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp403.1/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
First downs
Team25519.6/gm#71 / 136 · 49th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp29422.6/gm#126 / 136 · 8th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
3rd-down conv
Team554.2/gm#121 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp775.9/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
3rd-down att
Team14210.9/gm#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp18814.5/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
4th-down conv
Team181.4/gm#29 / 136 · 79th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp241.8/gm#134 / 136 · 2nd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team251.9/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp372.8/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Time of possession
Team315:3924:17/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp464:2135:43/gm#135 / 136 · 1st pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#69 / 135 · 50th pct13/17 (76.5%)
Extra points49/49
Punting#25 / 136 · 82nd pct45.4 avg · 41 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team141.1/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp100.8/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#8 / 69 · 90th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Fumbles lost
Team80.6/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp80.6/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 11 · 73rd pct
INT return yards
Team1168.9/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp403.1/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Punt ret yds
Team15612.0/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp1118.5/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct
Kick ret yds
Team24218.6/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp30923.8/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team84665.1/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#7 / 69 · 91st pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp49938.4/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Other
H1 epa per play#7 / 162 · 96th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct0.40.0/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#9 / 136 · 94th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct60.5/gm
Penalties#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct927.1/gm
Penalties (opp)#29 / 136 · 79th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct655.0/gm
H2 epa per play#29 / 142 · 80th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct0.20.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#31 / 136 · 78th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct100.8/gm
Fumbles recovered#33 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct80.6/gm
Red zone pass rate#36 / 154 · 77th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.40.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct181.4/gm
Fourth down go rate#55 / 138 · 61st pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct0.40.0/gm
Recruiting rating#61 / 138 · 57th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct189.514.6/gm
Punt returns#68 / 136 · 51st pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct161.2/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#11 / 16 · 38th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct80.6/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#115 / 167 · 32nd pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct0.20.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#115 / 143 · 20th pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct0.20.0/gm
First down pass rate#115 / 215 · 47th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.40.0/gm
Kick returns#118 / 136 · 14th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct110.8/gm
Interceptions (def)#136 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct20.2/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off38.7%#81 / 136 · 41st pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def41.0%#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
4th-down conversion
Off72.0%#6 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def64.9%#116 / 136 · 15th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Turnover margin#98 / 136 · 29th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct-0.31/gm
Sack rate (def)#98 / 136 · 29th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct5.7%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team443.4/gm#68 / 167 · 60th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#9 / 16 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp443.4/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Red zone score %
Team81.8%81.8%#62 / 167 · 63rd pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#7 / 16 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp72.7%72.7%#37 / 166 · 78th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Points / drive
Team2.60.2/gm#26 / 167 · 85th pct#20 / 69 · 72nd pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp2.10.2/gm#100 / 166 · 40th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#13 / 16 · 25th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Yards / drive
Team46.03.5/gm#25 / 167 · 86th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#5 / 16 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp47.83.7/gm#151 / 166 · 10th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.40.5/gm#104 / 167 · 38th pct#52 / 69 · 26th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp7.70.6/gm#164 / 166 · 2nd pct#69 / 69 · 1st pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team12.5%12.5%#65 / 167 · 62nd pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp9.4%9.4%#134 / 166 · 20th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#68 / 145 · 54th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#10 / 16 · 44th pct-0.8%-0.8%
Havoc rate
Team12.7%12.7%#123 / 140 · 13th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#15 / 16 · 12th pct
Opp12.3%12.3%#22 / 140 · 85th pct#11 / 69 · 86th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct
Standard-downs success
Team53.2%53.2%#17 / 154 · 90th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Opp50.5%50.5%#118 / 172 · 32nd pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 16 · 19th pct
Passing-downs success
Team32.7%32.7%#53 / 153 · 66th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct
Opp34.6%34.6%#123 / 149 · 18th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct
Line yards / carry
Team3.53.5#5 / 143 · 97th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#3 / 16 · 88th pct
Opp3.43.4#140 / 155 · 10th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct
Stuff rate
Team16.0%16.0%#32 / 143 · 78th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#4 / 16 · 81st pct
Opp13.9%13.9%#135 / 155 · 14th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct
Power success rate
Team75.0%75.0%#44 / 137 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct
Opp74.5%74.5%#103 / 141 · 28th pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off61.7%#71 / 136 · 49th pct#45 / 69 · 36th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def66.8%#125 / 136 · 9th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 16 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Yards / attempt
Off8.2#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Def7.4#84 / 136 · 39th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 16 · 31st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Yards / completion
Off13.4#17 / 136 · 88th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Def11.0#45 / 136 · 68th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#6 / 16 · 69th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Yards / carry#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 69 · 97th pct#2 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct5.8
Yards / play#8 / 136 · 95th pct#6 / 69 · 93rd pct#1 / 16 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct6.94
Scoring margin#59 / 136 · 57th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#8 / 16 · 56th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct+4.7/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Threat · +0.46 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 206 / 335 | 61.5 | 2786 #48 FBS | 8.3 | 26 #16 FBS | 5 | 154.0 | 76.7 | 8.9 | 2.0 | |
Yards by week → Dual Threat· Money-downDangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: he'll hurt you with his legs — and he finds the end zone, too 10 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush yards / carry5.8 94th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts TD rate7.8% 96th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 56th to 77th to 93rd percentile among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.07 EPA/play | 16 | 3 | 14 / 21 | 66.7 | 134 | 6.4 | 2 | 1 | 142.2 | 87.3 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.23 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 120 | 709 | 5.9 | 4 | 54 | 6 | 10.9 | 16.8 | 17.6 | 6.5% (22/336) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight218 lb 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.3 bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tawee Walker's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.15 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 76 | 522 | 6.9 | 3 | 46 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 15.6 | 23.4 | 5.1% (17/336) | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry7.4 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.7 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Evan Pryor's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 29 | 12 | 27 | 194 | 7.2 | 1 | 36 | 8.9 | 9.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 1 | 21 | 4.4 | 6.8 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.61 EPA/play | 4 | 13 | 50 | 660 | 13.2 | 12 #5 FBS | 88 | 10.8 | 14.0 | 18.8% (63/336) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume50 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate24.0% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 84th percentile among FBS WRs, fell to 24th, now back up to 84th | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.32 EPA/play | 10 | 10 | 29 | 484 | 16.7 | 2 | 82 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 16.1% (54/336) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.1 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Caleb Goodie's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.61 EPA/play | 9 | 12 | 32 | 478 | 14.9 | 6 #62 FBS | 40 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 16.4% (55/336) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball TargetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate18.8% 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception16.2 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Jeff Caldwell's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.75 EPA/play | 11 | 12 | 29 | 416 | 14.3 | 4 | 73 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 10.7% (36/336) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.0 bottom 29th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 76th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Joe Royer's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play | 8 | 11 | 23 | 323 | 14.0 | 0 | 36 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 11.9% (40/336) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 63th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Noah Jennings's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.66 EPA/play | — | 9 | 14 | 222 | 15.9 | 3 | 42 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 5.7% (19/336) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.9 76th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate21.4% 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 4 | 11 | 30 | 10 | 3.5 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Mikah Coleman's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 11 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 3.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Jalen Hunt's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Isaiah Rogers's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 98 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 5th percentile to the 37th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 2 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight335 lb 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dontay Corleone's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 16 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 91st percentile among FBS IDLs to the 25th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 40 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Kamari Burns's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 97 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 12 | 95 | 36 | 59 | 4 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume95 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.2% bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 54th percentile to the 86th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 12 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Jonathan Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 49 | 11 | 51 | 23 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume51 50th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 48th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 21st, now back up to 51st | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 31 | 13 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume39 bottom 34th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Simeon Coleman's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 17 | 12 | 34 | 10 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume34 bottom 28th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 2nd percentile to the 25th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 44 | 9 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 5th percentile to the 34th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| 39 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 6 | 11 | 67 | 3 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume67 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 31st to 63rd percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 11 | 55 | 7 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 16th percentile to the 74th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 46 | 12 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Antwan Peek Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 9 | 12 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.9% 54th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jiquan Sanks's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | — | 13 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Perimeter Tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 82th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 95th percentile among FBS CBs to the 64th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 36 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.9% bottom 25th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 83rd percentile to the 32nd among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 7 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Logan Wilson's full player pagePD rate18.2% 68th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 10 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 67th to 7th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 25 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate26.7% 91th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Daniel James's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 75th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ormanie Arnold's full player page | |||||||
| 18 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 13 | 13/17 | 76.5 | 47/47 | 86 | 46 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 31 | 13 | 41 | 1861 | 45.4 | 66 | 18 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover Corner | 7 | 10 | 8 | 190 | 23.8 | 0 | 37 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.40 EPA/play | 29 | 12 | 16 | 156 | 9.8 | 0 | 57 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Brendan Sorsby
QB
2,786 yds (pass)
2.
Jonathan Thompson
LB
67.0 tot (def)
3.
Trevon Gola-Callard
S
67.0 tot (def)
4.
Christian Harrison
S
55.0 tot (def)
5.
Jack Dingle
LB
51.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
29
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Brendan Sorsby
QB
#13 of 146
Jake Golday
LB
#90 of 583
Cyrus Allen
WR
#89 of 485
Tawee Walker
RB
#70 of 326
Joe Royer
TE
#37 of 156
Mikah Coleman
IDL
#83 of 330
+23 more
Cincinnati · 2025 schedule & results7-6Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 7 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule. 1 ranked win banked (time-of-game rank).
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #54 | #42 | +6 | Nebraska (N) | L 17–20 131 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #39 | #147 | -22.5 | Bowling Green | W 34–20 124 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #52 | #240 | -48.5 | Northwestern State | W 70–0 100 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #51 | #44 | +4.5 | @Kansas | W 37–34 135 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #46 | #41 | -1.5 | Iowa StateTop 25 win | W 38–30 144 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #48 | #76 | -10.5 | UCF | W 20–11 138 | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #50 | #159 | -23.5 | @Oklahoma State | W 49–17 127 | 6-1 | 4-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #36 | #31 | -3.5 | Baylor | W 41–20 129 | 7-1 | 5-0 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #32 | #10 | +11 | @Utah | L 14–45 147 | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #39 | #55 | -6 | Arizona | L 24–30 130 | 7-3 | 5-2 |
| 13 | Nov 23 | #49 | #17 | +2.5 | BYU | L 14–26 135 | 7-4 | 5-3 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #49 | #45 | +3 | @TCU | L 23–45 126 | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Jan 2 | #58 | #53 | +7.5 | Navy (N) | L 13–35 | 7-6 | 5-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | Navy | L 13–35 | — | — | — | -0.086 | 25.4% | 165.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 29 | @TCU | L 23–45 | 397 | 1 | 22:05 | +0.351 | 44.4% | 130.7% | |
| Nov 23 | BYU | L 14–26 | 387 | 2 | 21:35 | +0.154 | 41.3% | 132.5% | |
| Nov 15 | Arizona | L 24–30 | 344 | 2 | 23:19 | +0.221 | 35.6% | 155.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 2 | @Utah | L 14–45 | 427 | 3 | 19:58 | +0.089 | 40.6% | 156.9% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 25 | Baylor | W 41–20 | 376 | 0 | 35:06 | +0.258 | 50.0% | 99.8% | |
| Oct 19 | @Oklahoma State | W 49–17 | 427 | 0 | 23:18 | +0.489 | 58.7% | 126.1% | Blowout win |
| Oct 11 | UCF | W 20–11 | 306 | 0 | 20:16 | +0.138 | 41.7% | 118.8% | |
| Oct 4 | Iowa State | W 38–30 | 478 | 1 | 25:04 | +0.373 | 45.6% | 158.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 27 | @Kansas | W 37–34 | 603 | 0 | 34:36 | +0.454 | 51.9% | 126.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | Northwestern State | W 70–0 | 605 | 0 | 20:45 | +0.905 | 75.5% | 143.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Bowling Green | W 34–20 | 439 | 1 | 22:49 | +0.413 | 45.3% | 147.2% | |
| Aug 29 | Nebraska | L 17–20 | 271 | 2 | 20:30 | +0.193 | 54.5% | 89.2% | One-score loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 422 | 1.0 | +0.304 | 47.0% | 134.6% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Cincinnati fields an elite offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Cincinnati actually scores
89th percentile quality, 16th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Cincinnati's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 94th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 96th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Cincinnati hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
89th percentile success on standard downs, 65th on passing downs — a 24-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Cincinnati by half
1st-half offense ranks 96th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 80th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Cincinnati's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.30; 85th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.50 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Cincinnati reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 7%) and rushing epa (top 11%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Cincinnati sits at the 25th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Cincinnati
Most Similar Programs · CincinnatiReads Like
App StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Cincinnati · 2018-present
Elite
76% home win rate vs 60% on the road. margin runs +14.7 better at home. Nippert Stadium seats 40,000, averaging 93% full (37,234 attendance, 26 games reported).
Home40-12Away25-16
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor split the carries (118/194 vs 76/194) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Evan Pryor produces in bigger chunks.
Tawee WalkerEvan Pryor
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 1 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Cyrus Allen (WR) and Joe Royer (TE) split the targets (58/91 vs 33/91) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Cyrus AllenJoe Royer
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Cincinnati’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Gino Guidugli (2022) → Brad Glenn (2023–2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved down 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Tyson Veidt / co-Nate Fuqua (2024) → Tyson Veidt / co-Cortney Braswell (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Cincinnati’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Brad Glenn (2023–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 43% → 2025: 43% · 3-pt range · #157 of 171 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 38% → 2025: 45% · 16-pt range · #48 of 171 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2023: 48% → 2025: 41% · 14-pt range · #108 of 171 · a typical amount
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Cincinnati’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.3% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 119-play sample) — mid-pack, 119 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=119 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 73.1%
Historical echo
Cincinnati’s slide has precedent — and 3 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
Purdue 1980–1985
kept sliding
Utah State 1967–1972
kept sliding
Nebraska 1987–1992
clawed back
SMU 1985–1992
kept sliding
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
62°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 77 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Cincinnati's 2014–2025 record is 92-57. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
436-450-15
since 1893 · 113 seasons · .483 win rate
HOME
281-175-9
AWAY
144-261-6
NEUTRAL
11-14
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program résumé
1CFP apps
The program, in full — read the essay
Cincinnati went undefeated in 2021, became the first program outside the traditional power structure to reach the College Football Playoff, and then watched the reward — a Big 12 invitation — deliver a 5-7 missed bowl and a 7-6 Liberty Bowl loss to Navy. Breaking the ceiling is one thing. The room above it has been harder than advertised.
The 2021 Bearcats didn't sneak into the Playoff — they went 13-1, won the American, beat Notre Dame in South Bend on the road, and made the selection committee acknowledge a team like theirs could belong. Sauce Gardner was a shutdown corner who became a top-five NFL pick and All-Pro. Desmond Ridder was the quarterback. Luke Fickell was the coach. The program didn't just crack the door open for Group of Five programs; it kicked it in. Nippert Stadium — one of the oldest continuously used on-campus stadiums in the country, a tight urban bowl where the noise sits directly on the field — was the setting. That's the canon Cincinnati points to.
Scott Satterfield's Big 12 tenure has been a grind. A 5-7 year in 2024, then a 7-6 in 2025 capped by a 35-13 Liberty Bowl loss to Navy. New coordinators arrived for 2026 alongside a portal-reshaped roster. Satterfield enters year four with the question the fanbase has been quietly asking for two seasons: can the program that broke into the Playoff once get back there from inside a Power conference, against Power competition, every week? The internal fracture in Cincinnati is real and specific — one faction is still measuring against Fickell's 2021 standard; the other is giving Satterfield the time a Big 12 rebuild requires.
The 2026 season is the clearest referendum Satterfield has faced. New coordinators, a reshaped roster, and a Big 12 schedule that doesn't forgive bad weeks. The question isn't whether the 2021 season was legitimate — it was — but whether this program can compete in a league that has no off weeks the way the American once did.
How they play
Defense-and-edge football remains the Bearcat baseline — the identity Fickell's 2021 team built, physical and corner-rich, with Sauce Gardner as the archetype. Satterfield has tried to layer an offensive system over that defensive foundation, with mixed results in the Big 12. The program's credibility still flows through the back seven; when Cincinnati wins close games in the Big 12, it's because the defense holds. Nippert's tight urban bowl amplifies home-game noise in a way that benefits a physical, edge-driven team.
Steady
Cincinnati 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.08 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Cincinnati
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6 · CFP #25 / AP #22
Season Standing · 2025 · 7-6 · CFP #25 / AP #22Ranked (25-16)
Cincinnati: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Big 12 Standing · 2025
7th in the Big 12
Cincinnati is 7th of 16 in the Big 12 at 5-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 9-1 |
| 2 | BYU | 8-2 |
| 3 | Utah | 7-2 |
| 4 | Arizona | 7-3 |
| 5 | Arizona State | 6-3 |
| 6 | Houston | 6-3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 5-4 |
| 8 | Iowa State | 5-4 |
| 9 | TCU | 5-4 |
| 10 | Kansas State | 5-5 |
| 11 | Baylor | 3-6 |
| 12 | Kansas | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCF | 2-7 |
| 14 | West Virginia | 2-7 |
| 15 | Colorado | 1-8 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Cincinnati
Coaching Era · CincinnatiScott Satterfield
Scott Satterfield has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Era Scott Satterfield · 2023–presentPrev: Luke Fickell (2017–2022)OC: Pete Thomas / co-Nic CardwellPrev OC: Brad Glenn (2023–2025)DC: Nate Woody / co-Cortney BraswellPrev DC: Tyson Veidt / co-Cortney Braswell (2025)
4
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
2021 CFP Run
since 2021
Cincinnati became the first Group of 5 program to make the College Football Playoff in 2021 under Luke Fickell — 13-1, AAC champions, semifinal loss to Alabama. The 2021 run is the program's defining modern moment + the reason the Big 12 extended an invitation in 2023.
Nippert Stadium On-Campus
since 1924
Nippert Stadium sits in the middle of UC's urban campus — one of the most-densely-built college stadiums in CFB. The proximity to dorms + classrooms + parking creates a Saturday environment unique to urban campuses. Visitors cite Nippert as one of the most-unusual P5 stadium experiences.
Bearcat Mascot
since 1914
The bearcat (a small carnivorous mammal of Southeast Asia, scientifically related to the binturong) is one of CFB's most-unusual mascot names. Origin: a 1914 student rally cry referring to a player as 'fighting like a bearcat.' The name stuck before anyone confirmed what a bearcat actually was. Lucy the Bearcat (costumed) appears at games.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2021
First G5 Playoff berth
Undefeated Cincinnati becomes the first non-power program to reach the College Football Playoff
2021
Beating Notre Dame in South Bend
A road win over the Irish that powered the Playoff case
2021
Cotton Bowl loss to Alabama
A 27-6 semifinal defeat ends the undefeated run
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Cincinnati · 2025
Moment of the Year · Cincinnati · 2025Postseason · Lost 13-35 vs Navy
Week 18 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 2-6
Most recent: 2025 — loss 13-35 (home). Last 5 postseason: 1-4.
20252022202120202019
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineStrong
18 picks last 5 cycles. 1 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
18
picks · 1 R1
#4
Ahmad Gardner
Cornerback · 2022 · New York · #4/321 final season
#51
Jake Golday
Linebacker · 2026 · Minnesota · #90/583 final season
#53
Alec Pierce
Wide Receiver · 2022 · Indianapolis · #63/468 final season
#86 all-time · 3 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Cincinnati’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Eddie Gran2016 · Zac Taylor2017–2021 · Mike Denbrock2022 · Gino Guidugli2023–2025 · Brad Glenn
Hired for 2026: Pete Thomas / co-Nic Cardwell — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · co-Robert Prunty / co-Hank Hughes2015 · co-Robert Prunty / co-Steve Clinkscale2016 · Robert Prunty2017–2020 · Marcus Freeman2021 · Mike Tressel2022 · co-Colin Hitschler / Mike Tressel2023 · Bryan Brown / co-Nate Fuqua2024 · Tyson Veidt / co-Nate Fuqua2025 · Tyson Veidt / co-Cortney Braswell
Hired for 2026: Nate Woody / co-Cortney Braswell — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 79% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the LB room but opened a hole at DL.
4 players drafted in 2026; the reload runs through the portal and recruiting.
Cincinnati converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.
r/cfb moments
2.2k
[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats USF 45-28
1.5k
[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats ECU 27-25
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[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats ECU 35-13
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[Postgame Thread] Cincinnati Defeats SMU 48-14
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[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats Cincinnati 25-21
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