Arizona 34-7 Cincinnati (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Cincinnati · Arizona

Cincinnati4-17

Arizona4-134Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Ariz. · Crowd 43,760

Arizona beat Cincinnati 34-7.

We had Arizona favored. It won.

Next: Cincinnati lost to West Virginia 45-42, Sat Oct 17

Next: Arizona beat West Virginia 52-31, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Not trying to recover that fumble is insane

Q3 11:19 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Arizona a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (Arizona was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Favored the whole way: Arizona never fell below 71%.

Cincinnati never had better than a 28% chance.

FinalArizona 34-7 CincinnatiArizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 5:49Cincinnati fans lament a dropped pass that causes a turnover on downsCan’t blame IV for that oner/CFB game threadFuuuuck that was almost so goodr/CFB game thread
Q2 2:28Cincinnati fans argue Fifita's pass to Powell was a backwards passCommerical to, 5 sec, commerical to is criminalr/CFB game threadThat call was dogshit lmaor/CFB game thread
Q3 11:19Cincinnati penalty on Peek gives Arizona first down after Roberts fumbleQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 6:18Officials overturn first down call on French run, fans debate spotCutter Boley is worse than JC Frenchr/CFB game thread

Arizona’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Arizona -7), at 72% for Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Arizona or Cincinnati flair (481 and 363); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Arizona’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Arizona scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Cincinnati on 1 of its 10.

Arizona’s drives are teal, Cincinnati’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Not trying to recover that fumble is insane”

A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.

What it cost

Cincinnati’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Cincinnati · lost1% → ▼0%

Arizona · won5% → ▲6%

Win the conference

Cincinnati · lost0% → 0%

Arizona · won4% → ▲5%

Before the game (October 3, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Arizona 34, Cincinnati 7

Arizona covered −7 by 20. The total, 41, stayed under 56.5.

Team totals	Cincinnati	Arizona
Total yards	227	522
Passing	16 of 29, 153 yds	25 of 37, 284 yds
Rushing	28 for 74 yds	41 for 238 yds
First downs	12	30
Third down	7 of 16	9 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 3	0 of 1
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	6 for 46 yds	8 for 70 yds
Time of possession	24:21	35:39

Cincinnati leaders

Passing JC French 16 of 29, 153 yds
Rushing JC French 9 for 29 yds, 1 TD; Gi'Bran Payne 11 for 24 yds
Receiving Isaiah Johnson 6 for 60 yds; Cole Tabb 4 for 40 yds

Arizona leaders

Passing Noah Fifita 25 of 37, 284 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Antwan Roberts 5 for 87 yds; Quincy Craig 7 for 77 yds
Receiving Isaiah Mizell 4 for 67 yds; Tyler Powell 5 for 40 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

81° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Arizona Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left8:06 p.m.

Cincinnati 0, Arizona 0 · Arizona 72% to win

no rain · 81°

Fifita sacked for a 4-yd loss

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Davis-monthan Afb airport, 5.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Cincinnati · 4-0

Rated 109th in our preseason ratings, 95th now, up 14 spots.

4 straight wins, capped by a 5-point win over Kansas State as a 6-point underdog.

W 31-26 vs Kansas State #30 of 668

won by 5 as a 6-point underdog

W 35-31 vs Miami (OH) #85 of 668

won by 4 as a 14.5-point favorite

W 62-10 vs Western Carolina #193 of 668

won by 52 as a 36.5-point favorite

W 34-15 vs Boston College #131 of 668

won by 19 as a 7-point favorite

Last 4 games

Arizona · 3-1

Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 26th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 34-24 @ Washington State #50 of 668

won by 10 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 42-17 vs Northern Illinois #108 of 668

won by 25 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 17-28 @ BYUTop 25 #9 of 668

lost by 11 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Northern Arizona #152 of 668

won by 28 as a 33.5-point favorite

Week by week

Arizona

Wk 1Wvs Northern Arizona35-7
Wk 2Lat BYU17-28
Wk 3Wvs Northern Illinois42-17
Wk 4Wat Washington State34-24

Cincinnati

Wk 1Wvs Boston College34-15
Wk 2Wvs Western Carolina62-10
Wk 3Wvs Miami (OH)35-31
Wk 4Wvs Kansas State31-26

Power rating by week

Arizona is rated 8.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Arizona, 96 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Cincinnati’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense
Cincinnati offense, 98th percentile · Arizona defense, 2nd
Arizona’s passing EPA against Cincinnati’s defense
Arizona offense, 81st percentile · Cincinnati defense, 7th
Arizona’s EPA/play against Cincinnati’s defense
Arizona offense, 81st percentile · Cincinnati defense, 13th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

CincinnatiArizona

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Arizona leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2025 · Arizona won the last meeting

2025Arizona 30-24

Each line is Arizona’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Arizona fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (80th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Arizona favored by 7 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Arizona by 7, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Cincinnati.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.

Cincinnati at Arizona · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Arizona Stadium, Tucson

79°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
98weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the best of the day's 3 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Arizona Stadium that day, a 4:30 pm kickoff would have scored 85, against 98 at 7:30 pm.

4:30 pm: 85, Mixed
6:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
7:30 pm: 98, Comfortable (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Arizona is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.

49% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (22-23 home, 14-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,552 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Arizona13th0-1
Cincinnati6th1-0

Full Big 12 standings

Arizona beats Cincinnati 34-7