No. 15 BYU beats Arizona 28-17

Arizona1-117
No. 15 BYU2-028Final
Sat, Sep 12 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah · Crowd 64,409FOX

No. 15 BYU beat Arizona 28-17.

We had BYU favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

We didn't need that little anecdote about the Bachmeier family

Q4 3:55 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Fifita intercepted by Uluave at the Arizona 26, returned 17 yards (Q1, 5:58). BYU went from 45% to 60% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave BYU a 75% chance, and the closing betting line (BYU was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

A tight one: BYU bottomed out at 44% and won.

Arizona never had better than a 56% chance.

FinalBYU 28-17 ArizonaBYU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q457% at halfBYUArizonaWon28-1712+15−15ScoresBYUArizonaBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 9 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 20 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 13 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 18 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q457% at halfBYUWon28-1712ScoresBYUArizonaBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 9 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 20 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 13 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 18 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q443% at halfArizonaBYULowest 0%Lost17-2812−15+15ScoresArizonaBYUArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 18 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 9 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 20 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 13 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q443% at halfBYULowest 0%Lost17-2812ScoresArizonaBYUArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 0 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 8 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 1 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 5 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 7 comments a minuteArizona fans: 18 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 6 comments a minuteArizona fans: 3 comments a minuteArizona fans: 4 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteArizona fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 1 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 2 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 4 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 9 comments a minuteBYU fans: 3 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 5 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 7 comments a minuteBYU fans: 10 comments a minuteBYU fans: 8 comments a minuteBYU fans: 6 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 20 comments a minuteBYU fans: 16 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 14 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 12 comments a minuteBYU fans: 13 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 5:58InterceptionFifita intercepted by Uluave at the Arizona 26, returned 17 yardsBYU 45% → 60% (+15)
  2. 2Q2 2:03Fifita 16-yd TD pass to King, Arizona goes ahead 17-14BYU 79% → 64% (−15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 5:58InterceptionFifita intercepted by Uluave at the Arizona 26, returned 17 yardsArizona 55% → 40% (−15)
  2. 2Q2 2:03Fifita 16-yd TD pass to King, Arizona goes ahead 17-14Arizona 21% → 36% (+15)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q4 8:58Officials overturn generous first down spot on Fifita pass to GallagherTerrible call to go for it man. Should’ve taken the damn points. There was 8 minutes left in the gamer/CFB game threadI was shocked they called it a first down to begin with lmaor/CFB game thread
  2. Q4 3:55Fans react to broadcast announcers discussing Bachmeier's family and RGIIIQuoted at the top of the page.RGIII is an agent of pure chaos.r/CFB game thread
BYU’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (BYU -6.5), at 74% for BYU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a BYU or Arizona flair (1,109 and 643); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show BYU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 9:10Fifita 11-yd TD runArizona goes ahead 7-0Q1, 9:10 · BYU 0, Arizona 7▼12%BYU’s chance to win, 63% to 51%▼12%BYU’s chance to win, 63% to 51%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 5:58Fifita intercepted by Uluave at the Arizona 26returned 17 yardsQ1, 5:58 · BYU 0, Arizona 7▲15%BYU’s chance to win, 45% to 60%▲15%BYU’s chance to win, 45% to 60%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q1, 5:16Bachmeier 6-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 5:16 · BYU 7, Arizona 7▲12%BYU’s chance to win, 60% to 72%▲12%BYU’s chance to win, 60% to 72%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q2, 12:46Bachmeier 25-yd TD pass to FrischknechtBYU goes ahead 14-10Q2, 12:46 · BYU 14, Arizona 10▲5%BYU’s chance to win, 75% to 80%▲5%BYU’s chance to win, 75% to 80%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q2, 11:38Fifita sacked for a 6-yd lossQ2, 11:38 · BYU 14, Arizona 10▲3%BYU’s chance to win, 80% to 83%▲3%BYU’s chance to win, 80% to 83%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q2, 2:03Fifita 16-yd TD pass to KingArizona goes ahead 17-14Q2, 2:03 · BYU 14, Arizona 17▼15%BYU’s chance to win, 79% to 64%▼15%BYU’s chance to win, 79% to 64%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q3, 9:37Bachmeier 6-yd TD pass to KasperBYU goes ahead 21-17Q3, 9:37 · BYU 21, Arizona 17▲13%BYU’s chance to win, 66% to 79%▲13%BYU’s chance to win, 66% to 79%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. Q4, 6:10Bachmeier 12-yd TD pass to KasperBYU leads 28-17Q4, 6:10 · BYU 28, Arizona 17▲6%BYU’s chance to win, 90% to 96%▲6%BYU’s chance to win, 90% to 96%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  9. Q4, 5:36Fifita sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 5:36 · BYU 28, Arizona 17▲2%BYU’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%BYU’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

BYU scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Arizona on 3 of its 10.

BYU’s drives are teal, Arizona’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Arizona: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownBYU: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntArizona: Interception, from 79 yards out to 77InterceptionBYU: Touchdown, from 9 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Field goalBYU: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Arizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntBYU: Punt, from 80 yards out to 80PuntArizona: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownBYU: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntArizona: End of half, from 91 yards out to 88End of halfQ3BYU: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Punt, from 65 yards out to 45PuntBYU: Punt, from 94 yards out to 93PuntArizona: Punt, from 55 yards out to 36PuntBYU: Punt, from 80 yards out to 68PuntQ4Arizona: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 18DownsBYU: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownArizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 89PuntBYU: End of game, from 55 yards out to 6End of game

From Arizona’s side

Arizona’s best moment: Fifita 16-yd TD pass to King, Arizona goes ahead 17-14 (Q2 2:03). It lifted Arizona’s win chance by 15 points.

How Arizona fans took it: “Gg cougs that was close for a while. Wish we could pack our stadium like that!” r/CFB game thread

“did anyone else hear it lol”
An Arizona fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were loudest in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

FirstSecondThirdFourthBYU fansArizona fansusual

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Arizona fans

secondary“Secondary is a liability, they were against NAU and BYU has shredded them all game”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: ads, refs, back, need.

What it cost

Arizona’s chance to make the playoff fell from 7% to 4%.

Make the playoff

Arizona · lost7% → ▼4%7%▼ 4%
BYU · won16% → ▲19%16%▲ 19%

Win the conference

Arizona · lost6% → ▼4%6%▼ 4%
BYU · won13% → ▲17%13%▲ 17%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

BYU 28, Arizona 17

BYU covered −6.5 by 4.5. The total, 45, stayed under 49.5.

ArizonaBYUTotal yardsArizona 327BYU 365327365Passing yardsArizona 230BYU 217230217Rushing yardsArizona 97BYU 14897148First downsArizona 19BYU 171917TurnoversArizona 1BYU 010Time of possessionArizona 33:41BYU 26:1933:4126:19
Team totalsArizonaBYU
Total yards327365
Passing23 of 31, 230 yds16 of 26, 217 yds
Rushing31 for 97 yds30 for 148 yds
First downs1917
Third down5 of 126 of 11
Fourth down0 of 10 of 0
Turnovers10
Penalties7 for 55 yds7 for 59 yds
Time of possession33:4126:19

Arizona leaders

  • Passing Noah Fifita 23 of 31, 230 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kedrick Reescano 15 for 49 yds; Noah Fifita 11 for 38 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Cole Rusk 2 for 48 yds; Gio Richardson 5 for 48 yds

BYU leaders

  • Passing Bear Bachmeier 16 of 26, 217 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing LJ Martin 20 for 98 yds; Bear Bachmeier 6 for 37 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Legend Glasker 3 for 74 yds; Kyler Kasper 4 for 51 yds, 2 TD

No rain through the game

88° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 61 other games played at LaVell Edwards Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 69°, with about 7 in 10 games between 61° and 80°.

September game-day temperatures at LaVell Edwards Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4BYU favoredArizona favored100%Win chanceBYURaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4BYU favoredArizona favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 2:03 left2:59 p.m.
Arizona 17, BYU 14 · BYU 64% to win
no rain · 92°
Fifita 16-yd TD pass to King, Arizona goes ahead 17-14

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Provo Muni (awos) airport, 4.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Arizona · 9-4

Rated 27th in our preseason ratings, 28th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 19-24 @ SMUTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 5 as a 2.5-point underdog

Arizona lost 19-24 vs SMU. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 37%.

W 23-7 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #45 of 667

won by 16 as a 2.5-point favorite

Arizona won 23-7 at Arizona State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 20%, high 97%.

W 41-17 vs Baylor #56 of 667

won by 24 as a 6.5-point favorite

Arizona won 41-17 vs Baylor. Chance to win started at 68%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 30-24 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #47 of 667

won by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

Arizona won 30-24 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 35%, low 11%, high 95%.

W 24-20 vs Kansas #60 of 667

won by 4 as a 6.5-point favorite

Arizona won 24-20 vs Kansas. Chance to win started at 73%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

W 52-17 @ Colorado #77 of 667

won by 35 as a 3.5-point favorite

Arizona won 52-17 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 53%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

L 28-31 @ HoustonTop 25 #65 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Arizona lost 28-31 at Houston. Chance to win started at 43%, low under 1%, high 81%.

L 27-33 vs BYUTop 25 #32 of 667

lost by 6 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 41-13 vs Oklahoma State #125 of 667

won by 28 as a 23.5-point favorite

Arizona won 41-13 vs Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

L 14-39 @ Iowa StateTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 25 as a 4.5-point underdog

Arizona lost 14-39 at Iowa State. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 42%.

W 23-17 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #49 of 667

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

Arizona won 23-17 vs Kansas State. Chance to win started at 59%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

W 48-3 vs Weber State #186 of 667

won by 45 as a 31.5-point favorite

Arizona won 48-3 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 40-6 vs Hawai'i #152 of 667

won by 34 as a 15.5-point favorite

Arizona won 40-6 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 89%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

BYU · 12-2

Rated 9th in our preseason ratings, 9th now.

2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 25-21 vs Georgia TechTop 25 #49 of 667

won by 4 as a 3.5-point favorite

BYU won 25-21 vs Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 70%, low 16%, high 99%.

L 7-34 @ Texas TechTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 27 as a 13.5-point underdog

BYU lost 7-34 vs Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 33%.

W 41-21 vs UCF #89 of 667

won by 20 as a 17.5-point favorite

BYU won 41-21 vs UCF. Chance to win started at 91%, low 57%, high better than 99%.

W 26-14 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #52 of 667

won by 12 as a 2.5-point favorite

BYU won 26-14 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 50%, low 44%, high better than 99%.

W 44-13 vs TCUTop 25 #46 of 667

won by 31 as a 2.5-point favorite

BYU won 44-13 vs TCU. Chance to win started at 66%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

L 7-29 @ Texas TechTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 22 as a 13.5-point underdog

BYU lost 7-29 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 41-27 @ Iowa StateTop 25 #45 of 667

won by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog

BYU won 41-27 at Iowa State. Chance to win started at 21%, low 8%, high 98%.

W 24-21 vs UtahTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

BYU won 24-21 vs Utah. Chance to win started at 44%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

W 33-27 @ ArizonaTop 25 #70 of 667

won by 6 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 38-24 vs West Virginia #80 of 667

won by 14 as a 19.5-point favorite

BYU won 38-24 vs West Virginia. Chance to win started at 93%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 24-21 @ Colorado #54 of 667

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

BYU won 24-21 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 57%, low 18%, high 97%.

W 34-13 @ East Carolina #75 of 667

won by 21 as a 5.5-point favorite

BYU won 34-13 at East Carolina. Chance to win started at 49%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 27-3 vs Stanford #85 of 667

won by 24 as a 20.5-point favorite

BYU won 27-3 vs Stanford. Chance to win started at 94%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

W 69-0 vs Portland State #232 of 667

won by 69 as a 44.5-point favorite

BYU won 69-0 vs Portland State. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

BYU

  • Wk 1Wvs Utah Tech63-7

Arizona

  • Wk 1Wvs Northern Arizona35-7

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: BYU’s passing EPA against Arizona, 32 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. BYU’s explosive plays against Arizona’s defense

    28 pointsweakerstronger50th

    BYU offense, 30th percentile · Arizona defense, 2nd

  2. BYU’s passing EPA against Arizona’s defense

    32 pointsweakerstronger50th

    BYU offense, 53rd percentile · Arizona defense, 85th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ArizonaBYU
EPA/play, offense
Arizona · 81BYU · 86
EPA/play, defense
Arizona · 76BYU · 74
Success rate, offense
Arizona · 88BYU · 92
Success rate, defense
Arizona · 85BYU · 79
Explosive-play rate, offense
Arizona · 66BYU · 30
Explosive-play rate, defense
Arizona · 2BYU · 62
Rush EPA, offense
Arizona · 73BYU · 98
Rush EPA, defense
Arizona · 71BYU · 71
Pass EPA, offense
Arizona · 81BYU · 53
Pass EPA, defense
Arizona · 85BYU · 82

The series

BYU leads the series 14-12-1

27 meetings since 1936 · BYU has won the last 5

BYU wonArizona won1936: Arizona by 261957: tie1959: BYU by 41962: Arizona by 61963: Arizona by 261964: Arizona by 331965: BYU by 171966: BYU by 21967: BYU by 31968: Arizona by 161969: BYU by 101970: Arizona by 71971: Arizona by 131972: Arizona by 141973: Arizona by 141974: BYU by 241975: Arizona by 161976: BYU by 71977: BYU by 202006: Arizona by 32007: BYU by 132008: Arizona by 102016: BYU by 22018: BYU by 52021: BYU by 82024: BYU by 222025: BYU by 619362025
  • 2025BYU 33-27
  • 2024BYU 41-19BYU won 41-19 vs Arizona. Chance to win started at 56%, low 21%, high better than 99%.
  • 2021 · neutral siteBYU 24-16BYU won 24-16 vs Arizona. Chance to win started at 80%, low 72%, high 99%.
  • 2018BYU 28-23BYU won 28-23 at Arizona. Chance to win started at 20%, low 16%, high 94%.
  • 2016 · neutral siteBYU 18-16

Each line is BYU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

BYU fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 75% · Line 70%BYU fans · 55thArizona fans · 64thArizonaBYU

BYU favored by 6.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

BYU by 6.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 90° at kickoff.

Arizona at BYU · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo

  • 90°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 62weather score, Rough
  • Roughestof the day's 5 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At LaVell Edwards Stadium that day, a 8 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 62 at 1:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 1:30 pm: 62, Rough (this game)
  • 4 pm: 66, Rough
  • 5 pm: 74, Rough
  • 7 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 8 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

BYU is worth +2.9 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.

75% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (33-11 home, 29-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,633 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 556 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next