BYU at Colorado State
BYU (#11, 2‑0) travels to Colorado State (2‑0), with BYU favored by 17.5. The model gives BYU a 78% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
BYU · 2-0
Picked #9 in the preseason · now #10 — about right.
Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last two games
Colorado State · 2-0
Picked #79 in the preseason · now #81.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 58–24 vs Southern Utah #150 of 669
won by 34 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 35–13 vs Wyoming #112 of 669
won by 22 as a 3-point favorite
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 15, 2026
The series
BYU leads the series 39-27-3
69 meetings since 1922 · BYU has won the last 7
- 2010BYU 49–10
- 2009BYU 42–23
- 2008BYU 45–42
- 2007BYU 35–16
- 2006BYU 24–3
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
BYU
The chip · vs the national mediaCougar fans have heard for years that the schedule was soft, that the faith makes the program a curiosity, that the wins came against nobody — and they say the 2025 Big 12 run answered all of it at once, on the field, against Power competition.
What this game touches
One game short of the breakthrough. The 2025 Cougars went 12-2, but a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game ended the Playoff dream and the league-title chase in the same night — the closest BYU has come to validating the Big 12 move, and a reminder of exactly how much is left to finish.
Colorado State
The chip · vs big brotherRams fans have spent a generation watching Colorado get the cameras, the recruits, and the benefit of the doubt while Fort Collins gets called the other Colorado school. The Pac-12 move is the chance, finally, to be looked at as a peer instead of a punchline.
What this game touches
The 2025 bottom-out. The Rams went 2-10 (1-7 MW) and fired Jay Norvell on October 19 after a 2-5 start — a humiliating final Mountain West season right before the move up, with interim coach Tyson Summers closing out the year.
Best players
BYU
- Legend Glasker (WR) · 139 receiving yards
- Bear Bachmeier (QB) · 415 passing yards — Heisman odds: 20th (+5000)
- LJ Martin (RB) · 152 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 73rd (+20000)
Colorado State
- Oumar Diomande (LB) · 16 tackles
- TreShawn Moore (S) · 16 tackles
- Jayden Brown (RB) · 228 rushing yards
The line, and the room
Colorado State fans are feeling better about their season (90th percentile) than BYU fans are (55th) — even with BYU favored here.
- Model · 22%
- Market · 8%
- Colorado State fans · 90th
- BYU fans · 55th
Home +17.5 · O/U 52
Conditions
76°F · 3 mph wind
Colorado State is worth +4.0 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 46th percentile.
42% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (17–23 home, 9–32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.5 at home vs. away over 71 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
5,014 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 346 miles to get here.
Recent games
Colorado State
- Wk 1Wvs Wyoming35-13
- Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
BYU
- Wk 1Wvs Utah Tech63-7
- Wk 2Wvs Arizona28-17
Trajectory
The market
Spread: +18 → +17.5
Book hold: 5.0%