UTSA beats Colorado State 59-45

Colorado State2-245
UTSA3-159Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas · Crowd 17,109ESPNU

UTSA beat Colorado State 59-45.

We had UTSA favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

Okay but for 2 minutes, I was having a blast

Q2 6:48 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Farrar 74-yd TD pass to Smith, Colorado State leads 14-0 (Q1, 13:16). UTSA went from 75% to 53% to win. Fans right then: “TO THE HOUSE!” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA an 84% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 14.5-point favorite) put it at 88%.

Favored the whole way: UTSA never fell below 53%.

Colorado State led by 14 but, as a 14.5-point underdog, never had better than a 47% chance.

Kickoff return TDColorado State · Q1 14:4835 unansweredUTSA · Q1 2:04Kickoff return TDUTSA · Q3 11:27
FinalUTSA 59-45 Colorado StateUTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfUTSAWon59-4512−22−16Scores35 unansweredKickoff return TDUTSAC. StateUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 4 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 3 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfUTSAWon59-4512Scores35 unansweredKickoff return TDUTSAC. StateUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 4 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 3 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfUTSALowest 0%Lost45-5912+22+16Scores35 unansweredKickoff return TDC. StateUTSAColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 3 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 4 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfUTSALowest 0%Lost45-5912Scores35 unansweredKickoff return TDC. StateUTSAColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 3 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 0 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 1 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteColorado State fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 2 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 4 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 0 comments a minuteUTSA fans: 1 comments a minute

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:16Farrar 74-yd TD pass to Smith, Colorado State leads 14-0UTSA 75% → 53% (−22)
  2. 2Q1 10:52McCown incomplete to WilsonUTSA 69% → 53% (−16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 13:16Farrar 74-yd TD pass to Smith, Colorado State leads 14-0Colorado State 25% → 47% (+22)
  2. 2Q1 10:52McCown incomplete to WilsonColorado State 31% → 47% (+16)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 14:48Colorado State's Brown returns kickoff 94 yards for touchdown to open scoringTO THE HOUSE!r/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 5:12The head coach ripped into the defensive coordinator on the sideline.Nothing makes me happier than watching Mora rip Tyson Summers a new one on the sideliner/CFB game thread
  3. Q1 3:15Colorado State fans demand firing defensive coordinator Tyson Summers after UTSA scoresFire Tyson Summers on 3 1 2 3 FIRE TYSON SUMMERS!r/CFB game threadThe strategery is to let UTSA score at will so the offense can get on the field faster. Too bad the offense also wants to get off the field.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 15:00Boise HS would do serious damage to this defenser/CFB game thread😔r/CFB game thread
  5. Q2 6:48Quoted at the top of the page.Colorado Rams? We deserve this disrespectr/CFB game thread
  6. Q4 2:09Colorado State defense allows Peterson's 47-yard rushing touchdown with 2:09 leftDefense: "Best we can do is allow an immediate 40+ rushing touchdown."r/CFB game thread
UTSA’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UTSA -14.5), at 76% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UTSA or Colorado State flair (97 and 220); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

UTSA scored on 9 of its 14 drives; Colorado State on 7 of its 14.

UTSA’s drives are teal, Colorado State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Colorado State: Uncategorized, from 3 yards out to 3UncategorizedUTSA: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Missed field goal, from 63 yards out to 26Missed FGColorado State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntUTSA: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 84 yards out to 86PuntUTSA: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 51PuntQ2UTSA: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 41DownsUTSA: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Punt, from 73 yards out to 77PuntColorado State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 63PuntUTSA: End of half, from 66 yards out to 61End of halfQ3UTSA: Punt, from 68 yards out to 68PuntColorado State: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Colorado State: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownUTSA: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Field goalColorado State: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 34Field goalUTSA: Touchdown, from 47 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado State: Interception, from 66 yards out to 56InterceptionUTSA: End of game, from 0 yards out to 2End of game

From Colorado State’s side

Colorado State’s best moment: Farrar 74-yd TD pass to Smith, Colorado State leads 14-0 (Q1 13:16). It lifted Colorado State’s win chance by 22 points.

How Colorado State fans took it: “Welp, entertaining game, at least. And I agree with what commentary's saying: It takes a ton of mental fortitude by the offense to keep grinding away and…” r/CFB game thread

“What a way to make an entrance”
A Colorado State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the opening quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthUTSA fansColorado State fansusual

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“We breaking the single game penalty yards record today”
A Colorado State fan

What it cost

UTSA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 7% to 8%.

Make the playoff

Colorado State · lost0% → 0%
UTSA · won7% → ▲8%7%▲ 8%

Win the conference

Colorado State · lost3% → ▲4%
UTSA · won17% → ▲18%17%▲ 18%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UTSA 59, Colorado State 45

Colorado State covered +14.5 by 0.5. The total, 104, went over 56.5.

Colorado StateUTSATotal yardsColorado State 500UTSA 542500542Passing yardsColorado State 344UTSA 303344303Rushing yardsColorado State 156UTSA 239156239First downsColorado State 21UTSA 252125TurnoversColorado State 1UTSA 010Time of possessionColorado State 31:17UTSA 28:4331:1728:43
Team totalsColorado StateUTSA
Total yards500542
Passing29 of 46, 344 yds20 of 30, 303 yds
Rushing32 for 156 yds42 for 239 yds
First downs2125
Third down6 of 179 of 16
Fourth down5 of 60 of 0
Turnovers10
Penalties11 for 61 yds3 for 45 yds
Time of possession31:1728:43

Colorado State leaders

  • Passing Ksaan Farrar 29 of 46, 344 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jayden Brown 12 for 90 yds; Durell Robinson 13 for 43 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Terrence Smith Jr. 6 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Reginald Vick Jr 5 for 93 yds

UTSA leaders

  • Passing Owen McCown 20 of 30, 303 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Will Henderson III 14 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Brandon High 14 for 76 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving DJ Allen 5 for 87 yds, 1 TD; AJ Wilson 3 for 62 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Colorado State · 2-1

Rated 79th in our preseason ratings, 76th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

Last three games

UTSA · 2-1

Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 11th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 5-point win over Texas State as a 1.5-point underdog.

Week by week

UTSA

Wk 1: W 45-16 vs UT Rio Grande Valley▲29UT Rio Grande V…Wk 2: W 31-26 at Texas State▲5Texas StateWk 3: L 6-30 at Texas▼24Texas
  • Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
  • Wk 2Wat Texas State31-26
  • Wk 3Lat Texas6-30

Colorado State

Wk 1: W 35-13 vs Wyoming▲22WyomingWk 2: W 58-24 vs Southern Utah▲34Southern UtahWk 3: L 23-41 vs BYU▼18BYU
  • Wk 1Wvs Wyoming35-13
  • Wk 2Wvs Southern Utah58-24
  • Wk 3Lvs BYU23-41

Power rating by week

UTSA is rated 8.5 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

104-3Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3UTSAColorado State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s rushing EPA against Colorado State, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. UTSA’s EPA/play against Colorado State’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTSA offense, 77th percentile · Colorado State defense, 2nd

  2. UTSA’s rushing EPA against Colorado State’s defense

    82 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UTSA offense, 82nd percentile · Colorado State defense, 0th

  3. Colorado State’s explosive plays against UTSA’s defense

    42 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Colorado State offense, 96th percentile · UTSA defense, 54th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Colorado StateUTSA
EPA/play, offense
Colorado State · 71UTSA · 77
EPA/play, defense
Colorado State · 2UTSA · 34
Success rate, offense
Colorado State · 57UTSA · 71
Success rate, defense
Colorado State · 0UTSA · 37
Explosive-play rate, offense
Colorado State · 96UTSA · 16
Explosive-play rate, defense
Colorado State · 61UTSA · 54
Rush EPA, offense
Colorado State · 97UTSA · 82
Rush EPA, defense
Colorado State · 0UTSA · 14
Pass EPA, offense
Colorado State · 43UTSA · 47
Pass EPA, defense
Colorado State · 3UTSA · 32

The series

Colorado State leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2015 · UTSA won the last meeting

  • 2025UTSA 17-16UTSA won 17-16 at Colorado State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 44%, high 96%.
  • 2016Colorado State 23-14
  • 2015Colorado State 33-31

Each line is UTSA’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Colorado State fans are in a better mood than UTSA fans (70th vs 43rd among FBS fanbases), even with UTSA favored.

50-50Model 84% · Line 88%UTSA fans · 43rdColorado State fans · 7…Colorado StateUTSA

UTSA favored by 14.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

UTSA by 14.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward UTSA.

opened −11.5now −14.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 57.5now 56.5

Spread: −11.5 → −14.5 · Total: 57.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 4.0%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UTSA is worth +7.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

73% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (35-13 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.1 at home vs. away over 105 games — outside the ±5.6 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 856 miles to get here.

Where next