UTSA beats Rice 16-14
UTSA beat Rice 16-14. Share this game
We had UTSA favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: 25-yd punt (Q4, 1:45). UTSA went from 87% to 70% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UTSA a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (UTSA was a 11.5-point favorite) put it at 82%.
Favored the whole way: UTSA never fell below 61%.
Rice never had better than a 39% chance.
UTSA 16-14 Rice
UTSA wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rice 14-16 UTSARice lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:26Henderson 12-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 13-7UTSA 64% → 79% (+15)
- 2Q4 1:4525-yd puntUTSA 87% → 70% (−17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:26Henderson 12-yd TD run, UTSA goes ahead 13-7Rice 36% → 21% (−15)
- 2Q4 1:4525-yd puntRice 13% → 30% (+17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UTSA -11.5), at 74% for UTSA (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
UTSA scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Rice on 2 of its 10.
UTSA’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rice’s side
Rice’s best moment: 25-yd punt (Q4 1:45). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 17 points.
What it cost
UTSA’s chance to make the playoff rose from 8% to 10%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
UTSA 16, Rice 14
Rice covered +11.5 by 9.5. The total, 30, stayed under 56.5.
| Team totals | UTSA | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 314 | 232 |
| Passing | 19 of 29, 148 yds | 6 of 14, 88 yds |
| Rushing | 43 for 166 yds | 46 for 144 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 13 |
| Third down | 6 of 16 | 2 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 64 yds | 7 for 45 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:06 | 27:54 |
UTSA leaders
- Passing Owen McCown 19 of 29, 148 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Will Henderson III 18 for 90 yds, 1 TD; Brandon High 6 for 29 yds
- Receiving David Amador 7 for 48 yds; DJ Allen 3 for 27 yds
Rice leaders
- Passing Jacurri Brown 6 of 14, 88 yds
- Rushing Jacurri Brown 17 for 96 yds, 2 TD; DAndre Hardeman Jr. 12 for 28 yds
- Receiving Ben Grice 1 for 40 yds; Jordan Clark 3 for 26 yds
No rain through the game
86° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Rice Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Houston Dunn airport, 0.9 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
UTSA · 3-1
Rated 18th in our preseason ratings, 17th now.
3-1 in its last 4, including a 5-point win over Texas State as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last 4 games
Rice · 1-3
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 143rd now, up 38 spots.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Rice
- Wk 1Wvs Houston Christian31-3
- Wk 2Lat Notre Dame0-52
- Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28
- Wk 4Lat Fresno State24-38
UTSA
- Wk 1Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45-16
- Wk 2Wat Texas State31-26
- Wk 3Lat Texas6-30
- Wk 4Wvs Colorado State59-45
Power rating by week
UTSA is rated 12.9 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UTSA’s rushing EPA against Rice, 58 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UTSA’s EPA/play against Rice’s defense
UTSA offense, 77th percentile · Rice defense, 24th
UTSA’s rushing EPA against Rice’s defense
UTSA offense, 82nd percentile · Rice defense, 24th
Rice’s explosive plays against UTSA’s defense
Rice offense, 27th percentile · UTSA defense, 54th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
UTSA leads the series 9-4
13 meetings since 2012 · UTSA won the last meeting
- 2025UTSA 61-13
- 2024Rice 29-27
- 2023UTSA 34-14
- 2022UTSA 41-7
- 2021UTSA 45-0
Each line is Rice’s chance to win through that meeting. Rice is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
UTSA fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
UTSA favored by 11.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
UTSA by 11.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Rice.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: +12.5 → +11.5 · Total: 52.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 92° at kickoff.
UTSA at Rice · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Rice Stadium, Houston
- 92°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 55weather score, Rough
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Rice Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 62, against 55 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 50, Rough
- 2:30 pm: 56, Rough
- 3:15 pm: 46, Harsh
- 6 pm: 55, Rough (this game)
- 6:45 pm: 62, Rough
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Rice is worth +3.1 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
35% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 10-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 186 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Rice 29, UTSA 27Oct 12, 2024
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.