East Carolina beats Rice 28-12
Team pages: Rice · East Carolina
East Carolina beat Rice 28-12. Share this game
We had East Carolina favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave East Carolina a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (East Carolina was a 10-point favorite) put it at 79%.
Favored the whole way: East Carolina never fell below 64%.
Rice never had better than a 36% chance.
East Carolina 28-12 Rice
East Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rice 12-28 East CarolinaRice lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q3 12:47Byars 23-yd TD run, blocked, Rice goes ahead 9-7East Carolina 79% → 66% (−13)
The play that swung it
- 1Q3 12:47Byars 23-yd TD run, blocked, Rice goes ahead 9-7Rice 21% → 34% (+13)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (East Carolina -10), at 79% for East Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
East Carolina scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Rice on 3 of its 14.
East Carolina’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rice’s side
Rice’s best moment: Byars 23-yd TD run, blocked, Rice goes ahead 9-7 (Q3 12:47). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 13 points.
Box score
East Carolina 28, Rice 12
East Carolina covered −10 by 6. The total, 40, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | Rice | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 233 | 376 |
| Passing | 4 of 14, 69 yds | 21 of 34, 142 yds |
| Rushing | 51 for 164 yds | 41 for 234 yds |
| First downs | 13 | 19 |
| Third down | 3 of 15 | 5 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 6 for 45 yds | 3 for 15 yds |
| Time of possession | 29:45 | 30:15 |
Rice leaders
- Passing Gael Ochoa 2 of 4, 48 yds
- Rushing Tyvonn Byars 14 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Colin Leahey 7 for 19 yds
- Receiving Jordan Clark 4 for 69 yds
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Emory Williams 19 of 31, 143 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing TJ Engleman 14 for 136 yds, 1 TD; Michael Allen 10 for 35 yds
- Receiving Nathaniel Joseph 6 for 68 yds, 2 TD; Jason Dickerson 2 for 20 yds
No rain through the game
75° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 68°, with about 7 in 10 games between 57° and 77°.
October game-day temperatures at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Pitt-greenville_aprt airport, 2.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Rice · 1-4
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 128th now, up 53 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last 4 games
East Carolina · 2-2
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 75th now.
2-2 in its last 4, including a 3-point win over Old Dominion as a 2.5-point underdog.
Week by week
East Carolina
- Wk 1Lat Alabama10-48
- Wk 2Lvs App State24-27
- Wk 3Wat Old Dominion20-17
- Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
Rice
- Wk 1Wvs Houston Christian31-3
- Wk 2Lat Notre Dame0-52
- Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28
- Wk 4Lat Fresno State24-38
- Wk 5Lvs UTSA14-16
Power rating by week
East Carolina is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Rice’s passing EPA against East Carolina, 96 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rice’s passing EPA against East Carolina’s defense
Rice offense, 1st percentile · East Carolina defense, 97th
Rice’s EPA/play against East Carolina’s defense
Rice offense, 9th percentile · East Carolina defense, 88th
East Carolina’s explosive plays against Rice’s defense
East Carolina offense, 53rd percentile · Rice defense, 21st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Rice leads the series 3-2
5 meetings since 2005 · Rice has won the last 2
- 2023Rice 24-17
- 2010Rice 62-38
- 2009East Carolina 49-13
- 2006Rice 18-17
- 2005East Carolina 41-28
Each line is East Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (100th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
East Carolina favored by 10 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
East Carolina by 10, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 47.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
East Carolina is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
43% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (18-24 home, 17-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,123 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- East Carolina9th0-0
- Rice12th0-1