UAB beats East Carolina 30-17 in overtime
Team pages: East Carolina · UAB
UAB beat East Carolina 30-17 in overtime after its win chance fell to 2%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 2% or less in about 1 of every 90 games since 2018.
We had East Carolina favored. UAB won.
Next: East Carolina at Memphis, Thu Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET · East Carolina underdog by 10
Top comment in the game thread
I JUST WOKE MY WIFE UP YELLING BABBYYYY WOOO
How it swung
The turning point: Burton 17-yd TD pass to McReynolds, ties it 17-17 (Q4, 0:35). UAB went from 7% to 42% to win. Fans right then: “I JUST WOKE MY WIFE UP YELLING BABBYYYY WOOO” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave UAB a 42% chance, and the closing betting line (UAB was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.
UAB · OTPick-sixUAB · OTUAB 30-17 East Carolina
UAB wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.East Carolina 17-30 UABEast Carolina lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:35Burton 17-yd TD pass to McReynolds, ties it 17-17UAB 7% → 42% (+35)
- 2OTMosley 1-yd runUAB 33% → 60% (+27)
- 3OTInterceptionWilliams intercepted by Gulley at the UAB 20 and returned for a TD, UAB leads 30-17UAB 78% → 100% (+22)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:35Burton 17-yd TD pass to McReynolds, ties it 17-17East Carolina 93% → 58% (−35)
- 2OTMosley 1-yd runEast Carolina 67% → 40% (−27)
- 3OTInterceptionWilliams intercepted by Gulley at the UAB 20 and returned for a TD, UAB leads 30-17East Carolina 22% → 0% (−22)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 4:18UAB fans celebrate Allen fumble as ECU turns ball over in first quarter
Damn, good punch out That slip put him in the falling motion anyways, he was already out of control just hoping he had hit the ground first
r/CFB game thread - Q2 14:54ECU's Quarterman recovers a fumble for a touchdown to extend the lead
I really have no words man
r/CFB game thread - Q2 11:59UAB offense scores to take the lead, energizing fans
Damn man. I don’t even know what to say.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:37UAB punts onside with 1:37 left, surprising fans with the high-IQ decision
nvm lmao
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:47The quarterback threw a very hard pass.
Baller ass catch right there
r/CFB game thread - Q4 0:42Burton passes to McReynolds for a touchdown, tying the game with 35 seconds leftQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (East Carolina -5.5), at 40% for UAB (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show UAB’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:07Williams 3-yd TD pass to JosephEast Carolina goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:07 · UAB 0, East Carolina 7▼10%UAB’s chance to win, 32% to 22%▼10%UAB’s chance to win, 32% to 22%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 14:13Smith Flores fumbles, Quarterman returns it for a TDEast Carolina leads 14-0Q2, 14:13 · UAB 0, East Carolina 140-14score after the play0-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 6:33Burton sacked for a 9-yd lossQ2, 6:33 · UAB 0, East Carolina 140-14score after the play0-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 0:35Burton 17-yd TD pass to McReynoldsties it 17-17Q4, 0:35 · UAB 17, East Carolina 17▲35%UAB’s chance to win, 7% to 42%▲35%UAB’s chance to win, 7% to 42%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- OvertimeBurton 6-yd TD pass to RobinsonUAB goes ahead 24-17Overtime · UAB 24, East Carolina 17▲19%UAB’s chance to win, 60% to 79%▲19%UAB’s chance to win, 60% to 79%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- OvertimeWilliams sacked for a 1-yd lossOvertime · UAB 24, East Carolina 1724-17score after the play24-17score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- OvertimeWilliams intercepted by Gulley at the UAB 20 and returned for a TDUAB leads 30-17Overtime · UAB 30, East Carolina 17▲22%UAB’s chance to win, 78% to 100%▲22%UAB’s chance to win, 78% to 100%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
UAB scored on 5 of its 12 drives; East Carolina on 3 of its 13.
UAB’s drives are teal, East Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From East Carolina’s side
East Carolina’s best moment: Burton incomplete to Smith (OT). It lifted East Carolina’s win chance by 13 points.
“Someone at B Dubz about to hit that overtime button?”
When fans got loud
Roaring
The jump was roaring; the crowd was steady.
A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.
The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
What it cost
East Carolina’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 14, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
East Carolina plays at Memphis on Thu Oct 22 with a 3% chance to win the conference. UAB plays at South Florida on Sat Oct 31 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
UAB 30, East Carolina 17
UAB covered +5.5 by 18.5. The total, 47, stayed under 49.5.
| Team totals | East Carolina | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 317 | 361 |
| Passing | 18 of 27, 126 yds | 19 of 37, 262 yds |
| Rushing | 50 for 191 yds | 32 for 99 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 19 |
| Third down | 9 of 20 | 6 of 16 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 45 yds | 9 for 76 yds |
| Time of possession | 34:11 | 25:49 |
East Carolina leaders
- Passing Emory Williams 18 of 27, 126 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing TJ Engleman 26 for 104 yds; Emory Williams 12 for 42 yds
- Receiving Jason Dickerson 3 for 26 yds; Ismael Smith Flores 2 for 22 yds
UAB leaders
- Passing Ryder Burton 19 of 37, 262 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Roderick Robinson II 8 for 33 yds; Ja'Vin Simpkins 4 for 31 yds
- Receiving C.J. Smith 8 for 119 yds; Tiaquelin Mims 3 for 47 yds
No rain and calm
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the east-northeast, gusts to 6
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Birmingham Muni airport, 4.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
East Carolina · 3-2
Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 74th now.
Three straight wins, including a 3-point win over Old Dominion as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
UAB · 3-3
Rated 55th in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Navy as a 6.5-point underdog.
W 33-14 vs Samford #217 of 668
won by 19 as a 30.5-point favorite
Week by week
UAB
- Wk 2Wvs UL Monroe26-20
- Wk 3Lat Louisiana14-21
- Wk 4Wvs Navy24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Samford33-14
- Wk 6Lat Memphis13-38
East Carolina
- Wk 1Lat Alabama10-48
- Wk 2Lvs App State24-27
- Wk 3Wat Old Dominion20-17
- Wk 4Wvs North Carolina Central42-9
- Wk 6Wvs Rice28-12
Power rating by week
East Carolina is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UAB’s passing EPA against East Carolina, 91 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UAB’s passing EPA against East Carolina’s defense
UAB offense, 6th percentile · East Carolina defense, 97th
UAB’s EPA/play against East Carolina’s defense
UAB offense, 16th percentile · East Carolina defense, 88th
East Carolina’s explosive plays against UAB’s defense
East Carolina offense, 53rd percentile · UAB defense, 95th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
East Carolina leads the series 9-4
13 meetings since 1998 · East Carolina has won the last 7
- 2013East Carolina 63-14
- 2012East Carolina 42-35
- 2011East Carolina 28-23
- 2010East Carolina 54-42
- 2009East Carolina 37-21
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
East Carolina fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (100th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 42%
- Line · 33%
- UAB fans · 42nd
- East Carolina fans · 100th
East Carolina favored by 5.5 · Total 49.5
How games like this usually go
East Carolina by 5.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward UAB.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: +6.5 → +5.5 · Total: 53.5 → 49.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
UAB is worth +6.7 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
71% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (29-12 home, 16-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.1 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 556 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- UAB7th1-1
- East Carolina6th1-0