App State upsets East Carolina 27-24

Team pages: App State · East Carolina

App State2-027
East Carolina0-224Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, N.C. · Crowd 40,074ESPNU

App State beat East Carolina 27-24 as a 6.5-point underdog.

We had East Carolina favored. App State won.

Next: App State beat Charlotte 26-21, Sat Sep 19

Next: East Carolina beat Old Dominion 20-17, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Singleton 4-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 14:17). App State went from 16% to 41% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave App State a 41% chance, and the closing betting line (App State was a 6.5-point underdog) put it at 30%.

17 unansweredApp State · Q2 14:17
FinalApp State 27-24 East CarolinaApp State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfApp StateEast CarolinaLowest 11%Won27-2412+25+24Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q464% at halfApp StateLowest 11%Won27-2412Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfEast CarolinaApp StateHigh 89%Lost24-2712−25−24Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q436% at halfApp StateHigh 89%Lost24-2712Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:17Singleton 4-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 10-7App State 16% → 41% (+25)
  2. 2Q4 1:5646-yd puntApp State 65% → 89% (+24)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 14:17Singleton 4-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 10-7East Carolina 84% → 59% (−25)
  2. 2Q4 1:5646-yd puntEast Carolina 35% → 11% (−24)
App State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (East Carolina -6.5), at 23% for App State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show App State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 4:11Allen 2-yd TD runEast Carolina goes ahead 7-0Q1, 4:11 · App State 0, East Carolina 7▼11%App State’s chance to win, 23% to 12%▼11%App State’s chance to win, 23% to 12%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  2. Q1, 0:35Griffis sacked for a 13-yd lossfumblesQ1, 0:35 · App State 3, East Carolina 73-7score after the play3-7score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference
  3. Q2, 14:17Singleton 4-yd TD runApp State goes ahead 10-7Q2, 14:17 · App State 10, East Carolina 7▲25%App State’s chance to win, 16% to 41%▲25%App State’s chance to win, 16% to 41%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  4. Q2, 8:44Lewis 10-yd TD runApp State leads 17-7Q2, 8:44 · App State 17, East Carolina 7▲2%App State’s chance to win, 47% to 49%▲2%App State’s chance to win, 47% to 49%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  5. Q3, 12:12Webb 13-yd TD runApp State leads 24-10Q3, 12:12 · App State 24, East Carolina 10▲8%App State’s chance to win, 74% to 82%▲8%App State’s chance to win, 74% to 82%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  6. Q3, 10:36Griffis 61-yd TD pass to Dickersoncuts it to 24-17Q3, 10:36 · App State 24, East Carolina 17▼17%App State’s chance to win, 84% to 67%▼17%App State’s chance to win, 84% to 67%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  7. Q4, 13:43Griffis sacked for a 7-yd lossQ4, 13:43 · App State 27, East Carolina 17▲2%App State’s chance to win, 82% to 84%▲2%App State’s chance to win, 82% to 84%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  8. Q4, 9:13Singleton sacked for a 5-yd lossQ4, 9:13 · App State 27, East Carolina 17▼5%App State’s chance to win, 90% to 85%▼5%App State’s chance to win, 90% to 85%Watch from this playSun Belt Conference
  9. Q4, 0:21Griffis 7-yd TD pass to Hamiltoncuts it to 27-24Q4, 0:21 · App State 27, East Carolina 2427-24score after the play27-24score after the playWatch from this playSun Belt Conference

Every drive

App State scored on 5 of its 14 drives; East Carolina on 4 of its 13.

App State’s drives are teal, East Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1East Carolina: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 15Missed FGApp State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 63PuntEast Carolina: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownApp State: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 23Field goalEast Carolina: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 88FumbleApp State: Touchdown, from 12 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2East Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntApp State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntApp State: Punt, from 98 yards out to 76PuntEast Carolina: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 15Field goalApp State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 41Missed FGQ3App State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Carolina: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownApp State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 39PuntEast Carolina: Punt, from 95 yards out to 96PuntApp State: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 19Field goalEast Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 78PuntApp State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 55PuntEast Carolina: Punt, from 80 yards out to 65PuntQ4App State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 41PuntEast Carolina: Punt, from 88 yards out to 93PuntApp State: Punt, from 62 yards out to 58PuntEast Carolina: Interception, from 72 yards out to 23InterceptionApp State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 86PuntEast Carolina: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownApp State: End of game, from 0 yards out to 0End of game

From East Carolina’s side

East Carolina’s best moment: Lewis 2-yd run (Q4 2:11). It lifted East Carolina’s win chance by 18 points.

The winner fell to 11%.

What it cost

App State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 0% to 1%.

Make the playoff

App State · won0% → ▲1%
East Carolina · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

App State · won5% → 5%5%
East Carolina · lost4% → ▼3%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

App State 27, East Carolina 24

App State covered +6.5 by 9.5. The total, 51, stayed under 55.5.

App StateEast CarolinaTotal yardsApp State 396East Carolina 417396417Passing yardsApp State 267East Carolina 230267230Rushing yardsApp State 129East Carolina 187129187First downsApp State 21East Carolina 222122TurnoversApp State 0East Carolina 202Time of possessionApp State 36:06East Carolina 23:5436:0623:54
Team totalsApp StateEast Carolina
Total yards396417
Passing20 of 28, 267 yds21 of 37, 230 yds
Rushing44 for 129 yds35 for 187 yds
First downs2122
Third down5 of 142 of 13
Fourth down0 of 02 of 2
Turnovers02
Penalties13 for 80 yds8 for 72 yds
Time of possession36:0623:54

App State leaders

  • Passing Malachi Singleton 20 of 28, 267 yds
  • Rushing Jaquari Lewis 17 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Treyaun Webb 6 for 20 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Sam Pickett III 4 for 86 yds; Darrin Fugitt 7 for 66 yds

East Carolina leaders

  • Passing Mitch Griffis 21 of 37, 230 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Ashton Gray 16 for 99 yds; Mitch Griffis 11 for 52 yds
  • Receiving Jeremiah Melvin 7 for 94 yds; Jason Dickerson 1 for 61 yds, 1 TD

Feels like 89° to 101° through the game

84° at kickoff · feels like 89° to 101° · no rain recorded

A feels-like 101° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 101°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 101°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 60 other games played at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 77°, with about 7 in 10 games between 69° and 82°.

September game-day temperatures at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4East Carolina favoredApp State favored0%Win chanceEast CarolinaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F75°110°feels like 99°air 91°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4East Carolina favoredApp State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F75°110°feels like 99°air 91°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 14:17 left12:51 p.m.
App State 10, East Carolina 7 · East Carolina 59% to win
no rain · 86°
Singleton 4-yd TD run, App State goes ahead 10-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Pitt-greenville_aprt airport, 2.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

App State · 5-8

Rated 98th in our preseason ratings, 96th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 2-point win over Marshall as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 10-29 vs Georgia Southern #112 of 667

lost by 19 as a 10-point underdog

App State lost 10-29 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 30%, low under 1%, high 30%.

L 29-30 vs Arkansas State #135 of 667

lost by 1 as a 1.5-point underdog

App State lost 29-30 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 57%, low under 1%, high 89%.

W 26-24 vs Marshall #86 of 667

won by 2 as a 3.5-point underdog

App State won 26-24 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 45%, low 17%, high 94%.

L 10-58 @ James MadisonTop 25 #26 of 667

lost by 48 as a 19.5-point underdog

App State lost 10-58 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

L 23-25 vs Georgia Southern #126 of 667

lost by 2 as a 4.5-point favorite

App State lost 23-25 vs Georgia Southern. Chance to win started at 68%, low 4%, high 73%.

L 21-24 @ Old Dominion #78 of 667

lost by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

App State lost 21-24 at Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 21%.

L 37-45 vs Coastal Carolina #133 of 667

lost by 8 as a 10.5-point favorite

App State lost 37-45 vs Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 83%, low 9%, high 97%.

W 41-20 @ Georgia State #141 of 667

won by 21 as a 2.5-point favorite

App State won 41-20 at Georgia State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 37%, high better than 99%.

W 27-23 vs Oregon State #100 of 667

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

App State won 27-23 vs Oregon State. Chance to win started at 64%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 14-47 @ Boise StateTop 25 #55 of 667

lost by 33 as a 17.5-point underdog

App State lost 14-47 at Boise State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 22-38 @ Southern Miss #113 of 667

lost by 16 as a 2.5-point favorite

App State lost 22-38 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 76%.

W 20-13 vs Lindenwood #197 of 667

won by 7 as a 29.5-point favorite

App State won 20-13 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 99%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 34-11 @ Charlotte #145 of 667

won by 23 as an 8.5-point favorite

App State won 34-11 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at 69%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

East Carolina · 9-4

Rated 77th in our preseason ratings, 76th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 6-point win over Pittsburgh as a 13.5-point underdog.

W 23-17 vs PittsburghTop 25 #40 of 667

won by 6 as a 13.5-point underdog

East Carolina won 23-17 vs Pittsburgh. Chance to win started at 23%, low 12%, high better than 99%.

W 42-3 @ Florida Atlantic #136 of 667

won by 39 as a 6.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 42-3 at Florida Atlantic. Chance to win started at 61%, low 59%, high better than 99%.

L 24-58 @ UTSA #54 of 667

lost by 34 as a 2.5-point favorite

East Carolina lost 24-58 at UTSA. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 54%.

W 31-27 vs MemphisTop 25 #43 of 667

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 31-27 vs Memphis. Chance to win started at 65%, low 19%, high better than 99%.

W 48-22 vs Charlotte #227 of 667

won by 26 as a 29.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 48-22 vs Charlotte. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 45-14 @ Temple #141 of 667

won by 31 as a 5.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 45-14 at Temple. Chance to win started at 57%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 41-27 vs Tulsa #156 of 667

won by 14 as a 16.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 41-27 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 90%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

L 19-26 @ TulaneTop 25 #56 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

East Carolina lost 19-26 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 58%.

W 28-6 vs Army #116 of 667

won by 22 as a 3.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 28-6 vs Army. Chance to win started at 68%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

L 13-34 vs BYUTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 21 as a 5.5-point underdog

East Carolina lost 13-34 vs BYU. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 51%.

W 38-0 @ Coastal Carolina #135 of 667

won by 38 as a 7.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 38-0 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 65%, low 56%, high better than 99%.

W 56-3 vs Campbell #244 of 667

won by 53 as a 30.5-point favorite

East Carolina won 56-3 vs Campbell. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 17-24 @ NC State #45 of 667

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

East Carolina lost 17-24 at NC State. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 18%.

Week by week

East Carolina

  • Wk 1Lat Alabama10-48

App State

  • Wk 1Wvs Maine55-3

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: East Carolina’s rushing EPA against App State, 48 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. East Carolina’s EPA/play against App State’s defense

    45 pointsweakerstronger50th

    East Carolina offense, 10th percentile · App State defense, 55th

  2. East Carolina’s rushing EPA against App State’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    East Carolina offense, 8th percentile · App State defense, 56th

  3. East Carolina’s explosive plays against App State’s defense

    31 pointsweakerstronger50th

    East Carolina offense, 53rd percentile · App State defense, 84th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

App StateEast Carolina
EPA/play, offense
App State · 44East Carolina · 10
EPA/play, defense
App State · 55East Carolina · 88
Success rate, offense
App State · 49East Carolina · 9
Success rate, defense
App State · 42East Carolina · 91
Explosive-play rate, offense
App State · 50East Carolina · 53
Explosive-play rate, defense
App State · 84East Carolina · 32
Rush EPA, offense
App State · 24East Carolina · 8
Rush EPA, defense
App State · 56East Carolina · 61
Pass EPA, offense
App State · 66East Carolina · 13
Pass EPA, defense
App State · 49East Carolina · 97

The series

East Carolina leads the series 8-5

13 meetings since 1972 · App State has won the last 3

East Carolina wonApp State won1972: East Carolina by 281973: East Carolina by 351974: App State by 21975: App State by 161976: East Carolina by 281977: East Carolina by 311978: East Carolina by 251979: East Carolina by 172009: East Carolina by 52012: East Carolina by 222021: App State by 142023: App State by 152024: App State by 219722024
  • 2024App State 21-19East Carolina lost 19-21 vs App State. Chance to win started at 51%, low 11%, high 88%.
  • 2023App State 43-28East Carolina lost 28-43 at App State. Chance to win started at 34%, low under 1%, high 69%.
  • 2021App State 33-19East Carolina lost 19-33 at App State. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 40%.
  • 2012East Carolina 35-13
  • 2009East Carolina 29-24

Each line is East Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. East Carolina is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

East Carolina fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (100th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 59%
  • Line · 70%
  • East Carolina fans · 100th
  • App State fans · 96th

East Carolina favored by 6.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

East Carolina by 6.5, on the usual path until 1:56 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward App State.

opened −11.5now −6.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 56.5now 55.5

Spread: −11.5 → −6.5 · Total: 56.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 95° at kickoff.

App State at East Carolina · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville

  • 95°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 55weather score, Rough
  • Middleof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's seven kickoff times. At Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 88, against 55 at noon.

  • noon: 55, Rough (this game)
  • 1 pm: 51, Rough
  • 2 pm: 46, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 48, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 75, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 85, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

East Carolina is worth +4.0 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.

43% at home, 36% on the road against FBS opponents (18-24 home, 17-30 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 245 miles to get here.

Where next