Tulane11-3CFP #20

Cautious optimism is building around Tulane.

belief warmed ↑ 1.3vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Leaning up
59/100 · 37 mentions · top 20% of FBS
~ our read
Grounding
backed by facts
8% cite a stat · 6% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 25 pts
~ our read
The model
#57
CFB Zeitgeist · +2.8
✓ measured
Explore all 2 corners of the fanbase ↓
4
identity shift

Tulane: the fanbase's identity shifting.

Sumrall's second season opens with a 11-3 record — the question is whether Tulane's new identity can sustain its historic-southern-football legacy beyond the Fritz era.

Hope-Doping·Offseason

Tulane helped found the Sugar Bowl and the SEC, then nearly drowned — a hurricane-battered, win-starved program that came back from the dead to make the first 12-team Playoff, becoming the first Louisiana team ever to crash the field.

AP Top 25#17 AP

Across town and up the road sits LSU, the SEC giant that swallowed all of Louisiana's football oxygen after Tulane walked away from the conference. Fans believe the state forgot the Green Wave existed…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - Tulane

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production15%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#68 nationally247 composite 650.9
Portal Additions20No clear position repair point
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: DL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#64Depth class
CBin 3 - Justin Agu3.60out 3 - Jahiem Johnson4.00Even
current room: 179 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 3 - Destyn Hill4.28out 3 - Shazz Preston3.90Even
current room: 181 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Jaylin Lucas3.70out 3 - Javin Gordon3.60Even
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Reshad Sterling3.49out 3 - Joshua Brantley3.60Downgrade
IOLin 2 - Gavin Marks3.50out 3 - Shadre Hurst3.70Downgrade
current room: 293 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - Ed Smith IV3.30out 3 - Santana Hopper3.70Starter Risk
current room: 284 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
2019 seasonW 27-24 vs South Alabama (Wk 2)L 24-27 vs Navy (Wk 3)W 66-24 vs Southern Miss (Wk 4)L 31-49 vs Houston (Wk 6)L 34-37 vs SMU (Wk 7)L 34-51 vs UCF (Wk 8)W 38-3 vs Temple (Wk 9)W 38-21 vs East Carolina (Wk 10)W 38-12 vs Army (Wk 11)L 24-30 vs Tulsa (Wk 12)W 35-21 vs Memphis (Wk 14)L 27-38 vs Nevada (Wk 17)HIGHLOW
2020 seasonW 42-14 vs Florida International (Wk 1)L 6-24 vs Auburn (Wk 2)W 58-6 vs Missouri State (Wk 3)W 38-31 vs Houston (Wk 4)W 42-33 vs Army (Wk 6)W 49-7 vs UConn (Wk 7)L 17-47 vs Memphis (Wk 8)L 38-41 vs Navy (Wk 9)W 38-26 vs Tulsa (Wk 10)L 21-29 vs Temple (Wk 12)L 31-34 vs UCF (Wk 13)L 20-37 vs SMU (Wk 14)W 30-13 vs Southern Miss (Wk 19)HIGHLOW
2019 offseasonWk 34Wk 4494th17th
2020 season · 6W-6L2019 season · 7W-6L2020 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons

Approaching

30 days

until kickoff · at Duke · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC

The experience

Tulane is the New Orleans private university whose 1925 Sugar Bowl founding + Willie Fritz 2022 12-2 Cotton Bowl championship + Yulman Stadium urban-campus identity define what historic-southern-football looks like.

Offense: StrongDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Tulane's 2026 season hinges on transfer integration and depth class recruitment

With a returning total pct of 15% and a recruiting rank of #64, Tulane faces challenges in maintaining consistency. The team's heavy reliance on transfers, including 20 incoming and 27 outgoing players, underscores the need for effective integration.

  • Roster reloadTulane has a transfer_in_total of 20 and a transfer_out_total of 27, indicating a net portal exporter status.
Data as of 2026-08-03 · Validated against program evidence

Riptide the Pelican is patient.

Tulane · the story right now 10 storylines developing

What Tulane's coaching hire is really about

the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

coachingthis cycle~readnew

Will Hall, who led Southern Miss to an 11-3 season and a #17 AP ranking, inherits a 15% production roster at Tulane — the program's third head coach in five.

what happenedWill Hall took over as Tulane's head coach, replacing Jon Sumrall. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew

Sumrall's second season opens with a 11-3 record — the question is whether Tulane's new identity can sustain its historic-southern-football legacy beyond the Fritz era.

what happenedTulane: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew

Anthony Brown is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Jon Sumrall's second season at Tulane follows an 11-3 campaign and a #17 AP finish, with coordinator changes reshaping units as the program builds on its historic-southern-football identity.

what happenedTulane: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew

Jamauri McClure: a closer signal screened this season.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

Javin Gordon: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Omari Hayes is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Shazz Preston is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Tulane enters 2025 at No. 45 in SP+ — the 11-3 record under Jon Sumrall sets a high bar for a team replacing nearly all its production.

what happenedTulane enters 2025 rated No. 45 in SP+ (+6.3). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Tulane enters 2026 — bottom-quintile returning production creates a stark contrast to the 11-3 record and #17 AP finish that defined Jon Sumrall's first season at the helm.

what happenedTulane enters 2026 rated No. 45 in 2025 SP+ (+6.3). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredTulane's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downTulane's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downTulane's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

The Offseason Ledger · Tulane

2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Tulane QB race narrowed to four

    Four QBs still in the mix this late into camp — Sumrall's depth philosophy is real, but a QB room without a settled starter is a DL pressure problem waiting to compound. Leadership culture only travels so far without a signal-caller who owns the room.

    Jul 26Reported
  2. Recruiting

    Duncan commits to Tulane

    Sumrall's building depth where the pressure is real — a DL class ranked 74th nationally needs bodies who can push the rotation if Tulane's top-45 SP+ ceiling is going to hold.

Transfer portal snapshot

-3.9 net portal points
(raw ledger: -25.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
DL
-7.5
starter risk
EDGE
-6.2
IOL
-5.9
S
-3.7
low confidence
TE
-2.7
OT
+2.5
LS
-1.0
low confidence
P
-1.0
low confidence
CB
-0.4
WR
+0.4
LB
-0.2
RB
+0.2
QB
-0.0
K
+0.0

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Tylan George
IOL · West Monroe, LA
#434 national
★★★★☆
Jordyn Crites
DL · Friendswood, TX
#455 national
★★★☆☆
Aiden Martin
OT · Tulsa, OK
#833 national

Among the stronger offseasons on record for this program

80th percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
80th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
Fans 20pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#53 in field+25000
AAC title#5 in market+600

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

Tulane · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Tulane · Coaching Confidence

The Will Hall story at Tulane won't sit still.

Will Hall took over as Tulane's head coach, replacing Jon Sumrall. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.

near-unanimous belief where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 17% volume
Developing3 new this week
yesterdayFULL INTERVIEW: Tulane kicks off fall camp under first-year head coach Will Hall — WDSU
yesterdayTulane Fall Ball Begins With Will Hall at the Helm — Sports Illustrated
yesterdayTulane head coach Will Hall recaps the Green Wave’s first day of fall camp — Yahoo Sports
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Jon Sumrall Out
“Tulane Head Coach Jon Sumrall and Family Make $100,000 Gift to Support Hall, Green Wave Talent Fund” — Tulane University Athletics · 2025-12-15
Behind Him
“Hall Looking to Put Past Records Behind Him in First Season with Tulane” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-31
Hall Looking
“Hall Looking to Put Past Records Behind Him in First Season with Tulane” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-31
Put Past Records
“Hall Looking to Put Past Records Behind Him in First Season with Tulane” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-31
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Will Hall, who led Southern Miss to an 11-3 season and a #17 AP ranking, inherits a 15% production roster at Tulane — the program's third head coach in five.
Source of record: Will Hall took over as Tulane's head coach, replacing Jon Sumrall — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loudThe Dominoes active
📣Believers4 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“Culture outlasts coach: Why Tulane believes winning sustains in Will Hall era”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-28 · read ↗
“FULL INTERVIEW: Tulane kicks off fall camp under first-year head coach Will Hall”
WDSU · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Tulane Fall Ball Begins With Will Hall at the Helm”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards17% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.

This event was in 22 of 129 board posts (17%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"We have discussed this we support and root for Tulane football but if someone wants to make delusional comments it will start the debate anew. I think it’s important to acknowledge"
goTULA.NEt ~ fan take
"We have discussed this we support and root for Tulane football but if someone wants to make delusional comments it will start the debate anew. I think it’s important to acknowledge"
goTULA.NEt ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

🔗The dominoes11 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Tulane Football Transfer Portal Review Part Two: How They’ll Fit”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-07-24 · read ↗
“Tulane Football Transfer Portal Review: Part One”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-07-21 · read ↗
Following now · Tulane · Developing Confidence

Tulane: the fanbase's identity shifting.

Tulane: the fanbase's identity shifting.

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Sumrall's second season opens with a 11-3 record — the question is whether Tulane's new identity can sustain its historic-southern-football legacy beyond the Fritz era.
Source of record: Tulane: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards loud
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Tulane Quarterback Room Blends Veterans With Rising Talent”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“FULL INTERVIEW: Tulane kicks off fall camp under first-year head coach Will Hall”
WDSU · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Tulane Fall Ball Begins With Will Hall at the Helm”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards36% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.

This event was in 47 of 129 board posts (36%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"We have discussed this we support and root for Tulane football but if someone wants to make delusional comments it will start the debate anew. I think it’s important to acknowledge"
goTULA.NEt ~ fan take
"We have discussed this we support and root for Tulane football but if someone wants to make delusional comments it will start the debate anew. I think it’s important to acknowledge"
goTULA.NEt ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Warming

Four of five. The board favors this trend.

Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 8-2
The forecast

Opens Sep 5

vs Duke · away

Season line7.5 winsover +120
StrongSolidBend-don't-break

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

LSU
Mixed
-4
Battle for the Rag

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

20
GA · 4AL · 2CA · 2FL · 2LA · 2TN · 2TX · 2CT · 1+3 more

GA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

79 signees across 15 states, 2023-2026. LA leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Tulane Defeats Memphis 38-32
823 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] Tulane Defeats ECU 26-19
379 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] Tulane Defeats Army 24-17
228 upvotes · Oct 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 55% never transferred. B
See the class →
Voter spread

63 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #15, Alex Taylor (Wyoming Tribune Eagle), to #25, Steven Johnson (Fort Worth Star-Telegram). 3 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.

National spotlight

12 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 5 ESPN, 1 cable, 5 streaming

Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 4 afternoon, 6 primetime

Fumble luck

56% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.

9 of 16 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

23% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.

13 interceptions of 57 disrupted passes (44 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

96 penalties committed, 77 drawn on opponents — ceding 215 yards of field position.

895 penalty yards committed vs. 680 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site