CFB Zeitgeist Score
31
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 84th percentile.
Jaylin Lucas
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
160 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 27 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Florida State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Florida State
Returning around him
- 13% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 1 Florida State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -21 net (22 in / 43 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Florida State · Last season: 5-7 (AP #25) · Talent rank #19 · 2026 recruiting class #19
RB · FLORIDA STATE · ACC
Jaylin Lucas
- 3
- #12
- 5-9 | 173 lb
- Houma, LA
Heisman Heat
#3123
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
★
2022
Indiana · RB
R12 · All-American
Elite
2023
Indiana · RB
—
2025
Florida State · RB
—
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025-41%
Sharp dropoff (-41%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8626 | No. 946 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8626
#946 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jaylin Lucas
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
62
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jaylin Lucas
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
160Rush yards
27Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
13.3Rush yards
2Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
173.3Rush yards
29Carries
0Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 160): needs 590/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 160): needs 840/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 160): needs 1,340/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 15/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 20/game over remaining 1.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jaylin Lucas is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 160 rushing yards, 11 catches, and 239 return yards for Florida State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
27 46th
YDS
160 50th
YPC
5.9 83rd
TD
0 40th
Receiving
REC
11 65th
YDS
88 66th
YPR
8.0 63rd
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 31-17vs Alabama | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 2 | W 77-3vs East Texas A&M | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 4 | W 66-10vs Kent State | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 26 | Season-high 44 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 38-46@ Virginia | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 6 | L 22-28vs Miami | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Pittsburgh | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-20@ Stanford | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 10 | W 42-7vs Wake Forest | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 11 | L 10-24@ Clemson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 12 | W 34-14vs Virginia Tech | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 13 | L 11-21@ NC State | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-40@ Florida | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Total | 27 | 160 | 6.5 | 0 | 26 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Indiana4-8HC: Tom Allen · Pass-leaning
2023Indiana3-9HC: Tom Allen · Run-leaning
2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 27 | 160 | 5.9 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Indiana | 67 | 275 | 4.1 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Indiana | 49 | 271 | 5.5 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 143 | 706 | 4.9 | 4 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 11 | 88 | 8.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Indiana | 34 | 247 | 7.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2022 | Indiana | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 61 | 417 | 6.8 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 160 | #367/735 | 50th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #447/739 | 40th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.9 | #126/735 | 83rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 11 | #195/552 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 88 | #190/548 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 5.0% | #539/738 | 27th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 27 | #398/739 | 46th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 26 | #327/733 | 56th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 64 | #23/540 | 96th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 8.0 | #206/548 | 63rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 221 | #33/200 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 24.6 | #30/199 | 85th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 18 | #20/27 | 30th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 9 | #34/206 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 6.0 | #18/27 | 37th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Punt returns | 3 | #15/29 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 6.2% | #514/738 | 30th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 5.5% | #429/738 | 42nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 5.4% | #618/738 | 16th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.8% | #562/738 | 24th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.8% | #569/738 | 23rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.6% | #184/738 | 75th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 3.8% | #507/738 | 31st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 15.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 10.4 | 5.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 21.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
| Losses7g | 7.9 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 16.8 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 9.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
31Below cohort
Elite: yards / carry (84th). Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jaylin LucasFlorida StateTae MeadowsTroy· 49% simKamari MoultonIowa· 49% simRashod DubinionApp State· 49% sim
Yards / carry
Rec yards
Fumbles lost
Receptions
Long run
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Norvell
Pass share
40.3%
339 pass / 502 run
Plays / game
70.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.5%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2023
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2025
Mike Norvell
Florida State
Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHouma, LA
Height5'9"
Weight173 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey12
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFlorida State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🥇
ALL-AMERICA
Named All-American (2022)
3 selectors honored him
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
3 All-America selections
National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | All-America (USA Today) | all_america | Indiana | USA Today | first | AP-RET |
| 2022 | All-America (CBS) | all_america | Indiana | CBS | first | AP-RET |
| 2022 | All-America (WCFF) | all_america | Indiana | WCFF | first | AP-RET |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Florida State | RB3 | #3123 | #3432 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Indiana | RB3 | #1004 | #1363 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Indiana | RB3 | #1226 | #1687 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 12 | 5-9 | 173 lb | Houma, LA |
| 2024 | Florida State | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 12 | 5-9 | 173 lb | Houma, LA |
| 2023 | Indiana | Big Ten | RB | 3 | No. 12 | 5-9 | 173 lb | Houma, LA |
| 2022 | Indiana | Big Ten | RB | 3 | No. 12 | 5-9 | 173 lb | Houma, LA |