Tulane at Charlotte
Tulane (3‑3) at Charlotte (1‑6) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Tulane (84%). Tulane’s offense is at the 100th percentile on explosive plays; Charlotte’s defense is at the 37th.
How they got here
Last three games
Tulane · 3-3
Rated 75th in our preseason ratings, 75th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Charlotte · 1-6
Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 196th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Temple as a 17.5-point underdog.
L 41-43 vs The Citadel #210 of 668
lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Tulane’s explosive plays against Charlotte, 63 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulane’s explosive plays against Charlotte’s defense
Tulane offense, 100th percentile · Charlotte defense, 37th
Charlotte’s EPA/play against Tulane’s defense
Charlotte offense, 3rd percentile · Tulane defense, 36th
Tulane’s rushing EPA against Charlotte’s defense
Tulane offense, 45th percentile · Charlotte defense, 7th
What’s at stake
Tulane
- Tulane is 2 games back in American Athletic with 4 left to make it up.
- Tulane is coming off a 14-point win.
Charlotte
- Charlotte is 2 games back in American Athletic with 4 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of Charlotte’s biggest of the season — a 121-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Tulane leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2024 · Tulane has won the last 2
- 2025Tulane 27-0
- 2024Tulane 34-3
Each line is Charlotte’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Tulane
The chip · vs big brotherAcross town and up the road sits LSU, the SEC giant that swallowed all of Louisiana's football oxygen after Tulane walked away from the conference. Fans believe the state forgot the Green Wave existed — and that crashing the Playoff was the loudest possible way to remind everyone New Orleans has a team of its own.
What this game touches
Talent that keeps leaving as soon as it works. Tulane finally got good again — a 2022 Cotton Bowl run, an 11-3 2025, back-to-back AAC titles — but the success keeps walking out the door: Willie Fritz left for Houston, then Jon Sumrall left for Florida the moment he reached the Playoff, forcing Tulane to promote Will Hall and start the cycle again.
Charlotte
The chip · vs the national mediaNiner fans say the rest of the sport treats a program this young like it doesn't count — and they point to the biggest, fastest-growing city in the Carolinas and ask why a metro this size shouldn't eventually have a real football team.
What this game touches
The 1-11 first year of the Albin era. Tim Albin arrived from a MAC-champion Ohio program and went 1-11 (0-8 American) in his debut — a single win that laid bare how far the young 49ers still are from the bowl team they flashed in 2019.
Best players
Tulane
- Dickson Agu (LB) · 56 tackles
- Kevin Adams (S) · 54 tackles
- Jack Tchienchou (S) · 37 tackles
Charlotte
- Gavin Willis (LB) · 53 tackles
- Kadin Schmitz (LB) · 47 tackles
- Collin Gill (DB) · 43 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Charlotte fans are in a better mood than Tulane fans (90th vs 50th among FBS fanbases), even with Tulane favored.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Jerry Richardson Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 89
Tulane at Charlotte · Friday, Oct. 30 · 7 pm ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Jerry Richardson Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 89, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 89, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Charlotte has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.
36% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (14-25 home, 12-37 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -8.1 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 659 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Charlotte
- Wk 3Lat App State21-26
- Wk 4Lvs Louisiana7-34
- Wk 5Lvs Memphis8-59
- Wk 6Lat North Texas10-50
- Wk 7Wat Temple38-31
Tulane
- Wk 2Wvs South Alabama28-24
- Wk 3Lat Kansas State20-31
- Wk 4Wvs Southern Miss24-21
- Wk 6Lat Army17-20
- Wk 7Wvs Memphis31-17
Power rating by week
Tulane is rated 9.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.