Indiana

3-0AP #5

Big Ten · Curt Cignetti, year 3 (30-2) · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 52,656 · 54,521 avg in 2026

The nationAP #5 · Coaches #4down 1 from last week
The model#6 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #4 (+25.8) · FPI #5
The marketIndiana by 20.5vs Northwestern · our model 76% Indiana · a number, not a pick

LastW 38–0 vs Western Kentucky · Sat Sep 19 · Turbo Richard 149 rush yds, 1 TD

Nextvs Northwestern · Fri Sep 25 · 8 pm ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana by 20.5 · series 36-47-1, won the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Indiana · 2026 schedule & results3-0
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#8#135-40.5North TexasW 52–16 1131-00-0
2Sep 12#8#236-57.5HowardW 55–0 1092-00-0
3Sep 19#10#52-44.5Western KentuckyW 38–0 1273-00-0
4Sep 26#6#15-20.5Northwestern
5Oct 4#6#92@Rutgers
6Oct 10@Nebraska
7Oct 17Ohio State
8Oct 24@Michigan
9Oct 31Minnesota
11Nov 14USC
12Nov 21@Washington
13Nov 28Purdue
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 19Western KentuckyW 38–0513034:51+0.32248.5%123.4%Season-low EPA/play
Sep 12HowardW 55–0505133:36+0.53054.8%152.4%Best success rate
Sep 5North TexasW 52–16365022:38+0.65452.2%164.0%Season-high EPA/play
Season average (3 games)4610.3+0.50251.8%146.6%
Verdict Begins·Live

Indiana is the reigning national champion — a sentence a century-long basketball school still has no muscle memory for saying.

AP Poll#5 AP

The same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer — roughly, 'I win, look it up' — became the fanbase's whole…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Weeks 1–33-0, all at homeW 55–0 vs Howard · Sat Sep 12
Ahead
Sat Oct 17AP #7 Ohio Statevs Ohio State · at home
Sat Oct 24AP #18 Michiganat Michigan · on the road
Sat Nov 28Old Oaken Bucketvs Purdue · at home

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 16-0 · last season

Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate4-0some dramain one-score games (4 of 16)9th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+29.9comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo66uptempooffensive plays / game3rd fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.24some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd51,184avg attendance13th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten

✓ measured from 16 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Indiana has won five straight.

Hot. 10-0 over the last 10, and won the last ten.

Streak W10Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 10-0
I enjoy seeing the investment they’re making in their facilities definitely shows their commitment to helping student-athletes succeed
McGee · On33 days after Indiana's 2026 game against Western Kentucky
The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Northwestern · at home

Season line10.5 winsover -130
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlElite

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total2 booksO/U 10.5
CFP championship#7 in field+800
Big Ten title#2 in market+230

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Indiana · the story right now 11 storylines developing

What Indiana's season is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

governance shockthis cycle~readnew

Curt Cignetti, in his third season at Indiana, faces the challenge of maintaining the program's national power status after a 16-0 season that defied expectations.

what happenedIndiana: an outside ruling reshaping the program's season. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew

Charlie Becker is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.

our readdeveloping

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Elijah Sarratt is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Elijah Sarratt is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Kaelon Black does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

our readbackground

short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew

Kaelon Black: a short yardage signal screened this season.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Omar Cooper Jr.: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew

Riley Nowakowski is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Roman Hemby does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

our readbackground

short yardage2025 cycle~attributednew

Roman Hemby converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.

our readbackground

program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew

Indiana enters 2025 at No. 1 in SP+ — the gap between its top ranking and #72 talent is the story Curt Cignetti must answer in the Big Ten.

what happenedIndiana enters 2025 rated No. 1 in SP+ (+32.4), up 10 spots from 2024. ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedIndiana's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredIndiana's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downIndiana's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Indiana · 2026

Indiana's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.

Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

Rival pulse

Purdue
Bullish
+21
Old Oaken Bucket

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Indiana is the basketball school whose football team won the national championship — 16-0, the longest perfect season by a major-college champion since at least 1972 (Michigan went 15-0 in 2023), and the most-improbable dynasty origin story in modern CFB.

Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Elite
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 8Climbed to No. 3 in the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 30-20 at Oregon4 · from No. 7
  • 2025 · Wk 5Climbed to No. 11 in the AP Top 25Week 4 · Won 63-10 at home over Illinois8 · from No. 19
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Indiana

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production17%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#38 nationally247 composite 735.3
Portal Additions17Primary repair: S
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss8Heavy NFL Draft loss (8) — 3 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#29Development class
EDGEin 3 - Tobi Osunsanmi4.50out 5 - Andrew Depaepe4.28Starter Risk
Speed Rusher2025 profilewins the corner before the tackle can set
Homegrown
WRin 2 - Nick Marsh4.50out 4 - Makai Jackson3.60Starter Risk
current room: 199 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession Receiver2025 profilemoves the chains on third down
CBin 2 - A.J. Harris4.12out 2 - Dontrae Henderson2.00Upgrade
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Former four-star
DLin 1 - Joe Hjelle3.50out 2 - Hosea Wheeler4.25Downgrade
current room: 270 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Base2025 profilewins his gap play after play
our read Two-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
Sin 2 - Preston Zachman3.60out 1 - Jah Jah Boyd3.50Upgrade
Hybrid Nickel2024 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
IOLin 1 - Joe Brunner4.38out 1 - Mitch Verstegen3.49Even
current room: 298 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
QB · departedFernando Mendoza2★ · Rd 1, Pk 1
Projected starter
TE · departedRiley NowakowskiRd 5, Pk 29
nowBlake Thiry3★ · FR
Next man up
WR · departedOmar Cooper Jr.4★ · Rd 1, Pk 30
nowTyler Morris4★ · SR
Projected starter
Full roster (104 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Indiana

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Court ruling clears 2 DL for Indiana

    Eight draftees already thinned the two-deep, and now two DL are cleared — Cignetti didn't need depth at every position, but he needed it here.

  2. Recruiting

    Top-10 QB commits to Indiana

    Cignetti just dropped 8 draftees and still lands a top-10 QB — that's not rebuilding, that's a program that recruits like it already arrived.

    Jul 23Reported
  3. News

    Cignetti updates eligibility, position battles

    Cignetti's sorting out who actually belongs on the two-deep after eight draftees walked out — position battles this early mean the WR pressure is real, not just noise.

    Aug 24Reported
  4. News

    Indiana makes roster move amid eligibility fight

    Federal eligibility ruling hits different when you're No. 1 in SP+ and already down 8 drafted starters — getting that defender back isn't a luxury, it's structural for a roster trying to reload at the top.

  5. News

    Indiana OL Carter Smith injury update

    Eight draftees already gutted the depth chart — the last thing Cignetti needs heading into Big Ten play is a question mark at the one position holding that rebuilt line together.

    Aug 20Reported
  6. News

    Nick Marsh named WR1 for Indiana

    Eight draftees out, a reshuffled coordinator scheme coming in — Marsh stepping into WR1 tells you the development class has to grow up fast, not eventually.

    Aug 19Reported
Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

+11.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: +16.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
CB
+4.7
DL
-4.0
RB
+3.8
low confidence
OT
-3.7
low confidence
S
+3.7
TE
+3.7
low confidence
K
+3.3
low confidence
EDGE
+1.4
starter risk
LS
+1.0
low confidence
P
+1.0
low confidence
IOL
+0.9
QB
+0.8
WR
-0.2
starter risk
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Gabe Hill
DL · Naperville, IL
#213 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 11 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Henry Ohlinger
ATH · Columbus, OH
#264 national
★★★★☆
Kasmir Hicks
CB · Indianapolis, IN
#277 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

23
IN · 7FL · 3OH · 3GA · 2IL · 2MD · 2WI · 2KY · 1+1 more

IN leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

83 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. IN leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWI5MI1NYMAORNVWYSDIAIL7IN22OH8PA2NJCTCA2UTCONEMO2KY1WVVA2MD3DERI1AZNMKSARTN4NC2SC1DCOKLA1MS1ALGA7AKHITX1FL10
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 9.1% of every high-school FBS signee IN produced over those cycles — second only to Ball State, 8 signees back. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Indiana player grew up 209 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

28th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%72–481 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi29%28 of 98 players
Farthest996 miJamari Sharpe · Miami, FL
Closest1 miBryce Taylor · Bloomington, IN

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 98 of 104 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns IN · 2026 roster

32% of the Indiana roster grew up in IN.

33 of 102 players, drawn from 22 states in all. That is the 63rd-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

IN · 33OH · 9GA · 8FL · 7IL · 7WI · 7VA · 5TX · 4+14 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

102 players across 22 states. Biggest pull outside IN: OH (9).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMN1WI7MI2NYMAORNVWYSDIA2IL7IN33OH9PA2NJ1CTCAUTCONEMO1KY1WVVA5MD3DERIAZNMKS1AR1TN3NC1SCDCOKLA1MSAL2GA8AKHITX4FL7
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 2 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Recruiting & portal buzz

Indiana QB Alberto Mendoza has entered the transfer portal
2,615 upvotes · Jan 2026
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has declared for the NFL Draft
2,315 upvotes · Jan 2026
Indiana Wide Receiver Omar Cooper Jr has declared for the NFL Draft
309 upvotes · Jan 2026

Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2022 class: 1 drafted so far, 60% never transferred. A
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

34th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
34th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
10.5
Vegas O/U wins
(98th among FBS)
Market 64pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 2 books
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #1, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette), to #8, Brett McMurphy (Action Network).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

9 penalties committed, 18 drawn on opponents — netting a 67-yard field-position edge.

78 penalty yards committed vs. 145 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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