Indiana at Michigan
Indiana (#6, 6‑1) at Michigan (4‑2) — Indiana is favored by 7.5. Michigan’s offense is at the 32nd percentile on efficiency; Indiana’s defense is at the 89th.
How they got here
Last three games
Indiana · 6-1
Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 3rd now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Michigan · 4-2
Rated 19th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Michigan’s EPA/play against Indiana, 57 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Michigan’s EPA/play against Indiana’s defense
Michigan offense, 32nd percentile · Indiana defense, 89th
Michigan’s passing EPA against Indiana’s defense
Michigan offense, 32nd percentile · Indiana defense, 81st
Michigan’s explosive plays against Indiana’s defense
Michigan offense, 42nd percentile · Indiana defense, 6th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Michigan leads the series 62-11
73 meetings since 1900 · Indiana won the last meeting
- 2024Indiana 20-15
- 2023Michigan 52-7
- 2022Michigan 31-10
- 2021Michigan 29-7
- 2020Indiana 38-21
Each line is Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Indiana
The chip · vs the national mediaThe same voices who called 2024 a fluke and 2025 a soft schedule are still waiting for Indiana to fall back to earth. Cignetti's answer — roughly, 'I win, look it up' — became the fanbase's whole posture.
What this game touches
A century as the Big Ten's football afterthought. From 1887 to 2023 Indiana had never won 11 games or reached the playoff; the football program was a punchline at a basketball blue blood. Cignetti inverted it in two seasons — but the long irrelevance is the backdrop every win is still measured against.
Michigan
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has heard for two years that the 2023 title carries an asterisk and that Michigan is a story the rest of the sport gets to narrate; Michigan Men say the ledger answers all of it, and that the program that has done this longer than anyone doesn't need the panels' permission.
Best players
Indiana
- Charlie Becker (WR) · 694 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 50th (+20000)
- Isaiah Jones (LB) · 51 tackles
- Rolijah Hardy (LB) · 49 tackles
Michigan
- Troy Bowles (LB) · 50 tackles
- JJ Buchanan (WR) · 482 receiving yards
- Nathaniel Staehling (LB) · 34 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Indiana: Turbo Richard (643 rushing yards).
The total has moved down 10.0 points since opening (52.5 → 42.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Indiana fans are in a better mood than Michigan fans (66th vs 38th among FBS fanbases), even with Michigan favored.
- Model · 51%
- Line · 27%
- Michigan fans · 38th
- Indiana fans · 66th
Indiana favored by 7.5 · Total 42.5
Indiana by 7.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Indiana’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Indiana at Michigan · Saturday, Oct. 24 · noon ET · FOX · Michigan Stadium.
- 61°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 8 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Michigan Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 84.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 84, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Michigan is worth +4.2 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 53rd percentile.
86% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (50-8 home, 25-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 258 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Michigan
- Wk 2Wvs Oklahoma17-10
- Wk 3Wvs UTEP52-17
- Wk 4Lvs Iowa19-20
- Wk 5Lat Minnesota14-20
- Wk 7Wvs Penn State21-18
Indiana
- Wk 3Wvs Western Kentucky38-0
- Wk 4Wvs Northwestern29-23
- Wk 5Wat Rutgers47-15
- Wk 6Wat Nebraska20-17
- Wk 7Lvs Ohio State15-19
Power rating by week
Indiana is rated 7.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Indiana.
The total fell 10 points.
Spread: +6 → +7.5 · Total: 52.5 → 42.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Michigan 27, Indiana 20Oct 14, 2017
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.