Indiana 20-17 Nebraska (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Indiana · Nebraska

No. 7 Indiana6-020

Nebraska5-117Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), Lincoln, Neb. · Crowd 85,653

No. 7 Indiana beat Nebraska 20-17 after its win chance fell to 10%.

Winners have been down to 10% or less in about 1 of every 11 games since 2018.

We had Indiana favored. It won.

Next: Indiana lost to Ohio State 19-15, Sat Oct 17

Next: Nebraska lost to Oregon 17-14, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

I'm proud of them but this sucks :(

Q4 1:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Hoover 44-yd TD pass to Marsh, Indiana goes ahead 20-17 (Q4, 7:13). Indiana went from 41% to 74% to win. Fans right then: “Kirk would have punted there” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Indiana a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Indiana was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

75-yard TD pass

Indiana · Q4 11:51

FinalIndiana 20-17 NebraskaIndiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 12:01Colandrea 39-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 17-6Indiana 30% → 10% (−20)
2Q4 11:51Hoover 75-yd TD pass to Marsh, cuts it to 17-13Indiana 10% → 39% (+29)
3Q4 7:134th and 1Hoover 44-yd TD pass to Marsh, Indiana goes ahead 20-17Indiana 41% → 74% (+33)

The three plays that swung it

1Q4 12:01Colandrea 39-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 17-6Nebraska 70% → 90% (+20)
2Q4 11:51Hoover 75-yd TD pass to Marsh, cuts it to 17-13Nebraska 90% → 61% (−29)
3Q4 7:134th and 1Hoover 44-yd TD pass to Marsh, Indiana goes ahead 20-17Nebraska 59% → 26% (−33)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:20Fans argue a clear DPI call was missed on Colandrea's pass before Cunanan missed the field goalBro Cunanan isn’t good, how are we still in this kicking position with no options?r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:36Fans debate if Archie Wilson's punt is a touchback after a penaltySecond punt was even better!!!r/CFB game thread
Q4 11:41Fans argue a roughing penalty on Colandrea's pass is bogusThat’s not roughing. What the hell was he supposed to do? His momentum is taking him down towards the QB. Is he supposed to arrest his momentum in the air to jump over the dude he…r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:47Fans rip Rhule's decision to go for it on 4th and 6 instead of puntingNeutrals. This is Rhule. He panics and can’t coach in-game.r/CFB game threadKirk would have punted therer/CFB game thread
Q4 1:15Colandrea sacked for turnover on downs, ending Nebraska's final driveQuoted at the top of the page.

Indiana’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Indiana -9.5), at 65% for Indiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Nebraska or Indiana flair (3,218 and 2,467); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Indiana’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Indiana scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Nebraska on 3 of its 11.

Indiana’s drives are teal, Nebraska’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Nebraska’s side

Nebraska’s best moment: Colandrea 39-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 17-6 (Q4 12:01). It lifted Nebraska’s win chance by 20 points.

How Nebraska fans took it: “Every year this is said and every year SEC teams lose in the playoffs to big ten teams” r/CFB game thread

“Let's not act like this is over”

An Indiana fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

Written off

“Stick a fork in us, we're done”

An Indiana fan, when Indiana’s chance of winning was 10% in the fourth quarter

Indiana won 20-17.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Indiana fans

hoover“Make a decent throw and Marsh is taking that 98 to the house. Hoover is not it”

secondary“Nebraska’s secondary having a hard time keeping their hands to themselves in coverage.”

daunted“We may have been SLIGHTLY daunted okay? Nobody is never anything cmon guys.”

throw“Make a decent throw and Marsh is taking that 98 to the house. Hoover is not it”

Nebraska fans

refs“Que the classic “Matt Rhule timeout to yell at the refs that always gains him favor””

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, call, ball, half.

Too close to call on 69% of plays. The winner fell to 10%.

What it cost

Indiana’s chance to make the playoff rose from 24% to 34%.

Make the playoff

Indiana · won24% → ▲34%

Nebraska · lost19% → ▼10%

Win the conference

Indiana · won10% → ▲15%

Nebraska · lost8% → ▼4%

Win the title

Indiana · won1% → 1%

Nebraska · lost1% → ▼0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17

Nebraska covered +9.5 by 6.5. The total, 37, stayed under 48.5.

Team totals	Indiana	Nebraska
Total yards	328	391
Passing	12 of 22, 263 yds	25 of 44, 263 yds
Rushing	22 for 65 yds	39 for 128 yds
First downs	13	25
Third down	1 of 10	10 of 19
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 3
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	3 for 35 yds	7 for 59 yds
Time of possession	20:27	39:33

Indiana leaders

Passing Josh Hoover 12 of 22, 263 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Lee Beebe 9 for 31 yds; Josh Hoover 5 for 24 yds
Receiving Nick Marsh 6 for 187 yds, 2 TD; Charlie Becker 3 for 52 yds

Nebraska leaders

Passing Anthony Colandrea 25 of 43, 263 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jamal Rule 15 for 53 yds; Anthony Colandrea 17 for 47 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jacory Barney Jr. 9 for 108 yds; Luke Lindenmeyer 7 for 45 yds

No rain through the game

79° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 66 other games played at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 53° and 76°.

October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 7:13 left2:07 p.m.

Indiana 20, Nebraska 17 · Nebraska 26% to win

no rain · 89°

Hoover 44-yd TD pass to Marsh, Indiana goes ahead 20-17

Measured at Lincoln airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Indiana · 5-0

Rated 8th in our preseason ratings, 6th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 47-15 @ Rutgers #98 of 668

won by 32 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 29-23 vs NorthwesternTop 25 #13 of 668

won by 6 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 38-0 vs Western Kentucky #58 of 668

won by 38 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 55-0 vs Howard #217 of 668

won by 55 as a 57.5-point favorite

W 52-16 vs North Texas #123 of 668

won by 36 as a 39.5-point favorite

Last three games

Nebraska · 5-0

Rated 40th in our preseason ratings, 19th now, up 21 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 48-23 vs Maryland #97 of 668

won by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 31-13 @ Michigan State #125 of 668

won by 18 as a 6-point favorite

W 34-7 vs North Dakota #110 of 668

won by 27 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 56-7 vs Bowling Green #135 of 668

won by 49 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 49-21 vs Ohio #48 of 668

won by 28 as a 23.5-point favorite

Week by week

Nebraska

Wk 1Wvs Ohio49-21
Wk 2Wvs Bowling Green56-7
Wk 3Wvs North Dakota34-7
Wk 4Wat Michigan State31-13
Wk 5Wvs Maryland48-23

Indiana

Wk 1Wvs North Texas52-16
Wk 2Wvs Howard55-0
Wk 3Wvs Western Kentucky38-0
Wk 4Wvs Northwestern29-23
Wk 5Wat Rutgers47-15

Power rating by week

Indiana is rated 5.1 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nebraska’s explosive plays against Indiana, 87 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Nebraska’s explosive plays against Indiana’s defense
Nebraska offense, 93rd percentile · Indiana defense, 6th
Nebraska’s success rate against Indiana’s defense
Nebraska offense, 63rd percentile · Indiana defense, 99th
Nebraska’s passing EPA against Indiana’s defense
Nebraska offense, 65th percentile · Indiana defense, 81st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

IndianaNebraska

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Indiana leads the series 11-9-3

23 meetings since 1936 · Indiana won the last meeting

2024Indiana 56-7
2022Nebraska 35-21
2019Indiana 38-31
2016Nebraska 27-22
1978Nebraska 69-17

Each line is Nebraska’s chance to win through that meeting. Nebraska is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Indiana fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (63rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Indiana favored by 9.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Indiana by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Nebraska is worth +5.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.

47% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (24-27 home, 11-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 550 miles to get here.

The story going in

Nebraska selling stadium urinals ahead of renovationOct 9, 2026

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Nebraska4th2-0
Indiana5th2-0

Full Big Ten standings

No. 7 Indiana beats Nebraska 20-17