money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Dane Key is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Nebraska
3-0Latest
Big Ten · Matt Rhule, year 4 (22-19) · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 85,458 · 85,995 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#33 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #23 (+14.5) · FPI #21
The marketNebraska by 5.5at Michigan State · our model 78% Nebraska · a number, not a pick
LastW 34–7 vs North Dakota · Sat Sep 19 · Jamal Rule 119 rush yds, 2 TD, 35 rec yds
Nextat Michigan State · Sat Sep 26 · 5 pm ET · Spartan Stadium · Nebraska by 5.5 · series 10-4 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Nebraska · 2026 schedule & results3-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #40 | #50 | -24✓ | Ohio | W 49–21 139 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #37 | #122 | -30.5✓ | Bowling Green | W 56–7 114 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #37 | #124 | -27.5✗ | North Dakota | W 34–7 126 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #33 | #132 | -5.5 | @Michigan State | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #33 | #57 | Maryland | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Indiana | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Oregon | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Washington | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Illinois | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Rutgers | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Ohio State | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Iowa |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | North Dakota | W 34–7 | 493 | 0 | 35:45 | +0.379 | 43.1% | 151.3% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Bowling Green | W 56–7 | 546 | 1 | 31:41 | +0.587 | 60.6% | 136.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Ohio | W 49–21 | 523 | 0 | 30:39 | +0.493 | 51.4% | 154.3% | Most explosive |
| Season average (3 games) | 521 | 0.3 | +0.486 | 51.7% | 147.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Nebraska is the most loyal sad fanbase in America — still selling out for a program that hasn't mattered in October since the '90s — and just watched the quarterback it built its future around leave for Oregon.
Title DroughtSince 1999 · 27 yrs
The take that Nebraska is a museum — a great history and a hollow present, coasting on a sellout streak and 1990s highlights. The fanbase answers with the streak itself: still there, still full…
settled
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Nebraska fans
Nebraska fans
r/CFB
▲ 333 · 1w ago
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season
Game feel53even gamescombined pts / game6th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate4-2white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 13)4th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+4.1competitiveavg scoring margin10th best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo63average paceoffensive plays / game10th fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.10grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)18th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd86,549avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Nebraska has won three of its last five.
Mixed. 5-5 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs Michigan State · away
Season line6.5 winsover -160
EliteSolidGives up the big play
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#40 in field+40000
Big Ten title#11 in market+8000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Nebraska · the story right now
7 storylines developing
What Nebraska's season is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
money down2025 cycle✓ factnew
Jacory Barney Jr. is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Jacory Barney Jr. produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
Emmett Johnson: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jacory Barney Jr. is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Nyziah Hunter is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Nebraska: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
ReplacedNebraska's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downNebraska's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Nebraska · 2026
Outcome band · Nebraska · 2026Nebraska's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsStory arc
Rival pulse
Wisconsin
Bearish-24
Freedom Trophy
Iowa
Mixed+3
Heroes Game
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Nebraska is the program with three national titles, a 25-year drought, and the most patient fanbase in college football.
Offense: EliteDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
Open questions
Active arcs
Cooling
Four-star defensive lineman Nehemiah Ombati picks Nebraska over Michigan State
How will this commitment impact Nebraska's defensive line development?
Cooling
Longtime Nebraska assistant coach George Darlington dies at 87
How will his passing impact the Nebraska football program?
Cooling
Four-star defensive back Jailen Hill commits to Nebraska
How will Hill's addition impact Nebraska's secondary in the future?
Program ledger
The program ledger
since 2025- 2025 · Wk 9Fell out of the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 6-24 at Minnesota
- 2025 · Wk 8Entered the AP Top 25Week 7 · Won 34-31 at Maryland
Roster
Roster Reload - Nebraska
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production46%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#22 nationally247 composite 787.5
Portal Additions17Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses19Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1) — 1 with a next man up identified below
Recruiting Reload#88Depth class
Sin 2 - Dwayne McDougleout 5 - Malcolm HartzogStarter Risk
Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot
LBin 3 - Owen Chamblissout 1 - Roger GradneyNeed Filled
current room: 228 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Coverage 'Backer2025 profilecarries tight ends down the field in coverage
Transferred in
DLin 2 - Jahsear Whittingtonout 2 - Keona DavisEven
current room: 285 lbs avg (2025 roster)
3-Tech Penetrator2025 profiledisrupts the pocket from the interior
QBin 2 - Anthony Colandreaout 2 - Dylan RaiolaEven
current room: 218 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Scrambler2025 profileMoney-downextends plays with his feet until something opens up saves his best for the money downs
Transferred in
IOLin 2 - Brendan Blackout 2 - Houston Ka'aha'aina-TorresEven
current room: 308 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Next man up
Full roster (117 players)
CBAmare Sanders, Andrew Marshall, Blye Hill, Braylen Prude, Danny Odem III, Donovan Jones, Jeremiah Charles, Kahmir Prescott, Mario Buford, Victor Evans III
DTDavid Hoffken, Dylan Berymon, Dylan Parrott, Gabe Moore, Landen Davidson, Malcolm Simpson, Mason Goldman, Owen Stoudmire, Sua Lefotu
EDGEAnthony Jones, Cameron Lenhardt, Conor Connealy, Ethan Duda, Jordan Ochoa, Kade Pietrzak, Mac Markway, Williams Nwaneri, Willis McGahee IV
LBChristian Jones, Dawson Merritt, Derek Wacker, Dexter Foster, Dylan Rogers, Gage Stenger, Jacob Bower, Jase Reynolds, Owen Chambliss, Pierce Mooberry, Tanner Terch, Vincent Genatone, Vincent Shavers Jr., Will Hawthorne
OLAshton Murphy, Brendan Black, Brock Knutson, Claude Mpouma, Elijah Pritchett, Gibson Pyle, Grant Brix, Gunnar Gottula, Hayden Ainsworth, Jacob Brandl, Jake Peters, Justin Evans, Nolan Fennessy, Paul Mubenga, Preston Taumua, Rex Waterman, Sam Sledge, Shawn Hammerbeck, Tree Babalade, Tyler Knaak
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Nebraska
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
BG names starting QB
Rhule's named his guy — and given how rocky first starts have historically been for Husker QBs, the fanbase has every right to watch this one closely before buying in.
- News
Big Ten expands replay review coverage
Big Ten expanding replay coverage hits different when you're a program trying to shed the 'bad call' excuses — Rhule needs wins to be clean, not contested.
- News
Big Ten expands replay review access
Big Ten opening replay review to Nebraska's sideline staff mid-drive isn't glamorous — but for a program still rebuilding trust in officiating outcomes, Rhule needs every structural edge he can get while the roster catches up.
- News
Florida State fires AD Michael Alford
Alford's firing at Florida State is a footnote in Lincoln — Rhule's already got the 3-0 nonconference clean sheet and a coordinator retool that has the Big Ten watching Nebraska differently than it did 18 months ago.
- Recruiting
Nebraska commit suspended for senior year
Pressure already building at safety with one draft departure and a class ranked 88th nationally — a suspended commit doesn't close that gap, it reopens it heading into fall.
- News
Nebraska RB dismissed from team
Rhule's RB room was already thin after one draft departure — losing a scholarship back mid-cycle forces the portal back open before fall camp math even starts.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
+1.2 net portal points
(raw ledger: -1.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)S-7.8
starter risk
LB+7.3
need filled
CB+3.5
low confidence
RB-3.5
K-3.5
low confidence
LS+3.3
low confidence
EDGE-3.1
DL+1.8
QB-0.9
IOL+0.9
WR+0.2
OT+0.1
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Danny Odem III
#51 national
★★★★☆
Claude Mpouma
#168 national
★★★★☆
Dylan Berymon
#238 national
Projects: Nose Anchor — 18 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Nose Anchor archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
11
FL · 2NE · 2AZ · 1CA · 1GA · 1IL · 1LA · 1MS · 1+1 more
FL leads the 2026 class with 2 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
101 signees across 28 states, 2023-2026. NE leads the pull.
That is 37.8% of every high-school FBS signee NE produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Northern Illinois is next. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Nebraska player grew up 626 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
15th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%128–1,074 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi25%28 of 111 players
Farthest3,785 miPreston Taumua · Waipahu, HI
Closest1 miGunnar Gottula · Lincoln, NE
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 111 of 117 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Recruiting & portal buzz
2026 4* DL Dylan Berymon commits to Nebraska
2027 3* WR Kaden Howard commits to Nebraska
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
How it turned out
Belief history
↑
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2024
74th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
74th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
(41st among FBS)
Fans 33pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books
Takeaways
Takeaway conversion
15% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
2 interceptions of 13 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Penalty battle
20 penalties committed, 11 drawn on opponents — ceding 91 yards of field position.
175 penalty yards committed vs. 84 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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