The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Matt Rhule

Followed Scott Frost. Matt Rhule slid Nebraska from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

The journeyman
66–62
2013–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Those guys know who it is, but we’ll probably keep it internal this week.
Cornnation · · the day of Nebraska's 2026 opener
Anthony would play for us right now
FOX Sports
Every single time you're going to see Anthony scramble. He's looking to throw the ball. He’s not looking to go out of bounds or go down or take a sack.
FOX Sports
It will allow him to call the game without a conscience and just go attack
FOX Sports
Honestly, it can break some guys
FOX Sports
You get to play at Nebraska
FOX Sports
You really can't waste a day
News Google

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 4th career season — faster than 19% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #505 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Temple, 4 seasons
+8.4
Regional Program II → National Program III.
Baylor, 3 seasons
−4.2
National Program I → National Program I.
Nebraska, 4 seasons (active)
−3.1
National Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Temple2013–2016▼ 10.5ptBaylor2017–2019▼ 5.9ptNebraska2023–2026▲ 10.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Temple10.5pt#122 of 258 · a typical amount
Baylor5.9pt#215 of 258 · less than most
Nebraska14.1pt#63 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–8 against his rivals. Winless in 6 tries against Lincoln Riley.

Rivalry record
5–8
38.5% · 5 rivals
One-score games
18–28
39.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$49,612,500 (est.)
bigger than 90% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Texas Tech2–167%
TCU1–233%
Iowa0–30%
Colorado1–150%
Wisconsin1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Lincoln Riley0–6
6 meetings, 2017–2025
’17 L · blew a 3-pt lead’18 L’19 L · blew a 25-pt lead’19 L · blew a 3-pt lead’24 L · blew a 14-pt lead’25 L · blew a 8-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–2 0.0%
Power Program
7–25 21.9%
National Program
16–17 48.5%
Regional Program
38–11 77.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.05
#184 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.00
#154 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

job securityOne fan's take

One fan believes Matt Rhule is not a high-level coach and may not remain Nebraska's head coach long-term

I think this year will say a lot about if Rhule will be a long time Nebraska HC or not

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 17, 2026 · via Huskers

Show all 2
program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Matt Rhule is not building a strong program at Nebraska

That seems like a long time for Matt Rhule based on the current football product and the schedules we're going to face. It seems obvious that this class is mostly not going to have a long term impact at Nebraska based on the trajectory of the team.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 10, 2026 · via Huskers

Coaching career

2023–now
Nebraskacaretaker
National Program I → National Program II
Matt Rhule slid Nebraska from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

12th-best Nebraska tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-24.0 pts
#185 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-9.3 pts
#144 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Scott Frost (2018–2022).

Season2023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record5–77–67–60–0
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#25#18#22#88
Style — pass rate
Pass rate35.349.445.945.7
Coordinators
OCMarcus SatterfieldMarcus Satterfield / Glenn ThomasDana Holgorsen / Glenn ThomasDana Holgorsen / Glenn Thomas
DCTony WhiteTony WhiteJohn ButlerRob Aurich
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense26464076
Defense8167624
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%28.545.241.045.1
Red-zone pass%27.342.946.738.9
4th-down go%opp. territory28.635.132.4
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
53
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
97
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-44
#90 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Anthony Colandrea On3 modeled · $2,000,000Williams Nwaneri On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 246 lbs
across 49 of 53 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.8 lbs
#3 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#204 of 255 · less than most
Top states: CA (6), GA (5), MD (4), PA (4), FL (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
63.2
position-weighted
Net
-2.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jeff Sims (QB) from Georgia Tech
Biggest loss: Dylan Raiola (QB) to Oregon
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Tony White → John Butler · 2025
67th pct6th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: John Butler → Rob Aurich · 2026
6th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
219 lbs
6′2″ avg · #189 of 767 · more than most
Running back
207 lbs
6′0″ avg · #410 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
198 lbs
6′1″ avg · #177 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
240 lbs
6′5″ avg · #568 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
311 lbs
6′6″ avg · #296 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
287 lbs
6′4″ avg · #322 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #208 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #283 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys LS via the portal
100%
#1 of 12 stints
Grows K from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
86%
#160 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2024: Beat Boston College 20–15 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl2025: Lost to Utah 22–44 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Ochaun Mathis (2023), Trey Palmer (2023), Ty Robinson (2025), Thomas Fidone II (2025), Emmett Johnson (2026)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Emmett Johnson (2025)

19–19
2017–2019
Baylorcaretaker
Power Program III → National Program I
Matt Rhule slid Baylor from Power Program III to National Program I in 3 seasons.

8th-best Baylor tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+0.1 pts
#114 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-15.1 pts
#163 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jim Grobe (2016–2016) · succeeded by Dave Aranda (2020–2026).

Season201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record1–117–611–3
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#40#29#35
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.749.246.8
Coordinators
OCGlenn Thomas / Jeff NixonGlenn Thomas / Jeff NixonGlenn Thomas / Jeff Nixon
DCPhil SnowPhil SnowPhil Snow
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense318357
Defense33883
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%43.848.746.7
Red-zone pass%46.742.547.8
4th-down go%opp. territory37.832.628.9
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2018: Beat Vanderbilt 45–38 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl2019: Lost to Georgia 14–26 Allstate Sugar Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Kyle Fuller (2017), Jalen Hurd (2019), Denzel Mims (2020), James Lynch (2020), Bravvion Roy (2020), Clay Johnston (2020)

19–20
2013–2016
Templecaretaker
Regional Program II → National Program III
Matt Rhule moved Temple from Regional Program II to National Program III in 4 seasons.

5th-best Temple tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+1.3 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+39.1 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Steve Addazio (2011–2012) · succeeded by Geoff Collins (2017–2018).

Season2013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record2–106–610–410–3
PostseasonL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#69#80#59
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.245.941.7
Coordinators
OCMarcus SatterfieldMarcus SatterfieldGlenn Thomas
DCPhil SnowPhil SnowPhil Snow
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense23660
Defense968389
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%54.238.536.7
Red-zone pass%42.537.534.7
4th-down go%opp. territory26.227.531.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Marcus Satterfield → Glenn Thomas · 2016
36th pct60th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.5% → 36.7% (-1.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 63% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Toledo 17–32 Marmot Boca Raton Bowl2016: Lost to Wake Forest 26–34 Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman

6 NFL Draft picks: Tavon Young (2016), Matt Ioannidis (2016), Tyler Matakevich (2016), Haason Reddick (2017), Dion Dawkins (2017), Nate Hairston (2017)

28–23