Baylor: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2020–now

Dave Aranda Steady

Dave Aranda moved Baylor from National Program I to Power Program III in 7 seasons.

2026 defense ranked in the 98th percentile nationally — elite

+0.8 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 43% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: J.D. Brookhart’s Akron run (2004–2009)

2nd-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Matt Rhule (2017–2019).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	2-7	12-2	6-7	3-9	8-5	5-7	5-3
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#54	#44	#37	#35	#67	#36	#57
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	52.7	39.0	42.3	51.7	45.8	55.5	49.8
Coordinators
OC	Larry Fedora	Jeff Grimes	Jeff Grimes	Jeff Grimes	Jake Spavital	Jake Spavital	Jake Spavital
DC	Ron Roberts	Ron Roberts	Ron Roberts	Matt Powledge	Matt Powledge	Matt Powledge	Joe Klanderman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	15	55	58	33	74	46	63
Defense	58	83	26	7	37	39	98
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	49.6	37.0	40.6	51.6	48.1	59.5	41.3
Red-zone pass%	33.3	34.6	33.6	38.6	35.6	54.2	46.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	36.7	45.3	55.8	50.0	61.4	64.8	41.7

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-8.7 pts

#144 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-13.7 pts

#163 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

#71 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 245 lbs

across 82 of 92 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+8.6 lbs

#29 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#207 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: TX (33), FL (6), OK (5), OH (4), GA (4)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

60.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

60.1

position-weighted

Net

+0.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: D.J. Lagway (QB) from Florida

Biggest loss: Gerry Bohanon (QB) to South Florida

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Larry Fedora → Jeff Grimes · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 49.6% → 37.0% (-12.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 62% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jeff Grimes → Jake Spavital · 2024The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 46.1% → 53.8% (+7.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Ron Roberts → Matt Powledge · 2023The defense collapsed across the change

2-season window either side.

DC: Matt Powledge → Joe Klanderman · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

215 lbs

6′2″ avg · #327 of 767 · middle half

Running back

210 lbs

6′0″ avg · #268 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

194 lbs

6′1″ avg · #368 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

249 lbs

6′4″ avg · #213 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

310 lbs

6′5″ avg · #344 of 779 · middle half

D-line

301 lbs

6′4″ avg · #87 of 753 · top quarter

Linebacker

235 lbs

6′2″ avg · #102 of 772 · top quarter

Cornerback

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #232 of 771 · middle half

Safety

201 lbs

6′1″ avg · #70 of 346 · top quarter

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

75%

#49 of 56 stints

Grows Running back from high school

88%

#189 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2021: Beat Ole Miss 21-7 Allstate Sugar Bowl2022: Lost to Air Force 15-30 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2024: Lost to LSU 31-44 Kinder's Texas Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: William Bradley-King (2021), Jalen Pitre (2022), Tyquan Thornton (2022), JT Woods (2022), Terrel Bernard (2022), Trestan Ebner (2022), Kalon Barnes (2022), Siaki Ika (2023) + 2 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Connor Galvin (2021), Jalen Pitre (2021)

+0.8

41-40

2017–2019

Matt Rhule Steady

Matt Rhule slid the Bears from Power Program III to National Program I in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−4.2 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Lovie Smith’s Illinois run (2016–2020)

7th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Grobe (2016) · succeeded by Dave Aranda (2020–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	1-11	7-6	11-3
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#40	#29	#35
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	52.7	49.2	46.8
Coordinators
OC	Glenn Thomas / Jeff Nixon	Glenn Thomas / Jeff Nixon	Glenn Thomas / Jeff Nixon
DC	Phil Snow	Phil Snow	Phil Snow
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	31	83	57
Defense	33	8	83
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	43.8	48.7	46.7
Red-zone pass%	46.7	42.5	47.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	37.8	32.6	28.9

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+0.1 pts

#111 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-14.9 pts

#166 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Vanderbilt 45-38 Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl2019: Lost to Georgia 14-26 Allstate Sugar Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Jalen Hurd (2019), Denzel Mims (2020), James Lynch (2020), Bravvion Roy (2020), Clay Johnston (2020)

−4.2

19-20

2016

Jim Grobe Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

7-6

2008–2015

Art Briles Builder

Art Briles raised Baylor from Regional Program V to Power Program III.

Swung 20.2 points of pass rate — #29 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

+34.7 pts over 8 seasons · top 1% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Pete Carroll’s USC run (2001–2009)

1st-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Guy Morriss (2003–2007) · succeeded by Jim Grobe (2016).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Record & result
Record	4-8	4-8	7-6	10-3	8-5	11-2	11-2	10-3
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#58	#53	#38	#46	#26	#27	#25	#36
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	37.6	55.5	50.2	42.4	44.3	41.7	45.6	35.3
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	Philip Montgomery	Kendal Briles
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	Phil Bennett	Phil Bennett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	73	30	90	99	96	88	96	91
Defense	34	31	2	6	46	98	38	54
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	31.3	53.2	49.4	49.5	43.1	43.1	51.4	42.5
Red-zone pass%	22.9	48.4	38.9	39.4	30.7	22.1	29.3	23.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	64.5	32.3	23.5	37.0	46.0	50.0	51.4	61.9

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+33.1 pts

#10 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-2.9 pts

#118 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Philip Montgomery → Kendal Briles · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 51.4% → 42.5% (-8.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2010: Lost to Illinois 14-38 Texas Bowl2011: Beat Washington 67-56 Valero Alamo Bowl2012: Beat UCLA 49-26 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl2013: Lost to UCF 42-52 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl2014: Lost to Michigan State 41-42 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2015: Beat North Carolina 49-38 Russell Athletic Bowl

26 NFL Draft picks: Jason Smith (2009), J.D. Walton (2010), David Gettis (2010), Phil Taylor (2011), Danny Watkins (2011), Mikail Baker (2011), Jay Finley (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012) + 18 more

+34.7

65-37

2003–2007

Guy Morriss Steady

Guy Morriss slid the Bears from Regional Program IV to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

Averaged a 59% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

−1.5 pts over 5 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Horton’s UNLV run (1994–1998)

14th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Kevin Steele (1999–2002) · succeeded by Art Briles (2008–2015).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Record & result
Record	3-9	3-8	5-6	4-8	3-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	#93	#60	#49	#73
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	51.9	50.5	68.5	65.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	4	18	42	12
Defense	—	1	16	9	6
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	42.6	43.4	67.6	61.7
Red-zone pass%	—	50.0	50.0	67.3	70.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	43.5	24.2	28.6	29.2

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Khari Long (2005), Willie Andrews (2006), Daniel Sepulveda (2007), C.J. Wilson (2007)

−1.5

18-40

1999–2002

Kevin Steele Steady≈

Kevin Steele slid the Bears from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

−15.8 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 2% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mark Snyder’s Marshall run (2005–2009)

13th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Roberts (1997–1998) · succeeded by Guy Morriss (2003–2007).

2 NFL Draft picks: Gary Baxter (2001), Ethan Kelley (2003)

−15.8

9-36

1997–1998

Dave Roberts Short tenure

4-18

1993–1996

Chuck Reedy Steady

Chuck Reedy slid the Bears from National Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

−6.5 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 27% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Charlie Sadler’s Northern Illinois run (1991–1995)

8th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Grant Teaff (1972–1992) · succeeded by Dave Roberts (1997–1998).

Season	1993	1994	1995	1996
Record & result
Record	5-6	7-5	7-4	4-7
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1994: Lost to Washington State 3-10 Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Robert Strait (1994), Steve Strahan (1995), George McCullough (1997)

−6.5

23-22

1972–1992

Grant Teaff Builder

Grant Teaff raised Baylor from Regional Program III to National Program I.

+24.6 pts over 21 seasons · top 17% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Steve Spurrier’s Florida run (1990–2001)

5th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Beall (1969–1971) · succeeded by Chuck Reedy (1993–1996).

Season	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
Record & result
Record	5-6	2-9	8-4	3-6-2	7-3-1	5-6	3-8	8-4	10-2	5-6	4-6-1	7-4-1	5-6	9-3	9-3	6-5	6-5	5-6	6-4-1	8-4	7-5
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	—	L bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1974: Lost to Penn State 20-41 Bowl1979: Beat Clemson 24-18 Bowl1980: Lost to Alabama 2-30 Bowl1983: Lost to Oklahoma State 14-24 Bowl1985: Beat LSU 21-7 Bowl1986: Beat Colorado 21-9 Bowl1991: Lost to Indiana 0-24 Bowl1992: Beat Arizona 20-15 Bowl

49 NFL Draft picks: Derrel Luce (1975), Steve Beaird (1975), Phillip Kent (1975), Mike Hughes (1976), Leslie Benson (1976), Gary Green (1977), Gary Gregory (1977), Mike Nelms (1977) + 41 more

+24.6

128-105-6

1969–1971

Bill Beall Steady≈

Bill Beall slid the Bears from National Program III to Regional Program I in 3 seasons.

−14.0 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Ralston’s San José State run (1993–1996)

12th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed John Bridgers (1959–1968) · succeeded by Grant Teaff (1972–1992).

−14.0

3-28

1959–1968

John Bridgers Steady

John Bridgers slid the Bears from Power Program III to National Program I in 10 seasons.

−8.1 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 7% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Stockstill’s Middle Tennessee run (2006–2023)

6th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Sam Boyd (1956–1958) · succeeded by Bill Beall (1969–1971).

−8.1

49-53-1

1956–1958

Sam Boyd Steady

Sam Boyd held Baylor at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

+0.5 pts over 3 seasons · top 32% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tony Levine’s Houston run (2012–2014)

3rd-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed George Sauer (1950–1955) · succeeded by John Bridgers (1959–1968).

+0.5

15-15-1

1950–1955

George Sauer Steady

George Sauer moved Baylor from National Program II to Power Program III in 6 seasons.

+9.6 pts over 6 seasons · top 17% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chuck Amato’s NC State run (2000–2006)

4th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Woodruff (1947–1949) · succeeded by Sam Boyd (1956–1958).

+9.6

38-21-3

1947–1949

Bob Woodruff Steady

Bob Woodruff moved the Bears from Regional Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

+7.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 8% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Smith’s Louisville run (1998–2002)

10th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Frank Kimbrough (1945–1946) · succeeded by George Sauer (1950–1955).

+7.6

19-10-2

1941–1942, 1945–1946

Frank Kimbrough Steady

Frank Kimbrough slid the Bears from National Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

−7.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: George Chaump’s Navy run (1990–1994)

9th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Morley Jennings (1936–1940) · succeeded by Bob Woodruff (1947–1949).

−7.0

15-23-3

1936–1940

Morley Jennings Steady

Morley Jennings held Baylor at National Program II for 5 seasons.

11th-best Baylor tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Frank Kimbrough (1941–1942).

National Program II

31-17-2