The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kevin Steele

Kevin Steele inherited a Power Program I Auburn and won with it.

The ascent

9–37

1999–2020 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Baylor, 4 seasons

−13.0

Regional Program II → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–4 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Bob Stoops.

Rivalry record

0–4

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

2–3

40.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Texas Tech0–40%

The toughest matchup

vs. Bob Stoops0–4

4 meetings, 1999–2002

’99 L’00 L’01 L’02 L

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

0–4 0.0%

Power Program

0–13 0.0%

National Program

0–7 0.0%

Regional Program

7–11 38.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.22

#77 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.31

#35 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–2020

Auburninheritor

Power Program I → Power Program I

Kevin Steele inherited a Power Program I Auburn and won with it.

4th-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-1.4 pts

#117 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-37.5 pts

#202 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Bryan Harsin (2021–2022).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Wide receiver from high school

100%

#230 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2020: Lost to Northwestern 19–35 Vrbo Citrus Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Derrick Brown (2020), Noah Igbinoghene (2020), Marlon Davidson (2020), Jack Driscoll (2020), Daniel Thomas (2020), Prince Tega Wanogho (2020), Anthony Schwartz (2021), Jamien Sherwood (2021) + 2 more

0–1

1999–2002

Baylorcaretakerborderline

Regional Program I → Regional Program II

Kevin Steele slid Baylor from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

15th-best Baylor tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Dave Roberts (1997–1998) · succeeded by Guy Morriss (2003–2007).

4 NFL Draft picks: Derrick Fletcher (1999), Kelvin Garmon (1999), Gary Baxter (2001), Ethan Kelley (2003)

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